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| 1 | 新疆气候的干湿变化及其趋势预估显示文摘利用新疆气象局提供的90个气象台站的连续观测记录,计算了1961-2003年新疆地区年平均和季节平均自适应Palmer干旱指数的气候态及其变化趋势,表明新疆地区气候就平均态而言整体上属于正常的气候条件,研究时段内年平均和季节平均气候以湿润化趋势为主要变化特征,定性的分析显示地表气温的持续上升倾向于引起干旱化,而降水的增加则有利于气候的湿润化趋势。在SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下,21世纪90年代新疆地区地表气温的升高会导致干旱化的发生,而降水的增加则有利于湿润化,在二者的联合作用下,新疆地区的干湿状况可能将发生一定程度的变化。 | 姜大膀 苏明峰 魏荣庆 刘宝 | 2009 | 大气科学2009，33，1： | 71 |
| 2 | 中纬度亚洲现代间冰期气候变化的“西风模式”讨论显示文摘中纬度亚洲地区存在主要受季风环流影响的东南部湿润地区(简称季风区)和主要受西风环流控制的内陆干旱区(包括青藏高原北部高寒干旱区,简称西风区)。根据对近年来新发表的气候变化记录证据梳理总结,发现西风区在中—晚全新世气候湿润,与亚洲季风在早—中全新世强盛的格局显著不同。过去千年的西风区中世纪暖期干旱,而小冰期相对湿润,与此相对,万象洞石笋氧同位素记录则显示季风降水在中世纪暖期时整体处于高值,在小冰期处于低值段。在近百年,尤其是近50a,西北干旱区湿度增加,而季风影响范围内的西北东部和华北等地变得更干。不仅如此,在分属西风和季风影响区的青藏高原北部和南部,年代际—百年尺度上降水变化也表现出反相位关系。据此我们提出,亚洲中部西风带控制区在现代间冰期从数千年到年代际的各个时间尺度上均存在不同于季风区的湿度(降水)变化模式,称之为现代间冰期气候变化的西风模式。 | 陈发虎 陈建徽 黄伟 | 2009 | 地学前缘2009，16，6： | 63 |
| 3 | Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming显示文摘This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia (ACA) and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend (0.7 mm/10 a) in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions (I West Kazakhstan region, II East Kazakhstan region, III Central Asia Plains region, IV Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region). The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions (regions I and II, approximately north of 45°N), whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring (accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation) in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA (subregion V) during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions I and III. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the midto late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region. | CHEN FaHu HUANG Wei JIN LiYa CHEN JianHui WANG JinSong | 2011 | Science China Earth Sciences2011，54，12： | 64 |
| 4 | 关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化显示文摘过去半个世纪,中国经历了北方的'西湿东干'和东部的'南涝北旱'的降水分布格局。近十几年来,这种降水长期变化的分布格局是维持还是发生了变化?针对这个问题,本文基于年降水观测数据、自矫正的帕尔默干旱指数sc PDSI、地表湿润指数SWI及GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)卫星数据反演的陆地水储量(TWS)对中国区域干旱化问题进行了再分析。结果表明,近16年(2001~2016年),中国东部地区(100°E以东)'南涝北旱'的格局正在发生显著的变化,长江上中游及江淮流域已转为显著的干旱化趋势,而华北地区的降水已转为增加趋势,东部'南旱北涝'的格局基本形成;北方过去的'西湿东干'也转变为'西干东湿'的空间分布特征。显然,中国区域的降水格局在2001年后发生了明显的年代尺度转折性变化,两种常用干旱指数sc PDSI和SWI的分析也证明了这一点。但GRACE的陆地水储量(TWS)的分析却显示,最近16年来,中国东部'南涝北旱'的格局仍未发生变化,北方大部分地区仍然处于干旱化的时段,且有加剧的趋势,其原因有待于进一步研究。 | 马柱国 符淙斌 杨庆 郑子彦 吕美霞 李明星 段亚雯 陈亮 | 2018 | 大气科学2018，42，4： | 64 |
| 5 | 基于SPEI的云南省夏玉米生长季干旱时空特征分析显示文摘基于云南省29个典型气象站1953年-2011年的气象资料和16个州(市)1979年-2011年的玉米生产资料,分析云南省夏玉米生长季4个时间尺度的干旱风险时空变化特征,计算其标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI),并验证了其与玉米减产率的正相关性。结果表明,SPEI能够较好地反映云南省历史干旱变化的时空特征和夏玉米的产量变化情况:①随着时间尺度的增加,SPEI值变化幅度减小,干旱频率降低、持续时间增长。3个月尺度的SPEI-3和6个月尺度的SPEI-6可体现干湿季节变化,12个月尺度的SPEI-12更能反映干旱年际变化情况;②从云南夏玉米不同生长期的干旱频率看,播种期>花丝期>成熟期;③从干旱频率空间分布特征看,总体上是滇东北>滇中>滇西南;④从年代际变化特征看,云南省玉米全生育期干旱呈加重趋势,以昆明市为例,玉米全生育期干旱指数Sep-SPEI-6最小值出现在2010年;⑤从统计分析结果看,云南省16个州(市)SPEI与玉米减产率均呈正相关关系,其中年均SPEI-3、年均SPEI-6、玉米全生育期干旱指数Sep-SPEI-6与玉米减产率相关性较大,表明了玉米生长季的干湿情况对玉米产量的影响较大。 | 许玲燕 王慧敏 段琪彩 马剑锋 | 2013 | 资源科学2013，35，5： | 56 |
| 6 | Tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction since AD 1842 in the Ortindag Sand Land,east Inner Mongolia显示文摘epartment of Wood Science, University of Hamburg, Hamburg D-21031, GermanyBased on three Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) and one Meyer spruce (Picea meyeri Rehd. et Wils.) ring-width chronologies, a 163-year drought history was reconstructed in the eastern Ortindag Sand Land. All tree-ring chronologies show large inter-annual variations and strong common signals and fairly consistent variation between different chronologies, indicating that they are excellent proxy of regional climate. A regional chronology (RC) was established by averaging the four standard chronologies and further employed for the analysis and climatic reconstruction. The analysis revealed that tree growth is primarily limited by low precipitation in February-March and June-July and high temperature in May-July. In addition, RC has high correlations with the monthly Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) prior to and during the growing season because the PDSI considers the accumulation of the droughts. Response function analysis revealed that RC only exhibits significant correlations with the PDSI in June and July (close to the 95% significance level in May). Because May―July is a critical period for tree growth, the average May-July PDSI (PDSI5-7) was reconstructed back to 1842 using RC in the Ortindag Sand Land. The reconstruction can explain 52% of the PDSI variance and the equation was rather stable over time. It agrees well with the variation of the average dryness/wetness indices in North China,and captures the decline process of the East Asian summer monsoon since the mid-1960s. It is worth noting that the Ortindag Sand Land has experienced the most severe drought in the recent 40 years based on the 163-year drought reconstruction. Like summer precipitation in North China the reconstructed PDSI5-7 also displays a 20-year oscillation. | LIANG ErYuan SHAO XueMei LIU HongYan ECKSTEIN Dieter | 2007 | Chinese Science Bulletin2007，52，19： | 37 |
| 7 | 基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析显示文摘利用黄淮海平原45个气象站点1961—2014年月值气象数据,基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型计算了标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对黄淮海平原近54年干旱变化趋势、发生频率和持续性特征进行了分析,并探讨了SPEI指数与河南、河北和山东省农业干旱面积的关系,结果表明:(1)改用Penman-Monteith蒸散公式后,SPEI干旱指数在黄淮海平原呈整体上升趋势,即趋于湿润;(2)近54年干旱演变具有明显的年代际差异,20世纪60年代干旱频率最高,而21世纪初(2000—2014)干旱频率整体偏低;(3)黄淮海平原干旱发生具有持续性的特点,20世纪60年代遭受的持续性干旱最为严重,平均干旱持续时长约2.6个月,21世纪初下降到1.5个月;(4)河南、河北和山东省的农业干旱面积年际变化表明,干旱面积呈减少趋势,2000年以后年均受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积比2000年之前分别下降了58.0%、44.4%和49.1%;(5)农业干旱面积与SPEI具有中等以上的相关强度,其中对山东省受灾、成灾和绝收面积相关系数r达到-0.7以上,表明基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型的SPEI指数在黄淮海平原具有良好的适用性。 | 李翔翔 居辉 刘勤 李迎春 秦晓晨 | 2017 | 生态学报2017，37，6： | 31 |
| 8 | 华北平原1960-2009年气象干旱的时空变化特征显示文摘华北平原地处东亚大陆性季风气候区,是世界上气候极脆弱的区域之一,干旱灾害频发。依据多年平均降雨等值线将华北平原划分为3个子区域(A区雨量<600 mm,600 mm≤B区雨量≤750 mm,C区雨量>750 mm),基于1960-2009年60个站的逐日气象资料,采用修正的Palmer干旱指数(PDSI)、M-K检测法和EOF分析法研究了该地区近50年气象干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明,PDSI指数能较好地表征华北平原气象干旱的时空变化过程,其干旱的空间分布主要呈南-北和东南-西北递增的格局,干旱过程通常持续两年以上,季节连旱现象明显,年际变化和年代际变化十分显著。A区干旱最为严重且呈显著增长趋势,其突变点大致为1983年;B区自1970年后进入干旱频发期,持续时间达20年之久;C区各级干旱频率均呈下降趋势,大致以1997年前后为突变点。 | 卢洪健 莫兴国 胡实 | 2012 | 自然灾害学报2012，21，6： | 29 |
| 9 | 中国干湿区变化与预估显示文摘本文采用干湿指数对1962~2011年中国干湿区范围变化进行了集中分析,并利用CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)模式对其变化趋势开展了预估研究。结果表明,1962~2011年平均极端干旱区、干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区和湿润区分别占中国陆地总面积的2.8%、11.7%、22.4%、32.6%和30.5%。期间,中国区域年干湿指数总体上呈现下降趋势,空间上表现为西部湿润化和东部干旱化的特征。显著缩小的是湿润区和极端干旱区,半湿润区、半干旱区和干旱区则显著扩大,这表明中国气候敏感区域在扩张。春季和秋季干湿指数变化趋势的空间分布与年平均的较为一致,冬季西北呈干旱化,夏季东南部地区为湿润化。相对于参考时段1986~2005年,在RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)情景下18个气候模式中位数的预估结果中,降水仅在东南南部减少,而潜在蒸散发在全区域增加,由于潜在蒸散发的增量超过了降水的增幅,中国区域将整体趋于干旱化,仅在西北地区呈湿润化特征;未来湿润区、干旱区和极端干旱区缩小,气候敏感性高的半湿润区和半干旱区仍将扩大。 | 姜江 姜大膀 林一骅 | 2017 | 大气科学2017，41，1： | 30 |
| 10 | 近50年来中国干旱化特征分析显示文摘利用基于网格的综合气象干旱指数,系统分析了中国干旱的空间分布、发生频率、严重程度、持续时间和干旱范围等随时间的变化,揭示了近50年来中国的干旱化特征:自辽河平原—海河平原—黄土高原—四川盆地—云贵高原形成一个干旱化带状区域,干旱频率增加,干旱较为严重;干旱化带状区域内辽宁、河北(包括北京市和天津市)、山西和陕西四省区,均呈现干旱历时增长、强度增大、范围增加的显著干旱化趋势,特别是20世纪90年代中期以来,干旱连年发生,旱情较为严重。 | 陆桂华 闫桂霞 吴志勇 何海 | 2010 | 水利水电技术2010，41，3： | 27 |
| 11 | The Interannual Variability of Summer Rainfall in the Arid and Semiarid Regions of Northern China and Its Association with the Northern Hemisphere Circumglobal Teleconnection显示文摘Using the latest daily observational rainfall datasets for the period 1961–2008, the present study investigates the interannual variability of June–September (JJAS) mean rainfall in northern China. The regional characteristics of JJAS mean rainfall are revealed by a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis. The analysis identifies three regions of large interannual variability of JJAS rainfall: North China (NC), Northeast China (NEC), and the Taklimakan Desert in Northwest China (TDNWC). Summer rainfall over NC is shown to have displayed a remarkable dry period from the late 1990s; while over NEC, decadal-scale variation with a significant decreasing trend in the last two decades is found, and over TDNWC, evidence of large interannual variability is revealed. Results also show that the interannual variability of JJAS rainfall in northern China is closely associated with the Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). Correlation coefficients between the CGT index and regional-averaged JJAS mean rainfall over NC and NEC were calculated, revealing values of up to 0.50 and 0.53, respectively, both of which exceeded the 99% confidence level. | 黄刚 刘永 黄荣辉 | 2011 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2011，28，2： | 27 |
| 12 | Humid Medieval Warm Period recorded by magnetic characteristics of sediments from Gonghai Lake, Shanxi, North China显示文摘Variations in monsoon strength, moisture or precipitation in eastern China during the MWP reflected by different climatic records have shown apparent discrepancies. Here, detailed environmental magnetic investigations and mineralogical analyses were conducted on lacustrine sediments of Core GH09B1 (2.8 m long) from Gonghai Lake, Shanxi, North China, concerning the monsoon history during the MWP. The results demonstrate that the main magnetic mineral is magnetite. The sediments with relatively high magnetic mineral concentrations were characterized by relatively fine magnetic grain sizes, which were formed in a period of relatively strong pedogenesis and high precipitation. In contrast, the sediments with low magnetic mineral concentrations reflected an opposite process. The variations of magnetic parameters in Gonghai Lake sediments were mainly controlled by the degree of pedogenesis in the lake drainage basin, which further indicated the strength of the Asian summer monsoon. The variations in the and S 300 parameters of the core clearly reveal the Asian summer monsoon history over the last 1200 years in the study area, suggesting generally abundant precipitation and a strong summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, AD 910–1220), which is supported by pollen evidence. Furthermore, this 3–6-year resolution environmental magnetic record indicates a dry event around AD 980–1050, interrupting the generally humid MWP. The summer monsoon evolution over the last millennium recorded by magnetic parameters in sediments from Gonghai Lake correlates well with historical documentation (North China) and speleothem oxygen isotopes (Wanxiang Cave), as well as precipitation modeling results (extratropical East Asia), which all indicate a generally humid MWP within which centennial-scale moisture variability existed. It is thus demonstrated that environmental magnetic parameters could be used as an effective proxy for monsoon climate variations in high-resolution lacustrine sediments. | LIU JianBao CHEN FaHu CHEN JianHui XIA DunSheng XU QingHai WANG ZongLi LI YueCong | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，23： | 28 |
| 13 | Definition of the core zone of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”, and its controlling factors during the instrumental period显示文摘The term 'westerlies-dominated climatic regime' describes the pattern of precipitation/moisture variations between westerliesdominated arid Central Asia(ACA) and mid-latitude monsoon-dominated Asia on decadal to multi-millennial time scales. However, no attempts have been made to define its core region and the possible physical mechanisms responsible during the period of instrumental observations. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of summer and winter precipitation on interannual to decadal time scales over mid-latitudes of the Eurasian continent using Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis. Our results suggest the existence of an opposing pattern of summer precipitation variations between ACA and mid-latitude monsoon-dominated Asia and Mediterranean on decadal time scales. Based on these results, the core region influenced by the westerlies is outlined, including arid central Asia and Xinjiang in China(36°–54°N, 50°–90°E). By using monthly NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the relationship between the 'westerlies-dominated climatic regime' and atmospheric circulation were also analyzed. The combination of the zonal climatic teleconnection pattern and anomalous Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation(ISMP) causes the precipitation characteristics of the 'westerlies-dominated climatic regime' precipitation pattern. In addition, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) may also have an important effect on the 'westerlies-dominated climatic regime'. | HUANG Wei CHEN JianHui ZHANG XiaoJian FENG Song CHEN FaHu | 2015 | Science China Earth Sciences2015，58，5： | 24 |
| 14 | Interannual precipitation variations in the mid-latitude Asia and their association with large-scale atmospheric circulation显示文摘This study analyzed the spatial differences of the precipitation variations in the mid-latitude Asia and their possible physical mechanisms during 1960–2009.The annual precipitation showed an opposite variations between the westerlies-dominated arid Central Asia(ACA)and monsoon-dominated North China(NC)during the study period.Given the different contributions of seasonal precipitation to annual total precipitation in ACA and NC,the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the major precipitation seasons(winter in ACA/summer in NC)were analyzed.In winter,negative North Atlantic Oscillation may cause negative height anomalies over the north side and positive anomalies over the south side of the ACA.Together,the enhanced pressure gradient and anomalous westerly wind brings more water vapor to ACA,and leaves less precipitation in NC.In summer,the low-pressure anomalies in Northeast China,along with a weaker summer monsoon and negative height anomalies in Eastern Europe together contribute to reduced(excessive)summer precipitation in NC(ACA).The interactions between ENSO and NAO may result in the opposite precipitation variations between ACA and NC.A significant 2–3-year cycle is identified in ACA,which is linked to the variations of westerly circulation in the middle troposphere. | HUANG Wei CHEN FaHu FENG Song CHEN JianHui ZHANG XiaoJian | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，32： | 21 |
| 15 | Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China显示文摘The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven drought indices during 1961-2013 are consistent,obvious differences exist among the values of drought areas,which might be attributable to the definitions of the drought indices in addition to climatic change. | YANG Qing LI MingXing ZHENG ZiYan MA ZhuGuo | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，4： | 21 |
| 16 | 基于SPEI的西南农业区气象干旱时空演变特征显示文摘干旱已成为西南农业区的具有一定破坏力的自然灾害,研究干旱的时空变化对该区干旱的评估、预测具有重要的现实意义。根据西南农业区1962~2012年月气象资料,利用Penman-Monteith公式计算蒸散发和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)值;采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall方法、小波分析和旋转经验正交函数(REOF)等方法分析了西南农业区干旱时空变化。研究结果表明:(1)西南农业区整体呈干旱化趋势;2000年以来年、四季变干趋势更加明显;秋季变干趋势显著;年均SPEI指数不存在显著突变点;年和四季干湿变化均存在2~8 a左右的振荡周期。(2)根据REOF分解的前6个空间模态,将西南农业区划分成6个干湿特征区域:云南高原东部区、汉中盆地区、东部山地区、云南高原西部区、四川盆地区、贵州高原区;其中云南高原东部区变干趋势显著,汉中盆地区和东部山地区有变湿润趋势,但并不明显;6个分区干湿变化普遍存在2~6 a左右的振荡周期。研究结果可为西南农业区防旱、抗旱提供科学参考。 | 李军 王兆礼 黄泽勤 钟睿达 卓圣峰 陈希贤 | 2016 | 长江流域资源与环境2016，25，7： | 20 |
| 17 | 水分减少与增温处理对冬小麦生物量和土壤呼吸的影响显示文摘通过田间控制试验,设置对照(CK)、水分减少30%(W)、增温2℃(T)、水分减少30%+增温2℃(TW)这4种不同处理,利用静态箱-气相色谱法测定土壤呼吸,研究水分减少与增温处理对冬小麦生物量和土壤呼吸的影响.结果表明,在拔节-孕穗期,T和TW显著增加了冬小麦地上生物量,增幅分别为46.0%(P=0.002)和19.8%(P=0.032);T和TW也显著增加了收获的地上生物量,增幅分别为19.8%(P=0.050)和34.6%(P=0.028);而W对地上生物量无显著影响;W、T和TW处理都没有显著改变地下生物量.相比于CK,T和W对土壤呼吸平均速率没有显著影响(P>0.05);TW使土壤呼吸平均速率降低了22.4%(P=0.049).T降低了土壤呼吸温度敏感性系数((Q_(10)).本研究表明水分与增温的复合处理对农田生态系统产生了与单—因子处理不同的生态效应. | 吴杨周 陈健 胡正华 谢燕 陈书涛 张雪松 申双和 陈曦 | 2016 | 环境科学2016，37，1： | 17 |
| 18 | Modeling spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture in China显示文摘On the basis of station observations,an atmospheric field (ObsFC) was constructed for the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5).The model (CLM3.5 driven with ObsFC,hereafter referred as to CLM3.5/ObsFC) was used to simulate soil moisture (SM) from 1951 to 2008 in China.The resulting SM was compared with in situ observations,remote-sensing data and estimations made by various land models,indicating that CLM3.5/ObsFC is capable of reproducing the temporospatial characteristics and long-term variation trends of SM over China.Using an in situ observation-based forcing field improves the simulation of SM.Analysis of SM simulated using CLM3.5/ObsFC shows that the overall spatial pattern of SM was characterized by a gradually decreasing and alternating distribution of arid-humid zones from the southeast to northwest.Regionally averaged SM was the driest over southern Xinjiang Province and western Inner Mongolia,while the most humid regions were located over the Northeast Plain,Jianghuai region and the Yangtze River basin.The long-term variation trends of SM were generally characterized by increases in arid and humid regions and decreases in semiarid regions.Moreover,the variation was relatively intense from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s in the arid region.The time series was more stable in the humid region except for a period near 1970 and after the year 2003.A downward trend was most prominent in the semiarid region from the 1990s to the end of the time series.For 1951-2008,in the arid,semiarid and humid regions,the SM volume percentage changed by 2.35,-1.26 and 0.08,respectively.The variation trends and intensity remarkably differed among the different regions,with the most notable changes being over the arid and semiarid regions north of 35°N. | LI MingXing MA ZhuGuo NIU Guo-Yue | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，17： | 17 |
| 19 | 全球不同空间尺度陆地年降水的年代尺度变化特征显示文摘基于1951~2010年GPCC(Global Precipitation Climatology Centre)的逐月降水数据,利用集合经验模分解法(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,简称EEMD法)对全球、东西半球、五个大陆和四个典型干旱半干旱区等不同空间尺度年降水量的年代尺度特征进行了研究,区分了不同空间尺度上降水的年代际变化及其长期趋势。结果发现:(1)全球陆地平均降水既存在年代际的周期振荡,又存在长期变化的趋势,降水的年代际周期振荡的强度远大于降水的长期趋势,两者的共同作用使得全球陆地平均降水呈现以年代际周期振荡为主的特征。(2)在半球尺度,2000年以前,东、西半球具有明显相反的年代尺度变化特征,东半球变干(降水减少),西半球变湿(降水增加)。(3)1951~2010年,欧亚大陆和非洲大陆与北美、南美和澳洲大陆的年代际振荡和趋势存在着一个近似反位相的关系;干旱化与干旱时段是完全不同的两个过程,两者所处的时段也不同;近10年(2001~2010年)全球五个大陆可能将进入一个相对湿润的时段。(4)四个典型干旱半干旱区降水的年代尺度变化具有明显的区域差异。总体来说,华北和北非与北美和中亚降水在长期趋势及年代际振荡上具有反位相的特征。华北和北非的年代际振荡具有近似的位相。在最近几十年,北美和中亚同处于湿润时段,但前者开始于1975年,后者开始于1985年。此外,中亚的第一个湿润时段(1959~1968年)却对应北美的干旱时段。 | 徐保梁 杨庆 马柱国 | 2017 | 大气科学2017，41，3： | 15 |
| 20 | 1982~1999年中国地区叶面积指数变化及其与气候变化的关系显示文摘利用1982~1999年AVHRR Pathfinder卫星遥感观测的植被叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)资料和中国730个气象台站的温度、降水观测资料,研究了中国不同地区(东北地区、华北地区、长江流域、华南地区和西南地区)LAI的季节、生长季和年变化,及其与气候变化(温度、降水)的关系。结果表明,在中国大部分地区,年平均LAI和生长季平均LAI均是增加的。由于区域和季节气候的差异,LAI变化趋势具有明显的空间和季节非均一性。从区域平均的角度来看,不同地区年和生长季平均LAI都有增加趋势,并且在华南地区增加最快。因而,在全球变化背景下,华南地区可能是潜在的碳汇。在季节尺度上,各地区区域平均LAI基本上都是增加的,并且都在春季增加最快。温度变化是LAI变化的主要原因。但是人类活动如农业活动、城市化等对华北平原、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲等地区LAI变化的作用不容忽视。 | 彭飞 孙国栋 | 2017 | 气候与环境研究2017，22，2： | 14 |
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