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| 1 | 四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎密切接触者转确诊病例特征分析显示文摘目的分析四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎密切接触者转为确诊病例的流行病学特征,为密切接触者的判定和管理提供更多依据。方法通过信息系统及现场调查,收集四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例的人口学特征、流行特征、接触史等数据,进行回顾性统计分析。结果截至2019-02-20,四川省累计报告520例新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例,其中204例(39.23%)具有明确的与确诊病例密切接触史。204例密切接触者转确诊病例中,170例(86.12%)为轻型及普通型,34例(13.88%)为重型及危重型,平均年龄为44.9±18.7岁,男性96例(47.06%),15岁以下儿童12例(5.88%),职业类型以农民及民工为主(32.84%)。自2月以来,密切接触者转确诊病例占新增病例的比例不断上升,2月中旬后比例有所下降。174例具有完整接触信息的病例中,在上代病例发病前已与其发生接触的病例占33.91%,与上代病例的关系主要为亲属(79.31%),密切接触通常发生在日常生活中(51.15%)和聚餐时(20.11%),且多为高频接触(77.59%)。单日接触病例中平均潜伏期长达9.5天。结论早期识别、隔离和保护密切接触者对于防止本地感染和传播具有重要作用,是当前防控工作重点,建议对密切接触者进行连续核酸检测,进一步加强密切接触者的判定及管理。 | 苏茜 邱乐平 吴玺 周玉锦 袁珩 何金戈 毛素玲 | 2020 | 预防医学情报杂志2020，36，10： | 6 |
| 2 | Estimating effective reproduction number using generation time versus serial interval,with application to COVID-19 in the Greater Toronto Area,Canada显示文摘BACKGROUND.The effective reproduction number Re(t)is a critical measure of epidemic potential.Re(t)can be calculated in near real time using an incidence time series and the generation time distribution:the time between infection events in an infector-infectee pair.In calculating Re(t),the generation time distribution is often approximated by the serial interval distribution:the time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair.However,while generation time must be positive by definition,serial interval can be negative if transmission can occur before symptoms,such as in COVID-19,rendering such an approximation improper in some contexts.METHODS.We developed a method to infer the generation time distribution from parametric definitions of the serial interval and incubation period distributions.We then compared estimates of Re(t)for COVID-19 in the Greater Toronto Area of Canada using:negative-permitting versus non-negative serial interval distributions,versus the inferred generation time distribution.RESULTS.We estimated the generation time of COVID-19 to be Gamma-distributed with mean 3.99 and standard deviation 2.96 days.Relative to the generation time distribution,non-negative serial interval distribution caused overestimation of Re(t)due to larger mean,while negative-permitting serial interval distribution caused underestimation of Re(t)due to larger variance.IMPLICATIONS.Approximation of the generation time distribution of COVID-19 with non-negative or negative-permitting serial interval distributions when calculating Re(t)may result in over or underestimation of transmission potential,respectively. | Jesse Knight Sharmistha Mishra | 2020 | Infectious Disease Modelling2020，5，1： | 3 |
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