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| 1 | Global warming, human-induced carbon emissions, and their uncertainties显示文摘In recent decades, there have been a number of debates on climate warming and its driving forces. Based on an extensive literature review, we suggest that (1) climate warming occurs with great uncertainty in the magnitude of the temperature increase; (2) both human activities and natural forces contribute to climate change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quantify; and (3) the dominant role of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (including CO 2 ) in the global warming claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration. More efforts should be made in order to clarify these uncertainties. | FANG JingYun ZHU JiangLing WANG ShaoPeng YUE Chao SHEN HaiHua | 2011 | Science China Earth Sciences2011，54，10： | 37 |
| 2 | Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau显示文摘Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343-425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2-3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again. | LIU YU CAI QiuFang SONG HuiMing AN ZhiSheng Hans W. LINDERHOLM | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，28： | 23 |
| 3 | 不同时间尺度下的大气CO2浓度与气候变化显示文摘要正确认识气候变化与大气CO2浓度变化的关系,首先需要了解二者在过去不同时期的变化规律.本文分别从显生宙、中生代、新生代、中更新世、末次冰消期、全新世、过去千年以及近几十年的仪器观测记录共8个时间段,对过去约500Ma以来的大气CO2浓度与温度指标进行了整理分析,根据记录载体和时间跨越尺度,将这些不同时间段上的古气候记录归纳为3个类型:1)以模型计算和古土壤、古生物等为记录载体的百万年及更长时间尺度的记录,CO2和温度的变化总体趋势一致,但是由于数据误差较大,分辨率低,所以很难进行明确的因果关系研究;2)以极地冰芯为记录载体的米兰科维奇轨道时间尺度的记录,数据精度较高,为探索大气CO2在气候变化过程中所扮演的具体角色提供了可能;3)以冰核和积雪为主要载体,包括仪器记录在内的百年及更短时间尺度的记录,虽然这个时期资料最为丰富,数据精度更高,但是气候变化的影响因素很多,很难识别大气CO2温室效应的份量,在进行数据分析时出现了众多的解释和不确定性.对本文搜集到的数据进行综合对比,得到以下认识:1)从长趋势来看,全球温度和大气CO2浓度均表现出降低的趋势,但两者的起伏变化并无固定的先后次序,因而对于其因果关系的解释存在很大的不确定性;2)地质时期的大气CO2浓度有过很大的波动,存在多次高大气CO2浓度时期,最高时可达5000ppmv以上,也存在一些低大气CO2浓度时期,最低时可达200ppmv以下;3)依据目前的全球观测数据,大气CO2浓度已经突破400ppmv,虽然没有确切的证据表明这一数值具有特殊的含义,但这一浓度是过去800ka(冰芯记录)以来的最高值,甚至在整个第四纪(2.58Ma)都是罕见的. | 刘植 黄少鹏 | 2015 | 第四纪研究2015，35，6： | 15 |
| 4 | Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960-2009显示文摘The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index (CDI) to 722 stations in China's Mainland. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies (0.9–1.3 times per year) in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies (0.6–0.9 times per year) in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over China's Mainland except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought (RD) event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for <100 days and covered <100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China. | 钱维宏 单晓龙 朱亚芬 | 2011 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2011，28，2： | 13 |
| 5 | Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes显示文摘Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series.The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),Little Ice Age(LIA) and recent Global Warming Period(GWP) were distinct in the temperature series.21-year,65-year,115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures.The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability.The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation.At this century-cross period,the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously,which did not occur during the last millennium.Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations,global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s. | QIAN WeiHong LU Bo | 2010 | Chinese Science Bulletin2010，55，35： | 12 |
| 6 | Projection of global mean surface air temperature changes in next 40 years: Uncertainties of climate models and an alternative approach显示文摘The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future cli mate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean tempera ture. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an al ternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011–2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection. | FU CongBin QIAN Cheng WU ZhaoHua | 2011 | Science China Earth Sciences2011，54，9： | 10 |
| 7 | An Observational Analysis of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Structure of Global-Scale Multi-decadal Variability显示文摘The aim of the present study was to identify multi-decadal variability(MDV) relative to the current centennial global warming trend in available observation data. The centennial global warming trend was first identified in the global mean surface temperature(STgm) data. The MDV was identified based on three sets of climate variables, including sea surface temperature(SST), ocean temperature from the surface to 700 m, and the NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis datasets, respectively.All variables were detrended and low-pass filtered. Through three independent EOF analyses of the filtered variables, all results consistently showed two dominant modes, with their respective temporal variability resembling the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation(PDO/IPO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO). The spatial structure of the PDO-like oscillation is characterized by an ENSO-like structure and hemispheric symmetric features. The structure associated with the AMO-like oscillation exhibits hemispheric asymmetric features with anomalous warm air over Eurasia and warm SST in the Atlantic and Pacific basin north of 10°S, and cold SST over the southern oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic MDV in upper-ocean temperature suggest that they are mutually linked.We also found that the PDO-like and AMO-like oscillations are almost equally important in global-scale MDV by EOF analyses. In the period 1975–2005, the evolution of the two oscillations has given rise to strong temperature trends and has contributed almost half of the STgm warming. Hereon, in the next decade, the two oscillations are expected to slow down the global warming trends. | Peng LIU Chung-Hsiung SUI | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，2： | 9 |
| 8 | Model study of relationship between local temperature and artificial heat release显示文摘In recent decades,it presents a more obvious temperature rise in urban area along with the global warming.City is generally the center of human society,so the study on urban temperature variation will be helpful to our city development planning that is to reduce urban warming.The study is also helpful to a more comprehensive understanding of the causes of climate warming,which could provide a theoretical support to the government to make more reasonable international energy policies.Local temperature rise has different mechanisms with the global warming:large quantities of artificial heat release from the energy consumption will stay in urban areas for a period of time,which will inevitably influence the short-term trend of the local temperature change.Based on that view,a structural thermodynamic model was established in this paper to investigate the effect of the artificial heat release on the urban local temperatures.In the model,the city environment was divided into Human,Local,Outer three blocks,and then the heat and temperatures of the blocks were analyzed based on the laws of thermodynamics.After that,the effect of artificial heat release in Human block on the local temperatures was clarified.The model shows that the artificial heat release has an approximately linearly promoting effect on the local temperature rise,and the more the heat release is,the stronger the effect is.In addition,a validation of that model was carried out based on some national statistical data.The data of temperatures and artificial heat release of some provincial capitals of China were analyzed with linear regression extrapolation method and Pearson correlation statistical method.The results show that in most capital cities,the temperature variations basically depend on the artificial heat release in a linear relationship,which usually becomes more apparent with the increase of the artificial heat release in both spatial and temporal dimensions.The conclusions of the statistics have good conformity with the model and the rationality of the model is verified. | NIU Qiang NIE ChaoQun LIN Feng LI Ling JI LuCheng | 2012 | Science China(Technological Sciences)2012，55，3： | 5 |
| 9 | Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature显示文摘A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999.Based on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors.The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int.Therefore,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes.External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming.Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order fit.EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter.Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational. | LUO FeiFei LI ShuangLin | 2014 | Science China Earth Sciences2014，57，12： | 5 |
| 10 | 中国南亚热带1901—2011年气温变化的阶段性和周期性及趋势显示文摘全球变暖及其归因问题一直处于争议中,而区域气候更因融入本地因子使得气候变化问题更为复杂。因此,了解区域气候变化过程对区域气候预测以及认识全球气候变化过程具有重要意义。我国南亚热带8个气象站资料分析显示:(1)1901—2011年的气温呈增加趋势,平均气温的线性增温率为1.26℃/100a,与全球变化趋势总体相似;其中,受热岛效应影响的气象站,其气温升高趋势明显高于全球及全国平均水平;而热岛效应影响小的恒春、澎湖和澳门气象站的平均线性增温率则为0.97℃/100a。(2)近110年中存在两个明显的增温阶段,即20世纪10年代中期到50年代中期和20世纪80年代中期至今,具有几十年的年代际变化周期;同时小波分析也显示这种年代际震荡信号上还叠加有3~6年的ENSO年际变化周期。(3)趋势分析显示1998年以来的暖期将持续至21世纪20年代中期,而21世纪我国南亚热带最大增温幅度将出现于60年代中期,2100年我国南亚热带气温较1961—1990年平均值将高约(1.2±0.5)℃。 | 田翠翠 陈特固 余克服 | 2013 | 海洋地质与第四纪地质2013，33，6： | 3 |
| 11 | A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale显示文摘Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis(MSSA) we decomposed climatic time series into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic oscillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly(Had CRUT4) and global mean sea level(GMSL). Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation.Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth's rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth's rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes. | Leonid Zotov C.Bizouard C.K.Shum | 2016 | Geodesy and Geodynamics2016，7，3： | 2 |
| 12 | 利用珊瑚生长率重建西沙海域工业革命以来的海温变化显示文摘以南海北部西沙群岛永兴岛发育的澄黄滨珊瑚(Porites lutea)为材料,构建了珊瑚骨骼生长率温度计,并以此为基础重建了工业革命以来(1880―2007年)西沙海域SST变化序列。结果发现:1880―2007年,西沙海域SST的波动范围26.1~28.5℃,平均值为27.27℃。1880―1892年为降温期,西沙海域SST波动下降,在1892年达到近百年来的最低值(26.1℃)。1893―1935年为西沙海域SST低温平台期,SST以波动为主;1936―1957年西沙海域SST先升后降,变化呈单峰模式。1957―2003年,SST呈现快速增温趋势。2003―2007年,西沙海域SST出现'增温停滞'现象。在年代际尺度上,西沙海域SST的整体变化模式可能受气候系统准60 a周期调控。在年际尺度上,冬季风强度、火山活动以及ENSO等共同对西沙海域SST产生影响。人类活动导致的全球增暖可能在1957年之后才成为西沙海域SST增温的主要驱动因素。2003―2007年西沙海域出现的降温趋势是对全球'增温停滞'的响应,是自然强迫和人为强迫相互作用的结果,西沙海域SST这种短暂的降温趋势很可能随着自然强迫作用的减弱而重新被增温模式所代替。 | 张会领 余克服 施祺 陶士臣 严宏强 刘国辉 | 2017 | 热带地理2017，37，5： | 2 |
| 13 | Changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions in response to interannual and interdecadal temperature variability显示文摘Relationships on interannual and interdecadal timescales among global mean air temperature,CO2 concentrations and fossil-fuel carbon emissions in four major developed countries (the United States,the United Kingdom,France,and Germany) were analyzed.On an interannual timescale,the United States fossil-fuel carbon emissions tend to increase during cold winters and decrease during warm winters,which is opposite to the situation in summer.On an interdecadal timescale,cold (warm) periods both in the United States and globally agree with high (low) periods of fossil-fuel carbon emissions,with the temperature variability leading by 5–7 years.The leading correlation on the interdecadal timescale and the asymmetry in seasonal correlation on the interannual timescale indicate that temperature variability is a possible cause of changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions. | QIAN WeiHong LU Bo LIANG HaoYuan | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，3： | 2 |
| 14 | 显生宙一级层序的银河年旋回响应:重要的进展与争论显示文摘与一级海平面旋回相对应的层序被称为一级层序,一级层序与银河年旋回很可能存在内在联系,即银河年旋回在宏观上控制着一级层序。而显生宙期间所发生的诸如大气圈二氧化碳(CO2)浓度变化、相应的温室-冰室气候更替、全球海平面升降、水圈中'方解石海'与'文石海'交替出现、古地磁磁极倒转等超事件都具有良好的旋回性,且在成因上具有较为明显的相关性,很可能受控于银河年旋回与各个超事件之间复杂的成因联系。多年来的研究表明太阳系在绕银心运动时,重力加速度(G值)随之改变,太阳系因此发生膨胀(或收缩),太阳系的成员--地球,形成位能的变化,并吸收(或释放)热量;同时由于G值的改变,重力分异作用也因此改变,导致地幔的膨胀与地核的收缩,当能量积攒到一定程度时就会启动超级地幔柱,进而影响地球上的板块格局。显生宙发生的这些超事件所展示出的周期性变化在近年来引起了广泛的关注与探讨,关注这些富有智慧的认识和存在的问题,将为今后的深入研究提供重要的思考过程与研究线索。 | 张英杰 王龙 | 2020 | 地球科学进展2020，35，3： | 1 |
| 15 | 利用周期性预测未来百年中国气温变化显示文摘全球变暖是目前最为重大全球变化事件,全球变暖的未来趋势是关注的焦点之一,过去全球变化的研究,为预测未来气候变化提供了背景资料.采用中国全新世百年分辨率气温集成序列,利用傅立叶分析技术进行周期分析,并结合全新世环境记录的研究结果,以6000a、4000a、3000a、2400a、1200a、1091a、1000a、923a和706a做为自然变率的谐波准周期,对集成序列进行拟合,结果表明:拟合序列与集成气温变化趋势基本一致,能较好的拟合全新世百年尺度冷暖变率,对集成序列的方差解释量达到81%.并利用周期外延的方法预测了未来百年尺度的气温自然变率,未来500年气温将呈现下降趋势,在2300~2400AD气温较现代低1℃左右.太阳因素与全新世气候的周期性变化关系显著,但太阳驱动气候变化的模式复杂,在千-百年尺度利用太阳活动来预测未来气温具有不确定性. | 侯光良 肖景义 鄂崇毅 | 2012 | 青海师范大学学报(自然科学版)2012，28，2： | 1 |
| 16 | Mid-summer surface air temperature and its internal variability over China at 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming显示文摘Recently,extremely hot summers occurred frequently across China,and the mean mid-summer surface air temperature(SAT)continuously broke the records of the past decades,causing huge social and economic losses.As global warming accelerates,these extremely hot summers will undoubtedly occur more frequently.However,the issue of what will happen to the mid-summer SAT over China in the near future remains unclear.Therefore,we investigate the changes of mid-summer SAT and related internal variabilities over China at 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming above preindustrial level by using the MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble simulations.The results indicate that compared to the present-day(1986–2005),national averaged mid-summer SAT will increase by 1.1℃ and 2.0℃,in 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios respectively.This means that the mid-summer SAT is projected to increase by 0.9℃ due to an additional 0.5℃ global warming,which is higher than the annual value(0.8℃)and almost two times the global warming rate.Regionally,in the two warming targets,the increase in mid-summer SAT will be more enhanced over the northwestern part of China.In addition,the extremely high monthly SAT would increase nationwide due to an additional 0.5℃ in global warming.Among all areas,the Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces would experience the strongest increase in extremely high monthly SAT.It is important to find that,from 1.5℃ to 2℃ global warming,changes of the internal variability of the mid-summer SAT differs across China.It would decrease over some parts of western Northwest China,North China,Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau.However,it would significantly increase over Qinghai,Sichuan,and northern parts of Inner Mongolia.As a result,at 2℃ global warming,the increase of extreme SAT in Qinghai is caused by the synergistic effect of stronger warming rate and larger internal variability.Differently,the increase in Xinjiang province is mainly caused by the stronger local warming.Further analysis suggests that we can effectively reduce the intensity of extremely hot months over most regions of Northwest China by limiting global warming to 1.5℃,rather than to 2℃. | YIN Shu-Yue WANG Tao HUA Wei MIAO Jia-Peng GAO Yong-Qi FU Yuan-Hai Daniela MATEI Evangelos TYRLIS CHEN Dong | 2020 | Advances in Climate Change Research2020，11，3： | 1 |
| 17 | 大气CO_2变化与气候显示文摘在地质历史时期,地球的气候不断在变化,全球大气CO2浓度也在变化,二者之间是否存在一种响应—反馈作用,目前存在争议较大.本研究从地质时间尺度、千年以来和现代气候变化3个角度进行介绍,认为全球气候变化是多重时间尺度变化规律的叠加,从长时间尺度来看,全球平均温度和大气CO2水平均表现出整体降低的趋势.地质历史时期存在多次大气CO2浓度升高的时期,有时甚至可达现在大气CO2水平的十几倍.气候变化与大气CO2的关系非常复杂,高CO2时期并不全部对应于高温时期.千年以来的气候变化在全球各大洲均有温暖时期的出现,并且很多地方的重建结果表明中世纪暖期的全球平均温度要比现代的全球平均温度还高.但这一区间的温度变化和大气CO2水平在1850年之前没有明显的相关性.近百年的气候观测资料表明全球平均温度上升了0.74℃,但对于这种上升的理解目前还存在较大争议.是否确实是由于人类活动(主要是工业革命以来)导致了全球CO2水平增高,进而导致全球变暖,需要更多的证据来验证. | 刘植 刘秀铭 李平原 吕镔 陈家胜 陈渠 郭雪莲 | 2012 | 亚热带资源与环境学报2012，7，1： | 1 |
| 18 | 河南省沁阳市气候变化特征及其对怀药的影响研究显示文摘根据河南省沁阳市1971-2013年日照时数、气温和降水资料,采用滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变分析和多元回归分析,探讨沁阳市气候变化特征及其与怀药生长和产量的关系。结果表明:沁阳市冬季和春季平均气温升温率分别为0.4℃/10a和0.5℃/10a,怀药生长期平均气温变化趋势为0.3℃/10a;≥10℃活动积温呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05)且持续时间延长;年降水量呈现不明显的下降趋势,降水季节分布与怀药不同生长期'少-多-少'的需水过程一致;强降水事件的减少有利于降低蓄根类怀药根(茎)腐烂的风险;气候变暖有利于怀药品质和产量的提高;在怀药全生长期间,气温和降水的同期协调作用显著影响怀药的产量(P<0.05)。研究结果可为气候变化背景下怀药生产区采取科学的生产管理措施提供依据。 | 任爱华 李亚飞 陶贞 张乾柱 徐鹏 杨冰 | 2016 | 中山大学学报(自然科学版)2016，55，5： | 1 |
| 19 | 井工矿井煤炭开发中CH_4排放影响因素分析显示文摘为了客观的分析井工矿井煤炭开发中CH4(瓦斯的主要成分)排放的影响因素,在分析瓦斯形成过程及赋存条件的基础上,结合我国井工开采矿井生产工艺、抽采现状,构建了由煤层瓦斯含量因素、开采技术因素、瓦斯抽采状况及瓦斯残留状况四个子系统构成的井工矿井煤炭开发中CH4排放影响因素综合评价指标体系。该指标体系由16个二级指标构成,具有科学、全面、指标较易获取的特点,有助于分析我国井工矿井煤炭开发中的减排潜力,为制定相应的CH4减排措施提供依据。 | 张磊 撒占友 綦鲁杰 刘岩 | 2013 | 中国人口·资源与环境2013，23，S2： | 0 |
| 20 | Climatic Change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Surrounding Areas in 130 Years显示文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study climatic change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the surrounding areas from 1880 to 2011. [Method] Based on GISS temperature grid data, by using change rules of the annual and monthly anomaly temperatures, sliding t-test and wavelet analysis, periodicity and tendency of the atmospheric temperature change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the surrounding areas were analyzed. [Result] Both annual and monthly anomaly temperatures in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 130 years presented rise tendency. Since the 1990s, temperature rose evidently, and it presented temperature-rise tendency of winter >autumn >spring >summer. Rise velocity of the temperature had spatial difference. Rise velocity of the temperature in west Inner Mongolia was the highest, followed by west Sichuan and east Tibet. Rise velocity of the temperature in some areas of Xinjiang was the slowest. Abrupt change of the temperature happened in the 1930s, and main period of the wavelet analysis was 10 years. [Conclusion] The research could lay foundation for discussing global climate change. | Haiyan Wang Liangcai Guo | 2013 | Meteorological and Environmental Research2013，4，4： | 0 |
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