|
|
|
题名
|
作者
|
年代
|
出处
|
被引量
|
| 1 | 中国冰冻圈水文过程变化研究新进展显示文摘冰冻圈显著的变化已经对冰冻圈水文过程产生了一系列影响。本文重点梳理和分析了近20年,尤其是近10年以冰川融水、融雪径流、冻土水文等为主体的中国冰冻圈水文过程变化研究方面取得的新进展:①在冰川融水变化研究方面,对不同尺度的冰川融水开展了全面研究,发现冰川融水呈现全面增加之势;对冰川融水“拐点”是否出现进行了科学辨识,有了基本认识;对冰川融水过程进行了模型模拟,取得显著进展。②在融雪径流变化研究方面,通过对不同流域融雪径流估算,可基本掌握各河流的融雪贡献率;中国融雪径流变化差异较大,增减不一;融雪期变化具有普遍性,突出特点是峰值提前。③在冻土水文研究方面,通过对地表水-活动层壤中流-多年冻土层上水之间关系的研究,揭示了冻土区径流形成的重力和热力耦合机制;多年冻土变化对地表径流的影响已经显现,主要表现在冬季(枯水季)径流增加;已经发现多年冻土退化对径流有直接补给作用,在一些流域补给量可能达到一定量级。 | 丁永建 张世强 吴锦奎 赵求东 李向应 秦甲 | 2020 | 水科学进展2020，31，5： | 31 |
| 2 | 黄河源区气候变化的环境效应研究显示文摘以黄河源区气象台站的降水和气温资料以及玛多、达日、玛曲、唐乃亥和兰州水文站的径流资料为基础,分析研究了该区降水、气温、水文变化趋势,并对研究区的土地利用现状变化及原因进行了探讨.结果表明:在年代际变化趋势上,黄河源区气温总体上呈升温态势,降水呈减少趋势,径流量也表现为减少趋势.土地利用现状的变化表明人类活动对研究区生态湿地的干预增强.自然因素和人类活动的综合作用,使得黄河源区生态环境进一步恶化,亟需进行人工干预,保护和改善黄河源区生态湿地环境. | 李开明 李绚 王翠云 乔艳君 | 2013 | 冰川冻土2013，35，5： | 30 |
| 3 | 1959年来中国天山冰川资源时空变化显示文摘基于两期冰川编目数据与气象数据,对天山1959年来冰川资源的时空变化特征进行研究。研究发现:(1)天山地区现有冰川7934条,面积7179.77 km^2,冰储量756.48 km^3。冰川数量以面积<1 km^2的冰川居多,面积以1~10 km^2和≥20 km^2的冰川为主,冰川集中分布在海拔3800~4800 m之间。(2)在四级流域中,阿克苏河流域冰川面积最大为1721.75 km^2,面积最小的是伊吾河流域,为56.03 km^2。在各市(州)中,阿克苏地区冰川资源量最多,其面积和储量分别占天山总量的43.28%和68.85%;冰川资源量最少的市(州)是吐鲁番地区,面积和储量仅占天山总量的0.23%和0.07%。(3)1959年来,天山地区冰川面积减少了1619.82 km^2(-18.41%),储量亏损了104.78 km^3(-12.16%),其中数量以<1 km^2的冰川减少最多,面积减少以<5 km^2的冰川最为严重。(4)冰川变化呈现明显的区域差异,变化速度最快的是天山东段博格达北坡流域,变化最慢的是中部的渭干河流域。初步分析认为夏季气温显著上升带来的消融大于年内降水带来的积累是天山冰川退缩的主要原因。 | 邢武成 李忠勤 张慧 张明军 梁鹏斌 牟建新 | 2017 | 地理学报2017，72，9： | 26 |
| 4 | 近50年来天山地区典型冰川厚度及储量变化显示文摘冰川储量变化与冰川水资源量变化以及冰川对河川径流的贡献量密切相关。在GPR-3S技术支持下,本研究基于雷达测厚数据、不同时期的高分辨率遥感影像、地形图及实测资料,分析了天山三个典型地区四条代表性冰川近期厚度及储量变化特征,并通过对比探讨了造成变化差异的可能原因。结果表明,1962-2006年乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川厚度平均减薄0.15ma-1,冰储量亏损26.2×106m3,冰川末端平均退缩3.8ma-1;博格达峰南坡的黑沟8号冰川在1986-2009年间,冰舌平均减薄0.57ma-1,冰储量损失了25.5×106m3,末端平均退缩11.0ma-1;位于博格达峰北坡的四工河4号冰川在1962-2009年间冰舌平均减薄0.32ma-1,冰储量亏损14.0×106m3,末端平均后退8.0ma-1;1964-2008年间,托木尔峰青冰滩72号冰川冰舌平均减薄0.22ma-1,由此至少造成冰储量亏损14.1×106m3,末端退缩达40.0ma-1。对比分析显示,青冰滩72号冰川消融退缩最为强烈,黑沟8号冰川次之,与乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川、科其喀尔冰川相差不大,稍大于四工河4号冰川和哈密庙尔沟冰川。这种差异可能与区域气候变化和冰川物理特征有直接关系。 | 王璞玉 李忠勤 李慧林 吴利华 金爽 周平 | 2012 | 地理学报2012，67，7： | 18 |
| 5 | 中国冰冻圈水文未来变化及其对干旱区水安全的影响显示文摘受气候变暖持续影响,中国冰冻圈水文过程正在发生着显著变化。在梳理已有过去冰冻圈融水变化基础上,重点分析了冰冻圈融水径流未来变化特点,尤其是对冰川融水拐点及温升2℃阈值情况下,到2050年和21世纪末,冰川融水的可能变化进行了辨析,进而研判了冰冻圈水文变化对流域、重点是干旱区内陆河流域水安全的影响。研究表明,中国未来大部分流域冰川融水径流总体呈现减少趋势,并呈现冰川径流持续减少、在不久的将来出现峰值和持续增加三种情况;单条冰川融水可能会出现拐点,而且拐点是否出现和出现的时间与升温速率和冰川面积大小有关;在流域尺度上,冰川覆盖率较大、大型冰川面积占比较高的流域,到2050年融水径流持续稳定增加;冰川规模较小的流域,冰川径流峰值早已出现;介于上述两种情况之间的大多数流域,冰川融水峰值在2020-2030年相继出现或变化呈现不显著增加或减少,相对稳定;RCP情景温升2℃阈值下,到21世纪末,西北干旱区冰川融水量减少34%~74%。冰冻圈水文变化导致水源涵养能力下降、径流补给量减少、对水资源的调节作用减弱、流域径流变化幅度增加、发生旱涝的风险增加、春汛提前进而影响用水制度。 | 丁永建 赵求东 吴锦奎 张世强 王生霞 苌亚平 李向应 上官冬辉 韩海东 秦甲 韩添丁 | 2020 | 冰川冻土2020，42，1： | 18 |
| 6 | 基于系统动力学的咸阳市水资源承载力显示文摘基于系统动力学的原理和方法,将水资源承载力系统划分为工业、农业、生活、生态、水资源和污水处理回用子系统,以缺水程度为主要反馈因子,考虑缺水时人们用水决策偏好,通过各子系统之间的反馈关系,建立了咸阳市水资源承载力系统动力学模型.模拟结果表明:按趋势发展型方案,咸阳市工业发展迅速,农业和生态用水被挤占,发展缓慢,规划年内缺水程度为9%~35%,为严重缺水;按资源环境保护型方案,生态环境得到良好保护,但工农业发展受到严重制约;按经济发展型方案,工业发展十分迅速,但农业灌溉面积减少,生态环境恶化,地下水超采严重,缺水情况仍存在,为3%~5%,发展可持续性差;按协调发展型方案,工农业保持13.8%发展速度,污水处理回用量增加,农业灌溉稳步发展,生态环境情况得到改善,缺水程度严重时约为0.4%,表明该方案是咸阳市水资源承载力可持续发展的最优方案. | 黄蕊 刘俊民 李燐楷 | 2012 | 排灌机械工程学报2012，30，1： | 12 |
| 7 | Hydrochemical Characteristics and Solute Dynamics of Meltwater Runoff of Urumqi Glacier No.1,Eastern Tianshan,Northwest China显示文摘Hydrochemical characteristics and solute dynamics of bulk meltwater draining from Urumqi Glacier No.1 were investigated in years 2006 and 2007.The glacial meltwater was slightly alkaline with the mean pH of 7.64 and 7.61 in 2006 and 2007,respectively.In the meltwater,the dominant anions were the bicarbonate and sulphate,and the dominant cation was calcium.The concentration of major cations were varied as c(Ca2+) > c(Mg2+) > c(K+) > c(Na+),while the order for the cations was c(HCO3) > c(SO42) > c(NO3) > c(Cl).The total dissolved solids(TDS) in meltwater had inverse relationships with the diurnal discharge.The major ion composition of meltwater was mainly controlled by rock weathering as inferred from the Gibbs model.Furthermore,the ion ratios and Piper diagram indicated that the main processes controlling the meltwater chemistry were carbonate weathering,pyrite weathering and feldspar weathering in rocks,and Ca2+ and HCO3 were the dominant ions during the carbonate weathering process.Solute flux calculation at Glacier No.1 station suggested that chemical denudation rates were 11.46 and 13.90 ton.km 2.yr 1 in 2006 and 2007,respectively. | FENG Fang LI Zhongqin JIN Shuang DONG Zhiwen WANG Feiteng | 2012 | Journal of Mountain Science2012，9，4： | 10 |
| 8 | 中国大陆型冰川和海洋型冰川变化比较分析——以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和玉龙雪山白水河1号冰川为例显示文摘以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和玉龙雪山白水河1号冰川为例,比较分析了全球变暖背景下中国大陆型冰川和海洋型冰川自20世纪中期以来的变化。结果表明:物质平衡亏损、平衡线高度上升、活动层温度升高、厚度减薄、运动速度降低、末端退缩、面积和冰储量减少是两类冰川的主要变化趋势;大陆型冰川变率有加大或者大于海洋型冰川的表现,并且两类冰川的变化幅度差距有逐渐缩小或趋稳的迹象。进一步分析认为:两类冰川消融退缩的主要原因是气温上升,重要因素是冰面反照率降低,而气候环境、响应气候变化的敏感性、加速消融机理等差异,是造成两者变化差异性的主要原因。 | 李开明 陈世峰 康玲芬 李忠勤 李生德 文强 | 2018 | 干旱区研究2018，35，1： | 9 |
| 9 | 近25年唐古拉山西段冰川变化遥感监测显示文摘基于1990—2015年Landsat影像数据,利用比值阈值和NIR水体识别相结合的新方法提取并研究了近25年来唐古拉山西段冰川变化情况和规律,并采用克里金插值构建研究区气候分布及变化特征,揭示冰川变化与气候变化的关系。研究得出:唐古拉山西段冰川总体退缩比较严重,近25年来冰川面积退缩约202.84 km^2,占1990年面积的11.98%;冰川退缩主要集中在海拔5 800 m以下;研究区东南部冰川退缩最严重,中部格拉丹冬地区冰川退缩较少;空间插值表明研究区东南部相对较湿热而西北部干冷,西北—东南方向温度分布呈现由低到高的变化趋势,降水量先减少后增加总体变化幅度不大,但研究区气温普遍上升,插值变化显示增温区从研究区中心向周围辐射,最大增温区几乎已经覆盖整个冰川区域;唐古拉山西段冰川的加速退缩主要是由升温造成的。 | 王聪强 杨太保 许艾文 冀琴 Mihretab G.Ghebrezgabher | 2017 | 地球科学进展2017，32，1： | 8 |
| 10 | 1972—2013年新疆玛纳斯河流域冰川变化显示文摘利用多期遥感资料,分析了新疆玛纳斯河流域1972—2013年的冰川变化,并对其原因进行了分析。结果表明:1972—2013年冰川共退缩了159.02 km2(变化率为-24.61%),海拔3 800~4 200 m之间退缩最为强烈,冰川末端海拔升高明显(41 a间海拔3 200~3 300 m之间的冰川消失)。冰川变化存在一定的区域差异性,玛纳斯河主源冰川退缩速度最快,左岸次之,右岸退缩速度最慢。从朝向上看,各个朝向的冰川均处于退缩状态,偏东向的冰川退缩面积明显大于其他方向。近40 a,流域冰川总储量减少了59.09~85.94 km^3。与中国天山其他地区冰川相比,该流域的冰川退速率较高,气温升高是该区域冰川退缩的主要原因。 | 徐春海 王飞腾 李忠勤 王林 王璞玉 | 2016 | 干旱区研究2016，33，3： | 8 |
| 11 | Numerical simulation of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan,central Asia from 2005 to 2070显示文摘Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming. | DUAN KeQin YAO TanDong WANG NingLian LIU HuanCai | 2012 | Chinese Science Bulletin2012，57，34： | 7 |
| 12 | 1972-2016年东天山哈尔里克山地区冰川物质平衡研究显示文摘新疆哈密地区是世界上极端干旱的地区之一,依托高峻的哈尔里克山发育的现代冰川成为维系本区绿洲生存与发展的固体水库。对哈尔里克山地区冰川的监测与研究可获得本区冰川对全球气候变化的响应,也为哈密地区的水资源评估、生态建设与绿洲经济的可持续发展提供基础数据与理论支持。基于地形图、 SRTM DEM和资源三号立体像对等数据,采用大地测量法对哈尔里克山地区自地形图成图以来44年间冰川物质平衡进行了研究。结果表明:1972-2016年间冰川平均表面高程下降了(9.15±0.98) m,冰川物质平衡为(-0.18±0.02) m·a^(-1) w.e.,冰量损失显著。其中, 1972-1999年间,冰川物质平衡为(-0.04±0.01) m·a^(-1) w.e.,冰量损失较缓慢; 1999-2016年间,冰川物质平衡增至(-0.36±0.05) m·a^(-1) w.e.,冰量损失加剧。此外,南北坡的冰川物质平衡空间差异性明显。1972-1999年间,北坡冰川物质平衡为(-0.05±0.01) m·a^(-1) w.e.,南坡冰川物质平衡为(-0.02±0.01) m·a^(-1) w.e.,北坡冰川物质损失略大于南坡; 1999-2016年间,北坡冰川物质平衡为(-0.27±0.04) m·a^(-1) w.e.,南坡冰川物质平衡为(-0.45±0.05) m·a^(-1) w.e.,南坡冰川损失量远大于北坡。结合哈密与伊吾气象观测资料分析可知:冰川的物质平衡与气温变化呈现出很强的相关性,研究区的降水量自20世纪50年代以来呈增加趋势,但温度变化对冰川物质平衡的影响大于略微增加的降水的影响。1999年后,南坡冬夏季气温的增长幅度均超过北坡,这是南坡冰量损失加剧的主因。 | 杨晓辉 赵井东 韩惠 | 2019 | 冰川冻土2019，41，1： | 6 |
| 13 | Mass change study on Arctic glacier Pedersenbreen, during 1936-1990-2009显示文摘Pedersenbreen is a small polythermal valley glacier, located in Svalbard, which has been one of the two glaciers monitored by Chinese Arctic expedition members since 2004. This study estimates its area and volume and analyzes its change during 1936-1990-2009, using field collected GPS/GPR data in 2009 and historical topographic maps published by the Norwegian Polar Institute. We have found that Pedersenbreen is just like many other valley glaciers in Svalbard, having experienced a significant recession since the end of Little Ice Age in the early 20th century. The glacier tongue has retreated more than 0.6 km, while ice volume has decreased by approximately 13%. The overall thinning rate of Pedersenbreen has shown acceleration during the recent decades. Further analysis shows that the ice tongue in the downstream area of Pedersenbreen is melting at the highest rate, while a simultaneous accumulation occurred in the upstream. However, as global temperatures increase, the accumulation area is reducing year by year. | AI SongTao WANG ZeMin TAN Zhi E DongChen YAN Ming | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，25： | 5 |
| 14 | Spatial variability of glacial changes and their effects on water resources in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains during the last five decades显示文摘Changes in glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains have been analyzed previously. However, most previous studies focused on individual glaciers and/or decentralized glacial basins. Moreover, a majority of these studies were published only in Chinese, which limited their usefulness at the international level. With this in mind, the authors reviewed the previous studies to create an overview of glacial changes in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains over the last five decades and discussed the effects of glacial changes on water resources. In response to climate change, glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains are shrinking rapidly and are ca. 20% smaller on average in the past five decades. Overall, the area reduction of glacial basins in the central part of the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is larger than that in the eastern and western parts. The spatial differentiation in glacial changes are caused by both differences in regional climate and in glacial factors. The effects of glacial changes on water resources vary in different river basins due to the differences in glacier distribution, characteristics of glacial change and proportion of the glacier meltwater in river runoff. | WANG Puyu LI Zhongqin HUAI Baojuan WANG Wenbin LI Huilin WANG Lin | 2015 | Journal of Arid Land2015，7，6： | 5 |
| 15 | 东天山黑沟流域冰川沉积序列及OSL测年研究显示文摘黑沟源于东天山最大现代冰川作用中心博格达峰的南坡.在第四纪冰期与间冰期旋回中,该流域的冰川均发生过多次规模较大的进退,在谷中留下了较为完整的冰川沉积序列.这些冰川地形包含有重要的古气候变化信息,对其研究可重建黑沟流域的冰川演化史.应用OSL对该流域的冰川沉积物进行定年,测定结果表明冰水沉积物(沙质透镜体)比冰碛物更适宜应用单片再生剂量(SAR)测年技术进行测定.基于测得的年龄并结合地貌地层学原理可初步得出:晚第四纪期间,黑沟流域共发生了5次规模较大的冰川作用,分别为全新世期间的小冰期(16世纪以来冷期的冰进)与新冰期(距今3~4ka的冰进),末次冰期晚冰阶(MIS2)与早冰阶(MIS4)以及倒数第二次冰期(MIS6). | 殷秀峰 赵井东 伍云飞 | 2014 | 冰川冻土2014，36，1： | 5 |
| 16 | 1991年和2015年唐古拉山冰川边界/范围矢量数据集显示文摘唐古拉山(31°15′–34°45′N,90°23′–95°52′E)位于青藏高原中部,西起祖尔肯乌拉山,东至布加岗日,全长约500 km。山脉总体呈西北–东南走向,是青海省与西藏自治区的界山及怒江河源水系和长江–澜沧江河源水系的分水岭。唐古拉山平均海拔5500 m左右,总地势西部高、东部低。唐古拉山脉东段冰川属于海洋型冰川,西段属于大陆型冰川,长江正源各拉丹东冰川区、怒江正源将美尔山冰川区及澜沧江正源皆位于唐古拉山地区,因此本区域冰川变化对以上河流水资源起着至关重要的作用。本数据集基于第一、二次冰川编目数据、1989–1995年Landsat TM遥感影像、2013–2017年Landsat OLI遥感影像以及SRTM DEM数据,提取1991年和2015年唐古拉山冰川矢量数据,并标明了冰川编码、名称和流域等相关信息。本数据集反映了1991年(两次冰川编目之间)和2015年唐古拉山冰川分布状况,可作为该区域冰川变化、气候变化等研究的基础数据。 | 段红玉 姚晓军 刘时银 张聪 | 2020 | 中国科学数据(中英文网络版)2020，5，2： | 4 |
| 17 | 近40年来托木尔峰南坡三条监测冰川对气候变暖的响应显示文摘托木尔峰地区是中国现代冰川最大的作用中心之一。近四十年来,冰川消融加剧,退缩趋势明显,冰川融水径流增加。对托木尔峰南坡三条不同规模冰川的研究表明,面积减小厚度减薄是该区域冰川变化的主要趋势。受表碛覆盖影响,厚度减薄趋势显著,但末端退缩幅度差异很大。基于遥感监测资料以及实地考察数据,三条冰川自1964年以来面积分别减小了21.4%,15.8%和0.3%,末端平均退缩速率分别为41m·a^(-1)、30m·a^(-1)、1.5m·a^(-1)。大冰川大幅退缩对该区域水资源的短期和长期影响作用不容忽视。地形及表碛是影响冰川差异化消融的重要因子,温度升高是造成冰川退缩的重要驱动因素。 | 李开明 李忠勤 李明涛 怀保娟 | 2017 | 干旱区资源与环境2017，31，12： | 4 |
| 18 | The hydrological linkage of mountains and plains in the arid region of northwest China显示文摘Mountain regions supply a large amount of fresh water for the people in arid and semiarid regions, however, there is great uncertainty of the water quantification from mountains to lower areas. In order to assess the hydrological significance of mountains and the hydrological linkage of mountains and plains, the measured and simulated hydrological data of the arid region in northwest China were used in the present research which followed a catchment-based approach. Firstly, the Heihe River Basin, a well-documented area, was selected as a specific watershed to reveal the hydrological relationship between highlands (mountains) and lowlands (plains); and then, the significance and disproportion of mountain runoff of 8 river basins as cases in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed and compared following the above analysis. The results of the study showed that the proportion of mountain runoff in total basinal runoff (PMR) of most rivers is above 50%. The PMR are between 50%-95% in the rivers originated in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains where the aqueous vapor is relatively sufficient. And that, almost all the flow of the rivers originating from the Qilian Mountains, the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains come from mountain regions. Also the PMR gradually increases from west to east in northwest China. The hydrological significance and disproportion of mountains water in the arid region of northwest China were given a systematic and thorough assessment, and the results could give potential guides for the scientific utilization of water resources in these regional areas for relieving the more and more serious shortage of water resources due to climate warming and population expansion. | QIN Jia DING YongJian YANG GuoJing | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，25： | 3 |
| 19 | Shrinkage of Mt. Bogda Glaciers of Eastern Tian Shan in Central Asia during 1962–2006显示文摘Many small mountain glaciers have been reported undergoing strong shrinkage, and it is therefore important to understand how they respond to climate change. The availability of topographic maps from 1962, Landsat TM imagery from 1990 and ASTER(Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Radiometer) imagery from 2006 and field investigation of some glaciers allow a comprehensive analysis of glacier change based on glacier size and topography on Mt. Bogda. Results include:(1) an overall loss of a glacierized area by 31.18±0.31 km^2 or 21.6% from 1962 to 2006,(2) a marked dependence of glacier area shrinkage on initial size, with smaller glaciers experiencing higher shrinkage levels,(3) the disappearance of 12 small glaciers,(4) a striking difference in area loss between the southern and northern slopes of 25% and 17%, respectively. A subset of the investigated glaciers shows that the area 57.45±0.73 km2 in 1962 reduced to 54.79±0.561 km^2 in 1990 and 48.88±0.49 km^2 in 2006, with a relative area reduction of 4.6% during 1962–1990, and 10.8% during 1990–2006. The corresponding volume waste increased from 6.9% to 10.2%. Three reference glaciers were investigated in 1981 and revisited in 2009. Their terminus experienced a marked recession. Meteorological data from stations around Mt. Bogda reveals that glacier shrinkage is correlated with winter warming and an extension of the ablation period. Precipitation on the northwest side of the range shows a marked increase, with a slight increase on the southeast side. | Kaiming Li Zhongqin Li Cuiyun Wang Baojuan Huai | 2016 | Journal of Earth Science2016，27，1： | 3 |
| 20 | Response of Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to the current climate change and future scenarios by 2050显示文摘The Tibetan Plateau(TP) holds ten thousands of alpine glaciers in mid-latitude.They have shrunk with an accelerating retreat rate recently.We applied a distributed temperature-index massbalance model developed by Regine Hock,and coupled with a volume-area scaling method to Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier(XDG) in the central TP,to assess its response to climate change.The result shows the simulated mass balance is in a good agreement with observations(R^2=0.75,p<0.001) during the period of 1989-2012.The simulated mean annual mass balance(-213 mm w.e.) is close to the observation(-233 mm w.e.),indicating the model can be used to estimate the glacier variation in the future.Then the model was forced by the output of Reg CM4 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2013 to 2050.The simulated terminus elevation of the glacier will rise from 5454 m a.s.l.in 2013 to 5533 m a.s.l.(RCP4.5) and 5543 m a.s.l.(RCP8.5) in 2050.XDG will lose its volume with an increasing rate of 600-700 m3 a-1 during the period of 1989-2050,indicating the melting water will enhance the riverrunoff.But for the long term,the contribution to the river runoff will decrease for the shrinkage of glacier scale. | SHI Pei-hong DUAN Ke-qin LIU Huan-cai YANG Jun-hua ZHANG Xiao SUN Jian-yong | 2016 | Journal of Mountain Science2016，13，1： | 2 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员