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| 1 | A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia显示文摘The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario).The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010-2099,the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s,with a small increase (~1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (~9%) afterward.This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China,and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley.In 2010-2099,the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of 'wet East China' that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance.The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s,indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China.Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance,with no prominent liner trend in the future.By the late 21st century,the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia.At low level,this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS,and at high level,it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia.The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010-2099,with a prominent increase (by ~0.6 m s-1) after the 2040s.The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by ~9%) at the end of 21st century.The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables.These indicate that the enhanced precipitation over East Asia is caused by the increases in both monsoon circulation and water vapor,which is greatly different from South Asia.Both the dynamical and thermal dynamic variables will evolve consistently in response to the global warming in East Asia,i.e.,the intensified southwesterly monsoon airflow corresponding to the increased water vapor and southwesterly moisture transport. | Ying Sun YiHui Ding | 2010 | Science China Earth Sciences2010，53，2： | 23 |
| 2 | El Nio–Southern Oscillation and its impact in the changing climate显示文摘Extensive research has improved our understanding and forecast of the occurrence, evolution and global impacts of the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). However, ENSO changes as the global climate warms up and it exhibits different characteristics and climate impacts in the twenty-first century from the twentieth century. Climate models project that ENSO will also change in the warming future and have not reached an agreement about the flavor, as to the intensity and the frequency, of future ENSO conditions.This article presents the conventional view of ENSO properties, dynamics and teleconnections, and reviews the emerging understanding of the diversity and associated climate impacts of ENSO. It also reviews the results from investigations into the possible changes in ENSO under the future global-warming scenarios. | Song Yang Zhenning Li Jin-Yi Yu Xiaoming Hu Wenjie Dong Shan He | 2018 | National Science Review2018，5，6： | 8 |
| 3 | Projected changes in mean and extreme climates over Hindu Kush Himalayan region by 21 CMIP5 models显示文摘Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions. | WU Jie XU Ying GAO Xue-Jie | 2017 | Advances in Climate Change Research2017，8，3： | 4 |
| 4 | Projection of Landslides in China during the 21st Century under the RCP8.5 Scenario显示文摘More and more rainstorms and other extreme weather events occur in the context of global warming, which may increase the risks of landslides. In this paper, changes of landslides in the 21 st century of China under the high emission scenario RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway) are projected by using a statistical landslide forecasting model and the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical landslide model is based on an improved landslide susceptibility map of China and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold. First, it is driven by observed rainfall and RegCM4.0 rainfall in 1980–99, and it can reproduce the spatial distribution of landslides in China pretty well.Then, it is used to forecast the landslide changes over China in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results consistently reveal that landslides will increase significantly in most areas of China, especially in the southeastern, northeastern, and western parts of Northwest China. The change pattern at the end of the 21 st century is generally consistent with that in the middle of the 21 st century, but with larger increment and magnitude. In terms of the probability,the proportion of grid points that are very likely and extremely likely to experience landslides will also increase. | Shuangshuang HE Jun WANG Huijun WANG | 2019 | Journal of Meteorological Research2019，33，1： | 2 |
| 5 | Dynamical downscaling of regional climate: A review of methods and limitations显示文摘The traditional dynamical downscaling (TDD) method employs continuous integration of regional climate models (RCM) with the general circulation model (GCM) providing the initial and lateral boundary conditions. Dynamical downscaling simulations are constrained by physical principles and can generate a full set of climate information, providing one of the important approaches to projecting fine spatial-scale future climate information. However, the systematic biases of climate models often degrade the TDD simulations and hinder the application of dynamical downscaling in the climate-change related studies. New methods developed over past decades improve the performance of dynamical downscaling simulations. These methods can be divided into four groups: the TDD method, the pseudo global warming method, dynamical downscaling with GCM bias corrections, and dynamical downscaling with both GCM and RCM bias corrections. These dynamical downscaling methods are reviewed and compared in this paper. The merits and limitations of each dynamical downscaling method are also discussed. In addition, the challenges and potential directions in progressing dynamical downscaling methods are stated. | Zhongfeng XU Ying HAN Zongliang YANG | 2019 | Science China Earth Sciences2019，62，2： | 1 |
| 6 | Extreme climate projections over the transboundary Koshi River Basin using a high resolution regional climate model显示文摘The high-resolution climate model Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) was used to project the changes in futureextreme precipitation and temperature over the Koshi River Basin for use in impact assessments. Three outputs of the Quantifying Uncertaintiesin Model Prediction (QUMP) simulations using the Hadley Centre Couple Model (HadCM3) based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario were used to project the future climate. The projections were analysed for three time slices, 2011e2040 (near future), 2041e2070 (mid-century), and 2071e2098 (distant future). The results show an increase in the future frequency and intensity of climate extremes events such as dry days, consecutive dry days, and very wet days (95th percentile), with greater increases over the southern plains than in the mountainous area to the north. A significant decrease in moderate rainfall days (75th percentile) is projected over the middle (high) mountain and trans-Himalaya areas. Increases are projected in both the extreme maximum and extreme minimum temperature, with a slightly higher rate in minimum temperature. The number of warm days is projected to increase throughout the basin, with more rapid rates in the trans-Himalayan and middle mountain areas than in the plains. Warm nights are also projected to increase, especially in the southern plains. A decrease is projected in cold days and cold nights indicating overall warming throughout the basin. | Rupak RAJBHANDARI Arun Bhakta SHRESTHA Santosh NEPAL Shahriar WAHID REN Guo-Yu | 2017 | Advances in Climate Change Research2017，8，3： | 1 |
| 7 | Projection of Heat Injury to Single-Cropping Rice in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China under Future Global Warming Scenarios显示文摘Based on simulation results from the 16 CMIP5 model runs under three Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in combination with the recent five years of growth-stage data from agrometeorological observation stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, changes in heat injury and spatial distribution patterns of single-cropping rice in China during the early(2016–35), middle(2046–65), and late(2080–99) 21 st century were projected by using quantitative estimations. Relative to the reference period(1986–2005), the occurrence probabilities of heat injury to single-cropping rice under different RCP scenarios increased significantly, showing a trend of mild > moderate > severe. The occurrence probabilities increased with time and predicted emissions, especially the average and maximum occurrence probabilities, which were ~48% and ~80%,respectively, in the late 21 st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The spatial patterns of the occurrence probabilities at each level of heat injury to single-cropping rice did not change, remaining high in the middle planting region and low in the east. The high-value areas were mainly in central Anhui and southeastern Hubei provinces, and the areas extended to the northwest and northeast of the cultivation area over time. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the total area of heat injury to single-cropping rice showed a significant linear increasing trend of 7.4 × 10~3, 19.9× 10~3, and 35.3 × 10~3 ha yr^(–1), respectively, from 2016 to 2099, and the areas of heat injury were greatest in the late21 st century, accounting for ~25%, ~40%, and ~59% of the cultivation area. | Xiaomin LYU Guangsheng ZHOU Mengzi ZHOU Li ZHOU Yuhe JI | 2019 | Journal of Meteorological Research2019，33，2： | 1 |
| 8 | Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming显示文摘This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season. | Peter NOJAROV Emil GACHEV Karsten GRUNEWALD | 2019 | Journal of Mountain Science2019，16，1： | 1 |
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