Application of autocorrelation method on ionospheric short--term forecasting in China

查看全文 作　　者：LIU [1,2]Ruiyuan;LIU [1,2]Shunlin;XU [2]Zhonghua;WU [3]Jian;WANG [3]Xianyi;ZHANG [2]Beichen;HU [2]Hongqiao 机构地区：[1]School of Electronic Information of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;[2]Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China;[3]China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation, Xinxiang 453003, China 出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》索引2006年第51卷第3期,共6页 基　　金：This work was supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 863-703-105);the National Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Environment (Grant No. 51486010104QT8901) ;the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49990455). 摘　　要：Adopting the autocorrelation method in the ionospheric short-term forecasting, we put for- ward a simple and practical forecasting method― the sectional autocorrelation method, that is, for pre- dictions of one hour to four hours ahead the auto- correlation coefficient of RDF with the “iteration” method is selected, for prediction of more than four hours ahead, the autocorrelation coefficient of f0F2 with the “at once” method is used. The prediction precisions have been quantitatively estimated based on the data from Chongqing and Guangzhou Ionos- onde Stations. It is shown that the method is much improved for the predictions of one hour to four hours ahead. For the predictions of more than four hours ahead the prediction error reaches a saturation value, which is still lower than that of the “median” method. This new method could also be applied to the short-term forecasting of other ionospheric parame- ters. 关 键 词：电离层 电离层预报 自相关法 短期预报 中国