A Preliminary Study on the Use of NCEP Temperature Images and Additive Tectonic Stress from Astro-Tidal-Triggering to Forecast Short-Impending Earthquakes

查看全文 作　　者：Ma [1,2]Weiyu;Zhang [2]Xingcai;Dai [2]Xiaofang;Xie [2]Fang 机构地区：[1]Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 321000, China;[2]Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China 出　　处：《Earthquake Research in China》索引2007年第21卷第1期,共9页 基　　金：the National Natural Science Fund of China (40172101) 摘　　要：Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America(NCEP)with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i.e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003~2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time. 关 键 词：天文潮触发附加构造应力 NCEP温度图象 西藏 短临地震预报