Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice Mirrors Increasing CO_2 on Decadal Time Scale

查看全文 作　　者：Ola M [1,2]Johannessen

机构地区：[1]Mohn-Sverdrup Center for Global Ocean Studies and Operational Oceanography / Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center;[2]Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》索引2008年第1卷第1期,共6页

基　　金：supported by the Mohn-Sverdrup Center for Global Ocean Studies;Operational Oceanography at the Nansen Center and the Research Council of Norway;is a contribution to the International Polar Year―Climate of the Arctic;its Role for Europe (IPY-CARE) project, headed by the author 摘　　要：Arctic sea ice is a keystone indicator of greenhouse-gas induced global climate change, which is expected to be amplified in the Arctic. Here we directly compare observed variations in arctic sea-ice extent and CO 2 since the beginning of the 20th century, identifying a strengthening linkage, such that in recent decades the rate of sea-ice decrease mirrors the increase in CO 2 , with r ~ -0.95 over the last four decades, thereby indicating that 90% (r 2 ~ 0.90) of the decreasing sea-ice extent is empirically 'accounted for' by the increasing CO 2 in the atmosphere. The author presents an empirical relation between annual sea-ice extent and global atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, in which sea-ice reductions are linearly, inversely proportional to the magnitude of increase of CO 2 over the last few decades. This approximates sea-ice changes during the most recent four decades, with a proportionality constant of 0.030 million km 2 per ppmv CO 2 . When applied to future emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this relationship results in substantially faster ice decreases up to 2050 than predicted by IPCC models. However, departures from this projection may arise from non-linear feedback effects and/or temporary natural variations on interannual timescales, such as the record minimum of sea-ice extent observed in September 2007. 关键词：气候学冰二氧化碳气候影响

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Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice Mirrors Increasing CO_2 on Decadal Time Scale

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