Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error

查看全文 作　　者：ZHANG YanPing WANG GuoLi PENG Yong ZHOU [1]HuiCheng

机构地区：[1]School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》索引2011年第54卷第7期,共6页

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51079015, 50979011) 摘　　要：Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice. 关键词：大伙房水库洪水风险动态控制风险分析水位动态预报误差防洪风险水利用率

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Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error

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