EXPERIMENTS WITH SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ON SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION

查看全文 作　　者：丁裕国;江志红;朱艳峰 出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》索引1999年第5卷第1期,共8页 摘　　要：Predictions of averaged SST monthly anomalous series for Nino 1-4 regions in the context of auto-adaptive filter are made using a model combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and auto-regression (AR). The results have shown that the scheme is efticient in forward forecaning of the strong ENSO event in 1997- 1998, it is of high reliability in retrospective forecasting of three corresponding historical strong ENSO events. It is seen that the scheme has stable skill and large accuracy for experiments of both independent samples and real cases.With modifications, the SSA-AR scheme is expected to become an efficient model in routine predictions of ENSO. 关 键 词：SINGULAR Spectrum Analysis ENSO EVENT CLIMATE prediction auto-regression model