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Maximum Sustainable Yield Estimates of Ladypees,Sillago sihama(Forsskl),Fishery in Pakistan Using the ASPIC and CEDA Packages

查看全文 作  者:Sher Khan [1,2]Panhwar;LIU [1]Qun;Fozia [1]Khan;Pirzada [2]J.A.Siddiqui 高影响力作者 机构地区:[1]College of Fisheries,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,P.R.China;[2]Centre of Excellence in Marine Biology,University of Karachi,Sindh 75270,Pakistan高影响力机构 出  处:《Journal of Ocean University of China》索引2012年第11卷第1期,共6页高影响力期刊 基  金:supported by the special research fund ofthe Ocean University of China(201022001);the Chinese Scholarship Council(CSC) 摘  要:Using surplus production model packages of ASPIC(a stock-production model incorporating covariates) and CEDA(Catch effort data analysis),we analyzed the catch and effort data of Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistan.ASPIC estimates the pa-rameters of MSY(maximum sustainable yield),Fmsy(fishing mortality),q(catchability coefficient),K(carrying capacity or unexploited biomass) and B1/K(maximum sustainable yield over initial biomass).The estimated non-bootstrapped value of MSY based on logistic was 598 t and that based on the Fox model was 415 t,which showed that the Fox model estimation was more conservative than that with the logistic model.The R2 with the logistic model(0.702) is larger than that with the Fox model(0.541),which indicates a better fit.The coefficient of variation(cv) of the estimated MSY was about 0.3,except for a larger value 88.87 and a smaller value of 0.173.In contrast to the ASPIC results,the R2 with the Fox model(0.651-0.692) was larger than that with the Schaefer model(0.435-0.567),indicating a better fit.The key parameters of CEDA are:MSY,K,q,and r(intrinsic growth),and the three error assumptions in using the models are normal,log normal and gamma.Parameter estimates from the Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models were similar.The MSY estimations from the above two models were 398 t,549 t and 398 t for normal,log-normal and gamma error distributions,re-spectively.The MSY estimates from the Fox model were 381 t,366 t and 366 t for the above three error assumptions,respectively.The Fox model estimates were smaller than those for the Schaefer and the Pella-Tomlinson models.In the light of the MSY estimations of 415 t from ASPIC for the Fox model and 381 t from CEDA for the Fox model,MSY for S.sihama is about 400 t.As the catch in 2003 was 401 t,we would suggest the fishery should be kept at the current level.Production models used here depend on the assumption that CPUE(catch per unit effort) data used in the study can reliably quantify temporal variability in population abundance,hence the mod-eling results would be wrong if such an assumption is not met.Because the reliability of this CPUE data in indexing fish population abundance is unknown,we should be cautious with the interpretation and use of the derived population and management parameters. 关 键 词:产量估计 巴基斯坦 企业家 LOGISTIC模型 薰衣草 协会 渔业 最大持续产量
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