A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed,China

查看全文 作　　者：Yue [1,2]HUANG;Xi [2]CHEN;YongPing [3]LI;AnMing [2]BAO;YongGang [2,4]MA

机构地区：[1]College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;[2]StateKey Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;[3]MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental ResearchAcademy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;[4]Xinjiang Remote Sensing Center, Urumqi 830011, China

出　　处：《Journal of Arid Land》索引2012年第4卷第4期,共9页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951002);the Dr.Western-funded Project of Chinese Academy of Science(XBBS201010 and XBBS201005);the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (51190095);the Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering(sklhse-2012-A03) 摘　　要：This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming(STIP) model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China.The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing(ITSP).The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system,while random parameters were provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes.The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi watershed,where three scenarios with different water resources management policies were analyzed.The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agriculture,ecology and forestry sectors.In comparison,the water demand from municipality,industry and stockbreeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values.Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits,and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty. 关键词：流域水资源管理分布式水文模型中国西北地区孔雀河流域随机编程开都河仿真区间

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A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed,China

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