Analysis of stable components for extended-range (10-30 days) weather forecast:A case study of continuous overcast-rainy process in early 2009 over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River

查看全文 作　　者：FENG [1,2]GuoLin;SUN [2]ShuPeng;ZHAO [1,2]JunHu;ZHENG [1]ZhiHai

机构地区：[1]Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration;[2]College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》索引2013年第56卷第9期,共12页

基　　金：supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40930952);Science and Technology Supporting Project (Grant No.2009BAC51B04) 摘　　要：A continuous overcast-rainy weather(CORW) process occurred over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR) in China from February 14 to March 9 in 2009,with a large stretch and long duration that was rarely seen in historical records.Using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF),we analyzed the geopotential height anomaly field of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II in the same period,and defined the stable components of extended-range(10-30 days) weather forecast(ERWF).Furthermore,we defined anomalous and climatic stable components based on the variation characteristics of the variance contribution ratio of EOF components.The climatic stable components were able to explain the impact of climatically averaged information on the ERWF,and the anomalous stable components revealed the abnormal characteristics of the continuous overcast-rainy days.Our results show that the stable components,especially the anomalous stable components,can maintain the stability for a longer time(more than 10 days) and manifest as monthly scale low-frequency variation and ultra-long-wave activities.They also behave as ultra-long waves of planetary scale with a stable and vertically coherent structure,reflect the variation of general circulation in mid-high latitudes,display the cycle of the zonal circulation and the movement and adjustment of the ultra-long waves,and are closely linked to the surface CORW process. 关键词：长江下游阴雨天气天气预报稳定组件中期异常特征案例

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Analysis of stable components for extended-range (10-30 days) weather forecast:A case study of continuous overcast-rainy process in early 2009 over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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