Epidemiological and risk analysis of the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage

查看全文 作　　者：ZHUANG [1]QingYe;WANG [1,2]SuChun;WU [1,2]MeiLi;LIU [1]Shuo;JIANG [1]WenMing;HOU [1]GuangYu;LI [1]JinPing;WANG [1]KaiCheng;YU [1]JianMin;CHEN [1]JiMing;CHEN [3]JiWang

机构地区：[1]China National Avian Influenza Professional Laboratory, China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center;[2]College of Animal Science and Veterirary Medcine, Qingdao Agricultural University;[3]The Institute for Personalized Respiratory Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》索引2013年第58卷第26期,共5页

基　　金：supported by the Sci-tech Basic Work Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology (SQ2012FY3260033) 摘　　要：Dozens of human cases infected with H7N9 subtype avian influenza virus (AIV) have been confirmed in China since March, 2013. Distribution data of sexes, ages, professions and regions of the cases were analyzed in this report. The results showed that the elderly cases, especially the male elderly, were significantly more than expected, which is different from human cases of H5N1 avian influenza and human cases of the pandemic H1N1 influenza. The outbreak was rated as a Grade Ⅲ (severe) outbreak, and it would evolve into a Grade IV (very severe) outbreak soon, using a method reported previously. The H7N9 AIV will probably circulate in humans, birds and pigs for years. Moreover, with the driving force of natural selection, the virus will probably evolve into highly pathogenic AIV in birds, and into a deadly pandemic influenza virus in humans. Therefore, the H7N9 outbreak has been assumed severe, and it is likely to become very or extremely severe in the future, highlighting the emergent need of forceful scientific measures to eliminate any infected animal flocks. We also described two possible mild scenarios of the future evolution of the outbreak. 关键词：高致病性禽流感病毒爆发早期阶段风险分析流行病学亚型中国人类感染

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Epidemiological and risk analysis of the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage

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