Construction schedule risk analysis of high roller-compacted concrete dams based on improved CSRAM

查看全文 作　　者：ZHONG [1]DengHua;YANG [1]ShiRui;CHANG [1]HaoTian;YU [1]Jia;YAN [1]FuGen

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》索引2015年第58卷第6期,共10页

基　　金：supported by the Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51321065);the National Basic Research Program of China('973'Project)(Grant No.2013CB035906);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51339003) 摘　　要：The applied technology of high roller-compacted concrete(RCC) dams is quite complicated because of various risk factors, including the weather condition, supply of concrete aggregate, efficiency of transport machinery and dam surface machinery, and so on. In order to ensure the comprehensiveness, accuracy and objectivity of construction schedule risk analysis, a mathematical model called improved correlated schedule risk analysis model(CSRAM) is proposed in this paper. This model takes into account not only the construction features of high RCC dams, but also the stochastic variations of risk factors with the construction schedule, as well as their comprehensive effects. Using Monte Carlo method to solve this model enables the completion probability of a high RCC dam construction within plan time, and uncertainty analysis of risk factors. Compared with the conventional CSRAM, the improved CSRAM has higher completion probability and more convergent distribution of a simulation period, making analysis results more accurate and closer to actual engineering conditions. Among the ten risk factors selected, efficiency of dam surface machinery and proficiency of workers are found to be of the maximum uncertainty. 关键词：碾压混凝土坝风险分析模型施工进度不确定性分析基础危险因素蒙特卡罗方法机械效率

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Construction schedule risk analysis of high roller-compacted concrete dams based on improved CSRAM

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