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Migration for survival under natural disasters:A reluctant and passive choice for agriculturalists in historical China

查看全文 作　　者：PEI [1]Qing 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]Department of Social Sciences,the Education University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China高影响力机构 出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》索引2017年第60卷第12期,共8页高影响力期刊 基　　金：support from Early Career Scheme funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong(Grant No.28300717);Internal Research Grant(Grant No.RG68/2016-2017);Start-up Research Grant(Grant No.RG1/2016-2017R);Dean’s Research Output Prize(Grant No.04233-SSC ROP-3)from the Education University of Hong Kong and Rachel Carson Fellowship 2017-2018 摘　　要：This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness. 关 键 词：Natural disasters Agriculturalists'migration Population pressure Empirical analysis Historical China
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