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Science and Prediction of Heavy Rainfall over China:Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

查看全文 作　　者：Yali [1,2]LUO;Jisong [1]SUN;Ying [1]LI;Rudi [1]XIA;Yu [3,11]DU;Shuai [4]YANG;Yuanchun [4]ZHANG;Jing [5]CHEN;Kan [5]DAI;Xueshun [5]SHEN;Haoming [1]CHEN;Feifan [4,12]ZHOU;Yimin [6,12,13]LIU;Shenming [4]FU;Mengwen [7]WU;Tiangui [8]XIAO;Yangruixue [9]CHEN;Huiqi [10]LI;Mingxin [1]LI 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;[2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;[3]School of Atmospheric Sciences,and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 519082;[4]Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;[5]National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;[6]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;[7]Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau,Hangzhou 310008;[8]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225;[9]Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 43020510 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China;[10]Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510640;[11]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082;[12]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;[13]CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),Beijing 100101高影响力机构 出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》索引2020年第34卷第3期,共33页高影响力期刊 基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507400);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41775050). 摘　　要：This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China(roughly between 1980 and 2019).The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives:1)the relevant synoptic weather systems,2)heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China,and 3)heavy rainfall induced by typhoons.The development and application of forecasting techniques for heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting methods.Greatly aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing,studies of heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features.A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of heavy rainfall has also been developed.Operational forecast of heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts,and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information. 关 键 词：heavy rainfall reform and opening-up of new China physical mechanisms forecasting techniques
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