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Quantifying the sources of heterogeneity of fertility preferences in China

查看全文 作　　者：Rui [1,2]Lu;Gert [1]Stulp;Anne [1,2]H.Gauthier 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]Department of Sociology,University of Groningen,Groningen,The Netherlands;[2]Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute(NIDI-KNAW),The Hague,The Netherlands高影响力机构 出　　处：《China Population and Development Studies》索引2022年第6卷第2期,共14页高影响力期刊 基　　金：supported by scholarship(201707650023);China Scholarship Council to Rui Lu,and a VENI Grant(451-15-034);the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research to Gert Stulp. 摘　　要：There are no unanimous estimates on fertility preferences in China;they vary considerably across studies.Understanding this cross-study heterogeneity of reported preferred family size will contribute to the debates on the uncertainty of fertility in China.This paper quantified how much heterogeneity in aggregate-level fertility preferences can be explained by taking into account the demographic characteristics of the sample,its geographical location,and the measurement of fertility preferences.We retrieved 124 estimates of average preferred family size from 94 publications(from the year 2001 and onwards)in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database(CNKI)and used mixed-effect meta-regression model to investigate heterogeneity.We found that the average preferred number of children in China since 2001 ranged from 0.91 to 2.88,with an average of 1.70(SD=0.26).Demographic differences accounted for 23%,human geographic regionalization for 21%,and the measurement of fertility preferences for 13%of the between-study variation.Sample characteristics(demographic and regional differences)and the measurement of fertility preferences together accounted for 46%of the variation in average preferred fertility.The averaged preferred family size varies by differ-ent characteristics and measurement.This study also points out whether particular groups have higher or lower preferences.It helps researchers to put estimates from fertility preferences from single studies in perspective.Moreover,this study can help resolve why researchers have such different outlooks on the future fertility of China. 关 键 词：Fertility preferences China HETEROGENEITY META-ANALYSIS
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