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Predicting Ecological Distribution of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum in China Sea Using Ecological Niche Modeling

查看全文 作　　者：WANG [1]Changyou;ZHENG [1]Ping;GU [1,2]Haifeng;LUO [1]Zhaohe;LUO [1,2,3]Zhuhua;MAO [1]Longjiang;ZHANG [1]Yuanzhi 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]School of Marine Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;[2]Third Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Xiamen 361005,China;[3]Key Laboratory of Marine Biogenetic Resources,Third Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Xiamen 361005,China高影响力机构 出　　处：《Journal of Ocean University of China》索引2023年第22卷第4期,共10页高影响力期刊 基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and the Development Program of China(No.2019YFE 0124700);the China National Key Research and Development Program(No.2022YFC3106002);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1901215);the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST(No.2020r028). 摘　　要：Alexandrium minutum from the China Sea produces a range of toxins and causes damage to the local ecosystems and aquaculture.This is essential to understand environmental factors affecting potential distribution.Potential distributions of A.minutum in the China Sea were predicted based on maximum entropy modeling,and dominant environmental variables were studied through analyses of variable contributions and response curves.The results showed that highly suitable areas were mainly located in the southwest of the Yellow Sea,the Laizhou Bay,and north of Haizhou Bay.The coast of the South China Sea was predicted as a low-suitability area,and the coast of the East China Sea as an unsuitable area.Mean temperature of the coldest month(T_min)had the largest drop in permutation importance but a low percent contribution.The probability of presence of A.minutum increased with increasing concentration of nitrate(NO3−)and annual mean temperature(T_ann)over a wide range of them.The response curves decreased with increasing concentration of phosphate(PO43−)and ratio of NO_(3)^(−)to PO_(4)^(3−)(N_P_ratio)when PO_(4)^(3)−is above 0.049μmolL^(-1) and N_P_ratio above 4,indicating that low values of PO_(4)^(3−) concentration and N_P_ratio favour the occurrence of A.minutum.As a predictor,the variance of annual temperature(T_Var)had the highest percent contribution and gains.PO_(4)^(3−) was predicted to have much more information than the other variables,and exhibited the second largest drop in permutation importance and percent contribution.The T_Var and PO_(4)^(3−) are the most important dominant predictor variables. 关 键 词：Alexandrium minutum MaxEnt,habitat suitability environmental variable potential distributions
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