Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

查看全文 作　　者：Ronan [1,2]Connolly;Willie [1,3]Soon;Michael [1,2]Connolly;Sallie [4]Baliunas;Johan [5]Berglund;[6]C.J.Butler;Rodolfo Gustavo [7,8]Cionco;Ana [9,10]G.Elias;Valery [11]M.Fedorov;Hermann [12]Harde;Gregory [13]W.Henry;Douglas [14]V.Hoyt;Ole [15]Humlum;David [16]R.Legates;Nicola [17]Scafetta;Jan-Erik [18]Solheim;[3]LászlóSzarka;Víctor M.Velasco [19]Herrera;Hong [20]Yan;Weijia [21]Zhang

机构地区：[1]Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science(CERES),Salem,MA 01970,USA;[2]Independent scientists,Dublin,Ireland;[3]Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science(EPSS),Sopron,Hungary;[4]Retired,formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,Cambridge,MA 02138,USA;[5]Independent researcher,Malmö,Sweden;[6]Retired,formerly Armagh Observatory,College Hill,Armagh BT619DG,Northern Ireland,UK;[7]Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires,Argentina;[8]Grupo de Estudios Ambientales,Universidad Tecnológica Nacional,Colón 332,San Nicolás(2900),Buenos Aires,Argentina;[9]Laboratorio de Ionosfera,Atmosfera Neutra y Magnetosfera(LIANM),Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Tecnología,Universidad Nacional de Tucumán,Av.Independencia 1800,4000 Tucumán,Argentina;[10]Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas—Universidad Nacional de Tucumán),4000 Tucumán,Argentina;[11]Faculty of Geography,Lomonosov Moscow State University,Leninskie Gory St.1,Moscow 119991,Russia;[12]Helmut-Schmidt-University,Hamburg,Germany;[13]Center of Excellence in Information Systems,Tennessee State University,Nashville,TN 37209 USA;[14]Independent scientist,Berkeley Springs,WV,USA;[15]Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography,Department of Geosciences,University of Oslo,Norway;[16]Professor Emeritus,College of Earth,Ocean,and the Environment,University of Delaware,Newark DE 19716-2541,USA;[17]Department of Earth Sciences,Environment and Georesources,University of Naples Federico II,Complesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelo,via Cinthia,21,I-80126 Naples,Italy;[18]Retired,formerly Department of Physics and Technology,UiT The Arctic University of Norway,9037 Tromsø,Norway;[19]Instituto de Geofisica,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,Ciudad Universitaria,Coyoacán,04510,México D.F.,México;[20]State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China;[21]Department of Mathematics and Physics,Shaoxing University,Shaoxing 312000,China

出　　处：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》索引2023年第23卷第10期,共20页

基　　金：financial support from the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences(CERES,www.ceres-science.com)while carrying out the research for this paper;long-term support from NASA,NSF,Tennessee State University,and the State of Tennessee through its Centers of Excellence Program;the support of the grant PID-5265TC of the National Technological University of Argentina。 摘　　要：Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear regression.They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date.However,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et al.are confirmed for all five ST data sets.Therefore,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both. 关键词：Sun:activity (Sun:)solar-terrestrial relations EARTH

相关文献

参考文献（50）
引证文献（1）
耦合文献（0）

参考文献(50)

引证文献(1)

互联网出版许可证新出网证(渝)字10号全国400电话 - 免长途话费

Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

参考文献(50)

引证文献(1)

用户提示