Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products

查看全文 作　　者：Jason [1]P.Dunion;Chris [2]Davis;Helen [3]Titley;Helen [4]Greatrex;Munehiko [5]Yamaguchi;John [6]Methven;Raghavendra [7]Ashrit;Zhuo [8]Wang;Hui [9]Yu;Anne-Claire [10]Fontan;Alan [11]Brammer;Matthew [12]Kucas;Matthew [13]Ford;Philippe [14]Papin;Fernando [15]Prates;Carla [16]Mooney;Andrew [17]Kruczkiewicz;Paromita [18]Chakraborty;Andrew [16]Burton;Mark [19]DeMaria;Ryan [20]Torn;Jonathan [21]L.Vigh

机构地区：[1]CIMAS,University of Miami,and Hurricane Research Division,NOAA/AOML,Florida,USA;[2]NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory,Colorado,USA;[3]UK Met Office,Exeter,UK;[4]Pennsylvania State University,Pennsylvania,USA;[5]World Meteorological Organization,Geneva,Switzerland;[6]University of Reading,Reading,UK;[7]National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting,Ministry of Earth Sciences,Noida,India;[8]University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Illinois,USA;[9]Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,Shanghai,China;[10]WMO,Tropical Cyclone Programme(TCP),Geneva,Switzerland;[11]Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University,Colorado,USA;[12]Joint Typhoon Warning Center,Honolulu,USA;[13]MetService New Zealand,Wellington,New Zealand;[14]NOAA National Hurricane Center,Florida,USA;[15]European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,Reading,UK;[16]Bureau of Meteorology,Melbourne,Australia;[17]Columbia University,New York,USA;[18]Centre for Climate Research Singapore,Meteorological Services Singapore,Singapore;[19]CIRA/Colorado State University,Colorado,USA;[20]University at Albany-SUNY,New York,USA;[21]Research Applications Laboratory,National Center for Atmospheric Research,Colorado,USA

出　　处：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》索引2023年第12卷第4期,共18页

摘　　要：Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)relies substantially on numerical prediction systems.Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios,it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings.RSMCs,TCWCs,and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs,but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)found that the“pull-through”of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow.IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products(TC-PFP)project,which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project.The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts.TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases:Phase 1(TC formation and position);Phase 2(TC intensity and structure);and Phase 3(TC related rainfall and storm surge).This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position.There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information,making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers.Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices.Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts.Finally,forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent,user-friendly ensemble information.Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility,probabilistic forecast products,and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes. 关键词：Tropical cyclone PROBABILISTIC FORMATION POSITION

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Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products

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