| 1 | Modeling sustainability:population,inequality,consumption,and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and Human Systems显示文摘Over the last two centuries,the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically,becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many diferent ways.Consumption,inequality,and population have increased extremely fast,especially since about 1950,threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System.Changes in the Earth System,in turn,have important feedback efects on the Human System,with costly and potentially serious consequences.However,current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks.We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system,Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive,negative,and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems.In particular,key Human System variables,such as demographics,inequality,economic growth,and migration,are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates,such as United Nations population projections.his makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system,especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes,and thus requiring diferent policy interventions from current models.he importance and imminence of sustainability challenges,the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System,and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System,all call for collaboration of natural scientists,social scientists,and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising efective science-based policies and measures to beneit current and future generations. | Safa Motesharrei Jorge Rivas Eugenia Kalnay Ghassem R.Asrar Antonio J.Busalacchi Robert F.Cahalan Mark A.Cane Rita R.Colwell Kuishuang Feng Rachel S.Franklin Klaus Hubacek Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm Takemasa Miyoshi Matthias Ruth Roald Sagdeev Adel Shirmohammadi Jagadish Shukla Jelena Srebric Victor M.Yakovenko Ning Zeng | 2016 | National Science Review2016，3，4： | 34 |
| 2 | 正在变弱的印度季风和ENSO相关关系显示文摘对 1 4 0a历史资料的分析表明 :ELNino 南方涛动 (ENSO)与印度夏季风的反相关关系 (暖ENSO事件产生弱季风 )在近 1 0a来已经破坏了。有 2种可能原因。首先 ,与ENSO事件相关的瓦克环流向东南移可能导致了印度地区下沉气流减弱 ,因而有利于加强季风。另外 ,冬春季欧亚大陆地面温度升高———这是中纬度大陆变暖趋势的一部分 ,可能有利于加强陆地—海洋热力梯度 ,因而导致强季风的爆发。这就增加了这样一种可能性 :即近 1 0a来欧亚大陆变暖有助于维持正常水平的季风降水 ,尽管在这期间发生了强ENSO事件。 | K.Krishna Kumar Balaji Rajagopalan Mark A.Cane 赵连伟 | 2000 | 辽宁气象2000，，1： | 1 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员