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| 1 | IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. PART Ⅱ: LATE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY PROJECTIONS显示文摘This paper reviews the latest studies on the relationship between projected late 21 st century climate changes and tropical cyclone(TC) activity in the western North Pacific(WNP) basin, which is the region of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)/World Meteorological Organization(WMO) Typhoon Committee members. Existing studies of projected changes of TC activity in this basin, such as frequency, intensity, precipitation, genesis location and track pattern are summarized, based on an assumed A1 B future climate change scenario. A review of available studies on projected future changes in WNP landfalling TC activity is also included.While it remains uncertain whether there has been any detectable human influence on tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, precipitation, track, or related aggregated storm activity metrics in the basin, modeling studies suggest changes in future tropical cyclone activity for the WNP basin. More models project decreases than increases in tropical storm frequency(range-70% to +60%);most studies project an increase in the TC intensity(range-3% to +18%);and all six available studies that include the WNP basin project increases in TC precipitation rates(range +5 to +30%). | MING YING THOMAS R.KNUTSON HIROTAKA KAMAHORI TSZ-CHEUNG LEE | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，2： | 4 |
| 2 | IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. PART Ⅰ: PAST OBSERVATIONS显示文摘This paper reviews the current state of the science on the relationship between climate change and historical tropical cyclone(TC) activity in the western North Pacific(WNP) basin, which is the region of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee members. Existing studies of observed changes of TC activity in this basin, such as frequency, intensity, precipitation, genesis location and track pattern are summarized. Results from a survey on impacts of past TC activity on various members of Typhoon Committee are reported, along with a review of studies of past WNP landfalling TCs.With considerable interannual and interdecadal variations in the TC activity in this basin, it remains uncertain whether there has been any detectable human influence on tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, precipitation, track, or related aggregated storm activity metrics. Also, the issues of homogeneity and consistency of best track data sets in the WNP further add uncertainty to relevant research studies. Observations indicate some regional shifts in TC activity in the basin, such as a decreasing trend in TC occurrence in part of the South China Sea and an increasing trend along the east coast of China during the past 40 years. This change is apparently related to local circulation changes in the eastern Asia and WNP, though the cause of the circulation changes remains unknown. | TSZ-CHEUNG LEE THOMAS R.KNUTSON HIROTAKA KAMAHORI MING YING | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，2： | 1 |
| 3 | An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones显示文摘A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in 2018,improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones(TCs)and associated hazards and risks.These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change.New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings,including greenhouse gases and aerosols,on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales.However,there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic,and the limitations of observed TC records.The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models.A new paradigm,TC seeds,has been proposed,and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency.New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity,such as snow cover and air-sea interactions.Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report.Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers. | Suzana J.Camargo Hiroyuki Murakami Nadia Bloemendaal Savin S.Chand Medha S.Deshpande Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento Juan Jesús Gonz´alez-Alem´an Thomas R.Knutson I.-I.Lin Il-Ju Moon Christina M.Patricola Kevin A.Reed Malcolm J.Roberts Enrico Scoccimarro Chi Yung(Francis)Tam Elizabeth J.Wallace Liguang Wu Yohei Yamada Wei Zhang Haikun Zhao | 2023 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2023，12，3： | 0 |
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