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| 1 | Temporal and regional variations of China's fertilizer consumption by crops during 1998-2008显示文摘The agricultural and land policies in China are always focused on protecting its food supply and security because of the country's large population and improved diets.The crop production guide 'Take Grain as the Key Link' prompted peasants to plant grain on most of the agricultural land,leading to the majority of fertilizer being used in grain crops for many years in China.This situation has changed dramatically in recent years.Based on data pertaining to provincial crops sown area and fertilizer use per unit area in 1998 and 2008,the temporal and spatial variations of China's fertilizer consumption by crops were analyzed at the provincial level,and the results are presented here.(1) Fertilizer consumption in China grew strongly in the last decade,while the growth was mainly attributable to the increase of fertilizer con-sumption by horticultural crops.The fertilizer consumption of grain crops dropped from 71.0% in 1998 to 57.8% in 2008.Thus,it is concluded that the emphasis of fertilizer consumption is shifting toward horticultural crops.(2) There were marked differences in the growth rates of fertilizer consumption from the regional point of view.The national average growth rate of fertilizer consumption was 31.9% during 1998-2008.The western and northeastern parts of the country came close to the national average,while the eastern part was lower,with an average of 13.0%,and central China was much higher(50.8%).The increase of fertilizer consumption in central and west China was higher than the other zones,which already ac-counted for 77.9% of the national total.Thus,it is concluded that the consumption emphasis of chemical fertilizer shifts toward the central and western regions.(3) The decline of fertilizer consumption by grain crops was largely due to the decrease in sown area compared with the increase by vegetable crops attributable to the enlarging sown area;the increase by orchard crops was affected by both expanding the sown area and fertilizer use per unit area. | XIN Liangjie LI Xiubin TAN Minghong | 2012 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2012，22，4： | 49 |
| 2 | Urban land expansion and arable land loss of the major cities in China in the 1990s显示文摘Based on the land-use data in 1990 and 2000, determined by interpreting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, this paper defines the extent of urban construction land, and extracts patches of urban construction land of 145 cities with the largest areas in 1990 and arable land patches around these cities. With these data, this paper analyzes the characteristics of ur- ban construction land expansion and the consequent arable land loss in East, Middle and West China, and further identifies the social, economic and spatial factors of the urban land use changes, using GIS (Geographical Information System) and multivariate regression approaches. The results show that total urban land of the 145 cities expanded by 39.8%, with about 70% of the new urban land converted from arable land in the 1990s. The urban land expansion varied among the three regions, with a value of 43.0% in the East, 33.1% in the West (33.1%) and 17.8% in the Middle. Moreover, mean urban construction land per capita increased by10.7% in the East, but it decreased by 7.7% in the Middle, 1.4% in the West. Statistical analysis indicated that total wages of staff and workers could best explain the differences of urban land expansion. | TAN Minghong LI Xiubin LU Changhe | 2005 | Science China Earth Sciences2005，48，9： | 32 |
| 3 | Global understanding of farmland abandonment: A review and prospects显示文摘自从 1950 年代,引人注目的农田放弃在许多发达国家和一些发展中的国家一直在发生。这全球陆地使用现象根本上改变了广泛的农村风景。在驾驶变化的机制影响和后果政策回答发现了下列的陆地使用的标题下面的全球农田放弃的评论:(1 ) 农田放弃在欧洲和北美洲首先在发达国家发生了,但是放弃的程度显著地变化了。(2 ) 改变社会经济的因素是为农田放弃的主要驱动力。并且陆地 marginalization 是原因,它由于耕作机会的激烈的增加花费了的基础,当为放弃的直接因素是时,农业劳动的精神病医生强迫。(3 ) 是否沉溺于什么程度和它的空间分布在村庄,家庭和包裹规模最后依赖于从物理条件,劳动者属性,耕作和地区性的社会经济的条件的综合效果。与东方欧洲的例外,农田放弃是更可能的发生在多山、多山的区域,由于他们的相反的耕作条件。(4 ) 农田放弃的研究应该集中于它的生态、环境的效果,当时它更积极或更否定仍然在争论。(5 ) 增加农业津贴将对减缓农田放弃的率传导性,但是这不是需要被实现的唯一的措施。由于瓷器快速的都市化,有高可能性,放弃的率在不久的将来将增加。然而,很,很少研究都没在中国集中于这个快速的陆地使用趋势,并且,作为结果,有动态机制的不适当的理解和这现象的后果。这篇论文由在中国为进一步的研究建议一些未来方向得出结论。这些方向包括监视地区性、国家的放弃动力学,分析趋势,估计风险和农田放弃的社会经济的效果,并且通知政策做。 | LI Shengfa LI Xiubin | 2017 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2017，27，9： | 33 |
| 4 | Farmland marginalization in the mountainous areas: Characteristics, influencing factors and policy implications显示文摘基于 SPOT-5 图象, 1:1 百万张地志的地图,到森林工程和重庆森林工程的回来的农田的地图,聚会和经济统计,等等,这份报纸识别影响农田 marginalization 的特征和因素。结果出现了:(1 ) 在 20022012 期间,农田 marginalization 的率是 16.18% ,它主要在北 Qiyao 山的高区域和南部的 Qiyao 山的中等高度的区域被发现。并且这农田 marginalization 将增加,与农村劳动者的 non-agriculturalization 和留下的劳动者的老化联系了。(2 ) 举起,来自村庄的距离半径和道路连接在农田 marginalization 上有大影响。农田 marginalization 率随举起的增加显示出一个增加的趋势,并且 60.88% 全部的农田 marginalization 区域在海水平上面在比 1000 m 大的高度被发现。marginalization 趋势也从分发网络与斜坡和距离增加。(3 ) 农田区域每劳动者和农场劳动者的平均年龄是驾驶农田 marginalization 的主要因素。农田转移和小农业机械集合关于管理和生产率效率影响农田 marginalization。(4 ) 有 comparative-disadvantage-dominated marginalization 的农田说明了 55.32% 全部的农田 marginalization 区域,由地点主导的 marginalization (33.80%) 列在后面。(5 ) 根据每种真实状况的细节,不同政策被建议减轻 marginalization。一条连续 marginalization 政策将在地面主导的 marginalization 鼓励农田的回来到森林。一条 anti-marginalization 政策被建议创造新农村住所并且改进农村道路系统抵抗地面主导的 marginalization。并且另一条 anti-marginalization 政策被计划改进管理并且为 comparative-disadvantage-dominated marginalization 微机械化。一个新想法被开发与调查信息集成高分辨率遥感和统计数据在多山的区域识别陆地 marginalization 和它的驱动力。 | SHAO Jing'an ZHANG Shichao LI Xiubin | 2015 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2015，25，6： | 22 |
| 5 | China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years显示文摘The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good. | XIN Liangjie LI Xiubin ZHU Huiyi TAN Minghong | 2009 | Chinese Geographical Science2009，19，2： | 19 |
| 6 | Impact of livelihood diversification of rural households on their ecological footprint in agro-pastoral areas of northern China显示文摘Human-environment relationship is a focus of academic researches and an understanding of the relationship is important for making effective policies and decisions. In this study, based on rural household survey data of Taibus Banner, Duolun county and Zhengxiangbai Banner in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region of China, we identified the impact of livelihood diversification on ecosystems in these agro-pastoral areas by using the ecological footprint theory and methodology together with the one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA) and correlation analysis methods. In 2011, the total ecological footprint of consumption(EFC) was 0.665 g hm2, and the total ecological footprint of production(EFP) was 2.045 g hm2, which was more than three times the EFC. The ecological footprint of arable land consumption(EFAC) accounted for a large proportion of the EFC, and the ecological footprint of grassland production(EFGP) occupied a large proportion of the EFP. Both the ecological footprint of grassland consumption(EFGC) and EFGP had a significant positive correlation with the income, indicating that income was mainly depended on livestock production and the households with higher incomes consumed more livestock products. The full-time farming households(FTFHs) had the highest EFP, ecological footprint of arable land production(EFAP), EFGP and EFGC, followed by the part-time farming households(PTFHs) and non-farming households(NFHs), which indicated that part-time farming and non-farming employment reduced the occupancy and consumption of rural households on local ecosystems and natural resources to some extent. When farming households engaged in livestock rearing, both the EFAP and EFAC became smaller, while the EFP, EFC, EFGC and EFGP increased significantly. The differences in ecological footprints among different household groups should be taken into account when making ecosystem conservation policies. Encouraging the laborers who have the advantages of participating in non-farming employment to move out of the rural areas and increasing the diversification of livelihoods of rural households are important in reducing the environmental pressures and improving the welfare of households in the study area. Moreover, grassland should be utilized more effectively in the future. | HAO Haiguang ZHANG Jiping LI Xiubin ZHANG Huiyuan ZHANG Qiang | 2015 | Journal of Arid Land2015，7，5： | 19 |
| 7 | Spatial patterns of urban land use growth in Beijing显示文摘By using digitized land use maps of Beijing in 1982, 1992 and 1997 and employing GIS spatial analysis techniques, this paper conducts an empirical study on the spatial differentiation and spatial patterns of urban land use growth in Beijing in the period of 1982-1997. It is observed that urban land use growth in Beijing went beyond the control of urban planning, in terms of the extraordinary high growth rate and undesired spatial pattern. The rate of urban expansion after 1982, which was predominated by growth of industrial land, was extraordinary high compared to its historical period. While its growth centers have been actively shifting toward the northern part, rather than toward the southern and eastern parts as designated by the latest General Plan (1991-2010) of Beijing, its spatial pattern of urban land use growth in general was in distinct concentric sprawl, which seriously violated the General Plan of Beijing. | LIU Shenghe, Sylvia Prielei, LI Xiubin(1. Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria) | 2002 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2002，12，3： | 17 |
| 8 | Regional disparity in the changes of agricultural land use intensity in China during 1980-2002显示文摘Based on the cost-benefit data (1980–2002) of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980–2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that: (1) The degree of intensity of land use in the western region during 1980–2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. (2) The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. (3) The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process: down (1980–1985)–up (1985–1991)–down (1991–1994)–up (1994–1999)–down (1999–2002). However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. (4) The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992–1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998–2002 in the central region. | LIU Chengwu LI Xiubin | 2006 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2006，16，3： | 16 |
| 9 | Atomic force microscopy imaging and mechanical properties measurement of red blood cells and aggressive cancer cells显示文摘Mechanical properties play an important role in regulating cellular activities and are critical for unlocking the mysteries of life. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) enables researchers to measure mechanical properties of single living cells under physiological conditions. Here, AFM was used to investigate the topography and mechanical properties of red blood cells (RBCs) and three types of aggressive cancer cells (Burkitt's lymphoma Raji, cutaneous lymphoma Hut, and chronic myeloid leukemia K562). The surface topography of the RBCs and the three cancer cells was mapped with a conventional AFM probe, while mechanical properties were investigated with a microsphere glued onto a tip-less cantilever. The diameters of RBCs are significantly smaller than those of the cancer cells, and mechanical measurements indicated that Young's modulus of RBCs is smaller than those of the cancer cells. Aggressive cancer cells have a lower Young's modulus than that of indolent cancer cells, which may improve our understanding of metastasis. | LI Mi LIU LianQing XI Ning WANG YueChao DONG ZaiLi XIAO XiuBin ZHANG WeiJing | 2012 | Science China(Life Sciences)2012，55，11： | 16 |
| 10 | Impact of the shrinking winter wheat sown area on agricultural water consumption in the Hebei Plain显示文摘这研究第一分析了冬季小麦的收缩和基于 11 个城市的农业统计数据和气象学的数据从 1998~2010 在 Hebei 平原收割系统的变化,包括每日的温度, 降水,水蒸汽,来自 22 个气象学的车站的风速度和最小的相对湿度数据,然后计算了水赤字,灌溉水资源由不同收割要求系统,以及灌溉浇是保存的资源一结果如下。1 ) 在都在学习时期期间缩小的 Hebei 平原的 11 个城市里的冬季小麦的播种区域。收缩率是16.07%,全部的收缩区域等于离子的液体是的 49.62f 10wt%( 0.1 g 离子的液体/ 1 g 活跃的碳搬运人)并且Pd2+的理论内容是5wt%( 0.05 g Pd2+/ 1 g 活跃的碳搬运人),吗最高催化的活动 2 963.64 gSTCO/( gPd 訐?訐?? | WANG Xue LI Xiubin XIN Liangjie | 2014 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2014，24，2： | 16 |
| 11 | Urban spatial development and land use in Beijing: Implications from London's experiences显示文摘Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development,protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile,London,as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization,has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area,such as the creation of Garden Cities,a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area,arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then,some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly,several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing,concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing,measures to improve the green belt,the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill,and effective implementation of land-use planning. | TAN Minghong GUY M. Robinson LI Xiubin | 2011 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2011，21，1： | 13 |
| 12 | Tillage Pedogenesis of Purple Soils in Southwestern China显示文摘Land cultivation and tillage process, and their consequent impacts on soil erosion, have been criticized as the main cause of degradation of land or soil quality. However, purple soils, classified as Regosols in FAO Taxonomy or Entisols in USDA Taxonomy, are formed from purple rocks of the Trias-Cretaceous system, have been developed or at least accelerated the development due to continual tillage operation, especially digging and ridging. The present study took micromorphological investigation on the sedimentary rocks and the soils under different operations of tillage. Results show that the purple rock of Feixiangguan Formation of the Trias system (T1f) is the easiest to physical weathering and the most fertile soil material enriched in nutrients, and it has been, therefore, mostly cultivated and intensively tilled around the year. It has the fastest soil formation rate. Soil formation rate in the cropland with conventional tillage is higher than that in the forestland and the grassland. It implies that the artificial brokenness and tillage disturbance play a great role in physical weathering and initiating soil formation processes. | HE Xiubin BAO Yuhai NAN Hongwei XIONG Donghong WANG Li LIU Yanfeng ZHAO Jingbo | 2009 | Journal of Mountain Science2009，6，2： | 10 |
| 13 | Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961-2005显示文摘Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area,the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station(Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations.Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method.The referenced period(1961-1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period(1981-2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method,mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique.Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model,impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s,the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970.(2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities.(3) During 1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005 and 1981-2005,the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108,0.28×108,1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%,7.13%,40.71% and 23.79% accordingly.Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period. | LI Zijun LI Xiubin XU Zhimei | 2010 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2010，20，6： | 8 |
| 14 | Spatial and Temporal Variability of Farm Size in China in Context of Rapid Urbanization显示文摘During the last 30 years,China has witnessed rapid economic growth and dramatic urbanization,with about 1.2 × 107rural people migrating annually into urban areas.Meanwhile,especially since 1995,the rural population has been declining,which is closely linked to land circulation and the increase in farm size in many villages.Increasing scale of farming operations is often regarded as a key to avoiding the abandonment of farmland and to increasing the income of rural farmers.However,until now,there has been little research on the spatial and temporal variability of farm size at the national level in China.Using data from the national agricultural census and rural household surveys,this study examines the characteristics of land use circulation and the consequent changes in the area of farmland per household.The results show that: 1) 12.2% of rural households were involved in land circulation at the national level.The highest amounts of land circulation have occurred in those provinces where the farmland per capita is more than 0.2 ha or less than 0.1 ha;2) over 80% of households operate less than 0.6 ha of farmland;3) the proportion of mid-sized farms(between 0.2 ha and 0.6 ha per household) has decreased while the smallest and the largest farms have increased.This bears some similarity with the phenomenon known as the ′disappearing middle′,referring to the changes in farm size.This study establishes a framework for interpreting the factors affecting the changes in farm size in China,which include two promoting factors(urbanization and agriculture) and four hindering factors(agricultual land system,household registration,stable clan system,and farmland loss). | TAN Minghong Guy M ROBINSON LI Xiubin XIN Liangjie | 2013 | Chinese Geographical Science2013，23，5： | 8 |
| 15 | Deformation geometry and timing of the Wupoer thrust belt in the NE Pamir and its tectonic implications显示文摘 | Xiaogan CHENG Hanlin CHEN Xiubin LIN Shufeng YANG Shenqiang CHEN Fenfen ZHANG Kang LI Zelin LIU | 2016 | Frontiers of Earth Science2016，10，4： | 6 |
| 16 | Mapping CD20 molecules on the lymphoma cell surface using atomic force microscopy显示文摘Atomic force microscopy (AFM) was used to locate CD20 molecules on the surface of lymphoma Raji cells. Rituximab (a monoclonal antibody against CD20) molecules were linked onto the AFM tip via a polyethylene glycol (PEG) linker. Raji cells were adsorbed onto glass slides coated with poly-L-lysine. First, the CD20 distribution in a local area of the cell surface was visualized using the AFM lift scan mode. Second, 16 × 16 force curves were obtained from the same cell area to construct the CD20-rituximab binding force map. Finally, free rituximab was added to block the CD20 molecules on the cell surface and the lift phase image and CD20-rituximab force map were obtained again. The experimental results indicated that when the lift height was greater than the length of the PEG linker, no recognition sites were observed in the lift phase image. However, as the lift height decreased to the length of the PEG linker, some recognition sites were observed in the lift phase image and these sites were generally consistent with the pixels in the force map. After blocking, both the recognition sites in the lift phase image and the gray pixels in the binding force map decreased markedly. These results can improve our understanding of the distribution of protein molecules on the cell surface and facilitate further investigations into cellular functions. | LI Mi LIU LianQing XI Ning WANG YueChao DONG ZaiLi XIAO XiuBin ZHANG WeiJing | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，13： | 6 |
| 17 | Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China显示文摘Based on the data from the Cost-benefit Data of Farm Produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook,this paper aims to examine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total grain production and its affecting factors.The results show that:1) During 1980 to 2007,total grain production increased from 3.20 × 108 t to 5.02 × 108 t in China,with annual increasing rate of 1.68%.From the regional disparities,most of the regions present increasing trend of total grain production except for several regions with higher level of economic development;2) Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in 1980 to 1.06 × 108 ha in 2007,which has negative effect on total grain production;3) The increase of grain yield per unit area caused by land use intensity changes contributed to the increase of total grain yield greatly.However,as the land use intensity showed that farmers pay more attention to labor-saving input but not yield-increasing input,the less enthusiasm of farmers in grain production may become an important constraint on fu-ture grain production increase in China;4) Based on the results,this paper proposed different land management poli-cies in different regions,for example,the government should protect cultivated land,promote large scale production.As to the less developed regions,the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies to promote farm-ers' enthusiasm in grain production. | CHEN Yuqi LI Xiubin WANG Jing | 2011 | Chinese Geographical Science2011，21，6： | 6 |
| 18 | Mountain Effect and Differences in Storm Floods between Northern and Southern Sources of the Songhua River Basin显示文摘In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years' period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions. | LI Hongyan WU Ya'nan LI Xiubin | 2012 | Journal of Mountain Science2012，9，3： | 6 |
| 19 | Atomic force microscopy imaging of live mammalian cells显示文摘Atomic force microscopy (AFM) was used to examine the morphology of live mammalian adherent and suspended cells. Time-lapse AFM was used to record the locomotion dynamics of MCF-7 and Neuro-2a cells. When a MCF-7 cell retracted, many small sawtooth-like filopodia formed and reorganized, and the thickness of cellular lamellipodium increased as the retraction progressed. In elongated Neuro-2a cells, the cytoskeleton reorganized from an irregular to a parallel, linear morphology. Suspended mammalian cells were immobilized by method combining polydimethylsiloxane-fabricated wells with poly-L-lysine electrostatic adsorption. In this way, the morphology of a single live lymphoma cell was imaged by AFM. The experimental results can improve our understanding of cell locomotion and may lead to improved immobilization strategies. | LI Mi LIU LianQing XI Ning WANG YueChao DONG ZaiLi XIAO XiuBin ZHANG WeiJing | 2013 | Science China(Life Sciences)2013，56，9： | 6 |
| 20 | Mechanism and Forecasting Methods for Severe Droughts and Floods in Songhua River Basin in China显示文摘The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933-2009) and Nierji (1886-2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 10 9 m 3 , which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid-to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes:mid-to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper. | LI Hongyan WANG Yuxin LI Xiubin | 2011 | Chinese Geographical Science2011，21，5： | 5 |
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