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| 1 | 基于组合预测的间断性需求器材预测显示文摘为了提高间断性需求装备器材的预测精度,提出一种组合预测模型。该模型从解释变量序列和自相关序列两个方面进行组合预测,对解释变量序列采用Logistic回归模型预测提前期非零需求发生概率,对自相关序列采用Markov过程估计提前期非零需求发生概率,整合两个预测结果得到最终的提前期需求。实验结果表明,该预测模型具有较高的预测精度。 | 许绍杰 张衡 聂涛 王晗中 | 2012 | 系统工程与电子技术2012，34，1： | 8 |
| 2 | Uncertainty analysis of hydrological processes based on ARMA-GARCH model显示文摘Uncertainty analysis and risk analysis are two important areas of modern water resource management,in which accurate variance estimation is required.The traditional runoff model is established under the assumption that the variance is a constant or it changes with the seasons.However,hydrological processes in the real world are often heteroscedastic,which can be tested by McLeod-Li test and Engle Lagrange multiplier test.In such cases,the GARCH model of hydrological processes is established in this article.First,the seasonal factors in the sequence are removed.Second,the traditional ARMA model is established.Then,the GARCH model is used to correct the residual.At last,the daily runoff data in 1949-2001 of Yichang Hydrological Station is taken to be an example.The result shows that compared to the traditional ARMA model,the GARCH model has the ability to predict more accurate confidence intervals under the same confidence level. | WANG HongRui GAO Xiong QIAN LongXia YU Song | 2012 | Science China(Technological Sciences)2012，55，8： | 6 |
| 3 | HM-Bayes网络降水空间插值模型的改进及其应用显示文摘基于隐马氏性分析的贝叶斯(HM-Bayes)网络降水空间插值模型是一种空间异相关模型,具备统计学背景强和插值精度高的特点,但该模型未充分考虑典型自然地理要素对降水过程的影响.本文根据降水过程与地表特征的相互作用,建立降水与高程、坡度、坡向的空间分布关联,对HM-:Bayes网络降水插值模型进行了改进,并以无定河流域264:个月32个水文站点的降水记录为例,检测模型精度.结果表明,改进后模型的均方根误差和相对误差的均值分别为24.25毫米/月和0.24,比改进前模型分别降低了23.62%和33.43%.因此,改进后模型插值精度高,提升效果明显,尤其在地形差异大、站点稀疏的地区,精度增幅大.同时,该模型参数物理意义明确,适用性广,运算效率高,灵活性强,具备在地形差异大和无资料地区推广应用的潜力. | 刘虹利 王红瑞 孙沁田 杨中文 洪思扬 | 2016 | 系统工程理论与实践2016，36，11： | 3 |
| 4 | Parameter uncertainty modeling of safety instrumented systems显示文摘In this study,a novel safety integrity level(SIL)determination methodology of safety instrumented systems(SISs)with parameter uncertainty is proposed by combining multistage dynamic Bayesian networks(DBNs)and Monte Carlo simulation.A multistage DBN model for SIL determination with multiple redundant cells is established.The models of function inspection test interval and function inspection test stages are alternately connected to form the multistage DBNs.The redundant cells can have different M out of N voting system architectures.An automatic modeling of conditional probability between nodes is developed.The SIL determination of SISs with parameter uncertainty is constructed by using the multistage DBNs and Monte Carlo simulation.A high-pressure SIS in the export of oil wellplatform is adopted to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach.The SIL and availability of the SIS and its subsystems are obtained.The influence of single subsystem on the SIL and availability of the SIS is studied.The influence of single redundant element on the SIL and availability of the subsystem is analyzed.A user-friendly SIL determination software with parameter uncertainty is developed on MATLAB graphical user interface. | Bao-Ping Cai Wen-Chao Li Yong-Hong Liu Yan-Ping Zhang Yi Zhao Xiang-Di Kong Zeng-Kai Liu Ren-Jie Ji Qiang Feng | 2021 | Petroleum Science2021，18，6： | 1 |
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