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| 1 | Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models显示文摘Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios. | CHEN HuoPo | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 66 |
| 2 | 青藏高原未来气候变化预估:CMIP5模式结果显示文摘本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中对青藏高原气候模拟较优的气候模式,在RCP4.5中等偏低辐射强迫情景下对青藏高原未来气候变化进行了预估研究.结果表明,青藏高原年均地表气温在2006~2100年的线性趋势平均为0.26℃/10a,增暖幅度与海拔高度大体成正比;相比于1986~2005年参考时段,2090年代平均升温2.7℃,21世纪末期增温幅度明显高于早期和中期;在早、中和末期,年均增温分别为0.8~1.3℃、1.6~2.5℃和2.1~3.1℃;各季节也均为变暖趋势,其中冬季增温最大.对于年均降水来说,未来百年将小幅增加,集合平均趋势为1.15%/10a,2090年代较参考时段增加10.4%;在早、中和末期的变化范围分别为-1.8%至15.2%、-0.9%至17.8%和1.4%至21.3%;季节降水也呈增加趋势,夏季增幅明显高于其余三个季节且在21世纪末期较大,青藏高原未来年均降水增加主要来自于夏季.需要指出的是,上述预估结果在气候模式间存在着一定的差异,未来气候变化的不确定性范围较大,地表气温的可信度相对较高,而降水的则偏低. | 胡芩 姜大膀 范广洲 | 2015 | 大气科学2015，39，2： | 65 |
| 3 | 透视中国自然灾害区域分异规律与区划研究显示文摘中国是受自然灾害影响最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多,发生频率高,受灾影响地域广,伴随着全球气候变化以及中国经济的快速发展和快速城市化,自然灾害形成更加复杂,灾害应对以及防范形势更显严峻。开展自然灾害区域分异规律与区划的研究,一直是综合减灾和国际地理科学研究的重要领域,同时对制定区域发展规划、综合减灾规划、生态文明建设规划等都有着重要的意义。对中国自然灾害区域分异规律与区划研究进展进行了梳理,即分析了从基于地质构造的自然灾害区划到基于孕灾环境的自然灾害区划,再到针对应用目标的农业自然灾害区划、城市自然灾害区划、自然灾害救助区划等的理解与认识,展示中国过去几十年灾害时空格局与区域分异研究的发展历程。结果表明:在自然与人文因素作用下,中国自然灾害呈现出明显的东西分异为主、南北分异为辅,且在高、低灾情区域镶嵌着低、高灾情片的空间格局。在这些研究基础上,倡导在促进灾害风险科学发展和保障区域可持续性需求下,应进一步加深对环境和自然灾害区域分异规律与区划的研究,同时尽快开展自然灾害综合风险区划的研究工作。 | 史培军 王季薇 张钢锋 孔锋 王静爱 | 2017 | 地理研究2017，36，8： | 44 |
| 4 | Near Future (2016-40) Summer Precipitation Changes over China as Projected by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under the RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario: Comparison between RCM Downscaling and the Driving GCM显示文摘Multi-decadal high resolution simulations over the CORDEX East Asia domain were performed with the regional climate model RegCM3 nested within the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2). Two sets of simulations were conducted at the resolution of 50 km, one for present day (1980-2005) and another for near-future climate (2015-40) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Results show that RegCM3 adds value with respect to FGOALS-g2 in simulating the spatial patterns of summer total and extreme precipitation over China for present day climate. The major deficiency is that RegCM3 underestimates both total and extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River valley. The potential changes in total and extreme precipitation over China in summer under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. Both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 results show that total and extreme precipitation tend to increase over northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau, but tend to decrease over southeastern China. In both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2, the change in extreme precipitation is weaker than that for total precipitation. RegCM3 projects much stronger amplitude of total and extreme precipitation changes and provides more regional-scale features than FGOALS-g2. A large uncertainty is found over the Yangtze River valley, where RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 project opposite signs in terms of precipitation changes. The projected change of vertically integrated water vapor flux convergence generally follows the changes in total and extreme precipitation in both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2, while the amplitude of change is stronger in RegCM3. Results suggest that the spatial pattern of projected precipitation changes may be more affected by the changes in water vapor flux convergence, rather than moisture content itself. | 邹立维 周天军 | 2013 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2013，30，3： | 29 |
| 5 | Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2℃ global warming显示文摘Based on a 153-year (1948-2100) transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2℃ with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6℃ compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2℃ global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%-8.5% with respect to the 1986-2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm (cold) temperature events increase (decrease). With respect to the 1986-2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d -1 , 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes. | LANG XianMei SUI Yue | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 27 |
| 6 | CMIP5模式对中国东北气候模拟能力的评估显示文摘利用CN05观测资料和参与IPCC第五次评估报告的45个全球气候系统模式的模拟结果,分析了新一代全球气候模式对中国东北三省(1961-2005年)气温和降水的模拟能力。结果表明:1)绝大多数模式都能较好地模拟出研究区内显著增温的趋势,对气温的年际变化模拟能力则相对有限;2)所有模式均能很好地再现气温气候态的空间分布特征,且多模式集合模拟结果优于绝大多数单个模式,空间相关系数达到了0.96;3)对于降水的模拟结果,模式间差异较大,多模式集合能较好地再现其空间分布规律(空间相关系数为0.86),对降水年际变化及线性变化趋势的模拟能力则较差。总体来说,多模式集合对东北气候的时空变化特征具有一定的模拟能力,且对气温模拟效果优于降水,对空间分布的模拟能力优于时间变化。 | 陶纯苇 姜超 孙建新 | 2016 | 气候与环境研究2016，21，3： | 25 |
| 7 | Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China显示文摘This study analyses the decadal changes in winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China. The results show that, together with a trend of winter warming in China, winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in the region are also increasing. In addition, concurrent with the decadal warming shift that occurred in the mid-1980s, precipitation and extreme precipitation both increased significantly. Quantitative analysis shows that precipitation and extreme precipitation increased at rates of 9.7% and 22.6% per 1℃ of surface warming in China. This rate of precipitation increase is greater than the global mean, which indicates that precipitation in China is highly sensitive to climate warming and further highlights the importance of studying regional responses to climate warming. The fact that extreme precipitation is increasing at a higher rate than precipitation implies that winter precipitation in China will increasingly be of more extreme type in the context of global warming, which could partly explain why there have recently been a number of record-breaking extreme snowfall events in China. | SUN JianQi AO Juan | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 24 |
| 8 | 中国冰川脆弱性现状评价与未来预估显示文摘冰川的脆弱性是指冰川对气候变化的脆弱性.基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可比性原则、可操作性原则,以气候变化脆弱性的暴露度、敏感性与适应能力三要素为标准,遴选构建了我国冰川脆弱性评价指标体系.使用中国1961-2007年594个站点的年平均气温和590个站点的年降水量资料、中国第一、二次冰川编目数据,借助RS与GIS技术平台,使用空间主成分方法,构建了冰川脆弱性指数模型,在区域尺度上综合评价了中国冰川脆弱性的现状.基于IPCC A1B气候情景下气温和降水量变化预估数值、21世纪冰川变化预估数据,对2030年代和2050年代的冰川脆弱性进行了初步预估.依据自然分类法,将冰川脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5个等级.结果表明:从现状看,中国冰川对气候变化很脆弱,约92%的冰川作用区存在不同程度的脆弱性,而且强度脆弱区和极强度脆弱区面积占研究区总面积的41%;情景和动态上,2030年代和2050年代仍有约80%的冰川作用区存在不同程度的脆弱性,但整体上冰川脆弱性呈减弱趋势,局部地区冰川仍处于强度和极强度脆弱状态.冰川脆弱性是多因素综合影响的结果,在现状情况下,冰川脆弱程度主要取决于冰川的地形暴露和冰川对气候变化的敏感性;2030年代和2050年代除地形因素之外,降水量变化上升成为冰川脆弱程度的关键影响因素.在未来气候持续变暖情况下,冰川脆弱性不增反降,冰川对气候变化的敏感性降低可能是主要原因. | 杨建平 李曼 杨岁桥 谭春萍 | 2013 | 冰川冻土2013，35，5： | 22 |
| 9 | 贵州1960-2016年气温时空变化特征显示文摘气温是气候变化研究中最主要的构成要素之一,对区域生态环境有着重要的影响。运用线性倾向率、MannKendall突变检验、小波分析等方法对贵州省19个气象站近57年温度资料进行了年与季节尺度变化特征分析,结果表明:贵州近57年年和季节温度均呈现明显的波动上升趋势,年升温速率0.13℃/10a,春季、夏季、秋季、冬季升温速率分别为:0.11℃/10a,0.09℃/10a,0.18℃/10a,0.17℃/10a,进入21世纪后升温进程加速,但在空间分布上差异性显著,气温升温区域与降温区域交替并存;年均温和秋季气温在2001年发生突变,春季和冬季均温分别在2005年、1987年发生突变,突变前后温度变化差异较大,夏季气温未检测到突变现象;另外,贵州气温变化周期性特征并不明显,缺乏能量较大、信号稳定的全时域周期振荡;冬季温度周期性变化特征较为复杂,呈现出5~7,10~15a等多个时间尺度的周期特征。 | 朱大运 熊康宁 董晓超 | 2018 | 水土保持研究2018，25，4： | 22 |
| 10 | Future Changes and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation over China Based on CMIP5 Models显示文摘Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface air temperature(SAT) is predicted to increase by 1.3℃± 0.7℃, 2.6℃± 0.8℃ and 5.2℃± 1.2℃ under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to 1986–2005, respectively. The future change in SAT averaged over China increases the most in autumn/winter and the least in spring, while the uncertainty shows little seasonal variation.Spatially, the annual and seasonal mean SAT both show a homogeneous warming pattern across China, with a warming rate increasing from southeastern China to the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, invariant with time and emissions scenario.The associated uncertainty in SAT decreases from northern to southern China. Meanwhile, by 2081–2100, the annual mean precipitation increases by 5% ± 5%, 8% ± 6% and 12% ± 8% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The national average precipitation anomaly percentage, largest in spring and smallest in winter, and its uncertainty, largest in winter and smallest in autumn, show visible seasonal variations. Although at a low confidence level, a homogeneous wetting pattern is projected across China on the annual mean scale, with a larger increasing percentage in northern China and a weak drying in southern China in the early 21 st century. The associated uncertainty is also generally larger in northern China and smaller in southwestern China. In addition, both SAT and precipitation usually show larger seasonal variability on the sub-regional scale compared with the national average. | TIAN Di GUO Yan DONG Wenjie | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，4： | 21 |
| 11 | Simulated change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle on the Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2010显示文摘The near-surface freeze/thaw cycle in cold regions plays a major role in the surface energy budget,hydrological activity,and terrestrial ecosystems.In this study,the Community Land Model,Version 4 and a suite of high-resolution atmospheric data were used to investigate the changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to the warming on the Tibetan Plateau from1981 to 2010.The in situ observations-based validation showed that,considering the cause of scale mismatch in the comparison,the simulated soil temperature,freeze start and end dates,and freeze duration at the near-surface were reasonable.In response to the warming of the Tibetan Plateau at a rate of approximately 0.44°C decade-1,the freeze start-date became delayed at an area-mean rate of1.7 days decade-1,while the freeze end-date became advanced at an area-mean rate of 4.7 days decade-1.The delaying of the freeze start-date,which was combined with the advancing of the freeze end-date,resulted in a statistically significant shortening trend with respect to the freeze duration,at an area-mean rate of 6.4 days decade-1.Such changes would strongly affect the surface energy flux,hydrological processes,and vegetation dynamics.We also found that the rate of freeze-duration shortening at the near-surface soil layer was approximately 3.0 days decade-1lower than that at a depth of 1 m.This implied that the changes in soil freeze/thaw cycles at the near surface cannot be assumed to reflect the situation in deeper soil layers.The significant correlations between freeze duration and air temperature indicated that the shortening of the near-surface freeze duration was caused by the rise in air temperature,which occurred especially in spring,followed by autumn.These results can be used to reveal the laws governing the response of the near-surface freeze/thaw cycle to climate change and indicate related changes in permafrost. | Donglin Guo Huijun Wang | 2014 | Chinese Science Bulletin2014，59，20： | 19 |
| 12 | 青藏高原东部冰川平衡线高度的模拟及预测显示文摘冰川变化数值模拟及预测是全球变化的前沿领域,冰川平衡线高度(ELA)作为对气候状态的直接响应,其变化直接体现冰川的扩张和消融.本文基于能量物质平衡方程,由气象观测为输入数据,模拟了青藏高原东部冰川ELA的空间分布,模拟结果显示自1970年以来,高原东部冰川ELA以2~8m/a的速率升高,高原边缘,特别是在祁连山和藏东南,部分冰川的ELA已经达到或超过了冰川顶部,意味着该地冰川处在消亡边缘.为预测ELA的变化趋势,以唐古拉山小冬克玛底冰川和祁连山七一冰川为例,采用IPCC给出的低、中、高三种碳排放路径下21世纪的气候变化情景,发现在采取大力减排措施的RCP2.6情景下,两冰川ELA都在2040年左右达到最大值且接近冰川顶部,冰川积累区大幅度缩小.在RCP4.5中排放路径下,两冰川ELA将在2045年左右超过冰川顶部,冰川积累区消失,冰川将强烈消融直至消亡.在RCP8.5高排放路径下,两冰川ELA将在2035年左右超过冰川顶部,冰川积累区消失,冰川将急剧消融直至消亡.从物质能量平衡角度证明在当前全球变暖背景下,不论在何种情景下,高原东部山地冰川将加剧退缩乃至消亡. | 段克勤 姚檀栋 石培宏 郭学军 | 2017 | 中国科学:地球科学2017，47，1： | 18 |
| 13 | 榆林地区植被指数动态变化及其对气候和人类活动的响应显示文摘榆林地区是中国典型生态脆弱区,植被生态系统对气候变化和人类活动影响较为敏感。以榆林地区2000—2015年MODIS NDVI为基础,结合气温、降水数据,利用线性趋势法、相关系数、偏相关系数及缓冲区方法,分析了区域NDVI(归一化差异植被指数)动态变化及其对气候和人类活动的响应,结果表明:(1)榆林地区总体上NDVI较小,植被覆盖水平较低。2000—2015年NDVI以每年0.009 6的线性速率递增,空间上主要表现出线性增加趋势,占总面积的97.06%,减少趋势面积较小且主要与人类活动有关,分布在区域西南部山区、城镇附近及中、东部的河流谷地。(2)相关分析表明,榆林地区NDVI与气温以负相关为主,而与降水以正相关为主,反映出干旱、半干旱地区水分是植物生长的主导因子。(3)NDVI变化过程反映出人类活动范围中,市级行政中心缓冲区人类活动强度高于县级行政中心缓冲区。市级行政中心缓冲区范围可划分为5 km以内受人类活动剧烈影响区域、5~9km受人类活动影响递减区域和9 km以外未受人类活动影响区域。 | 王涛 杨梅焕 | 2017 | 干旱区研究2017，34，5： | 17 |
| 14 | 基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述显示文摘随着全球气候变化愈加剧烈,区域气候的差异化特征越来越明显,单单利用全球气候模式对区域气候进行研究已经不能满足时空尺度的要求。由于区域气候模式具有更高的空间分辨率等优势,使用区域气候模式能够有效解决这一问题,目前区域气候模式已在全球范围内得到广泛应用。本文简述了区域气候模式发展历程、最新研究进展以及全球主流的动力降尺度区域模式,归纳了气候情景发展;分别从气温和降水两方面着重总结了区域气候模式在全球不同区域不同情景应用情况,分析了未来全球不同区域气候变化趋势,尽管不同研究者所使用模式存在差异,对未来降水预估不尽相同,区域性比较明显,但几乎所有研究一致认为未来全球仍将经历一个持续增暖过程。文章最后对区域气候模式模拟过程中存在的问题进行了概述并对未来区域气候模式发展方向进行了展望,给出中国区域气候模式未来发展方向。 | 张磊 王春燕 潘小多 | 2018 | 高原气象2018，37，5： | 15 |
| 15 | Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario显示文摘This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model(RegCM3) under the SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.The standardized precipitation index(SPI),which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics(in terms of their intensity,duration,and spatial extent) in China,is used in this study.The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent.These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China.Considering China as a whole,the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced.In contrast,future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently.Additionally,the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase. | CHEN Huo-Po SUN Jian-Qi CHEN Xiao-Li | 2013 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2013，6，1： | 15 |
| 16 | Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3)显示文摘Based on a consecutive simulation of the 21st century conducted by RegCM3, changes in climate extremes over China are investigated, following abasic validation of the model performances in simulating present climate. The model is one-way nested within the global model of CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires. A total of 150-years (1951-2100) transient simulation is carried out at 25 km grid spacing under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The indices of the extremesincludes SU (summer days), FD (frost days), GSL (growing season length) for temperature, SDII (simple daily intensity index), R10 (no. of days with precipitation 10 mm/d), and CDD (consecutive dry days) for precipitation. Results show that the model can reproduce both the spatial distribution and the values of the present day annual mean temperature and precipitationwell, and it also shows good performances in simulating the extreme indices. Following the significant warming, the indices of SU and GSL for warm events will increase while the indices of FD for cold events will decrease over China. Heavy precipitation events as measured by SDII and R10 show an general increase over the region, except the decrease ofR10 in the Northeast and central Tibetan Plateau andless change or decrease of it along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Decrease of drynessas measured by CDD over northern part of China while increase of it over the Tibetan Plateau, Sichuan Basin and other places in southern China are simulated by the model. This leads to the less change of the regional mean CDD in the time series in the 21st century unlike the other indices, which show clear trend of change following the time evolution. | XU JiYun SHI Ying GAO XueJie GIORGI Filippo | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 15 |
| 17 | RegCM4.0对一个全球模式20世纪气候变化试验的中国区域降尺度:温室气体和自然变率的贡献显示文摘近几十年来,中国区域气候经历了以变暖和东部降水呈现"南涝北旱"分布特征为主的变化.这里基于一个区域气候模式(Reg CM4.0)历史模拟和归因试验的对比,探讨了温室气体排放和自然变率分别对上述特征形成及各大水文流域气候变化成因的可能贡献.试验中Reg CM4.0的分辨率取为50 km,积分时间为1961~2005年,两个试验的驱动场分别来自于BCC_CSM1.1全球气候模式的历史试验和归因试验结果.分析结果表明,1961~2005年观测中出现的气候变暖现象,在所有流域均主要是由于人为温室气体排放引起的,在大部分流域自然变率亦有所贡献,中国区域平均的变暖中,人为温室气体排放所产生的作用达到80%.中国东部降水的"南涝北旱"分布变化,则可能主要是自然变率起了主导作用,人为温室气体排放在一定程度上减弱了这种变化的强度;中国西北地区的降水增加,可能主要源于人为温室气体排放的贡献,自然变率的作用与其相反,是导致降水减少的.同时指出,分析结果中关于气温的结论相对可靠性较高,降水的结论尚存在较大不确定性,未来需开展进一步的深入研究. | 张冬峰 高学杰 罗勇 夏军 GIORGI Filippo | 2015 | 科学通报2015，60，17： | 11 |
| 18 | 黄河源区1961—2017降水序列趋势及突变识别显示文摘【目的】通过对黄河园源区降水序列趋势及突变特征的识别分析,为水资源规划提供科学依据。【方法】运用MannKendall秩序检验法、滑动T检验法、ArcGIS地图法等,对黄河源区9个气象站点1961-2017年降水趋势及突变点进行诊断与识别。【结果】1961-2017年,黄河源区的年降水序列呈微弱上升趋势,源区内降水序列在2002年发生突变。春季、夏季、冬季降水序列分别在1975年、1980年,2002年,1997年发生突变,秋季降水序列未发生显著突变。1961-2017年源区东南部和西北部年降水增加趋势明显,源区内甘德、河南、久治、玛沁、兴海在57年间发生突变。【结论】黄河源区近57年来,降水量呈现增加趋势,季节降水变化显著,局部区域降水波动较大,对黄河源区农牧业发展有利。 | 马莲 卢素锦 司剑华 谷鑫鑫 黄丽娜 祁玥 马生丽 李树森 赵梓祺 桂子菊 李红梅 | 2019 | 四川农业大学学报2019，37，6： | 11 |
| 19 | 2010~2060年中国森林碳汇的时空动态及其调控策略显示文摘造林是陆地生态系统吸收二氧化碳和增加碳汇最有效和生态友好的方式.本文假定在适宜造林土地上造林的条件下,利用森林固碳(FCS)模型和中国区域内3365块森林样地的调查数据,估算了中国现存森林和新造林2010~2060年在3种造林情景和3种气候情景下的固碳速率(CSR).在不考虑极端事件和人为干扰的情况下,中国森林生态系统的平均CSR为0.358±0.016 Pg C a^(-1),植被和土壤碳库的CSR分别为0.211±0.016和0.147±0.005 Pg C a^(-1).现存森林约占整体CSR的93.5%,在2035年前后达到峰值,2035年以后总体呈下降趋势.2035年以后,需要有效的抚育管理来维持较高的CSR,如择伐、间伐等;而新造林在整体CSR增长中发挥很小的作用.总体来看,CSR在东北、西南和中南地区较高,在西北地区较低.2010~2060年期间,中国森林通过固碳可以抵消14.1%的人为碳排放.但是,要达到森林预期的固碳潜力,需要国家实施有效的现存森林管理策略和制定合适的造林政策. | 蔡伟祥 何念鹏 李明旭 徐丽 王龙柱 朱建华 曾楠 闫镤 司国新 张小全 岑晓喻 于贵瑞 孙建新 | 2022 | Science Bulletin2022，67，8： | 11 |
| 20 | Future changes in coverage of 1.5℃ and 2℃warming thresholds显示文摘The areas covered by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming thresholds under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were analyzed based on 22 CMIP5 models. More than 90% of the model runs are in agreement that by the end of the 21 st century, near-surface air temperature changes over ~5%(~2%), ~40%(~18%), and ~92%(~86%)of the globe will cross the 1.5 ℃(2.0 ℃) threshold under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Under RCP8.5, nearly the whole of North America, Europe + Russia, Africa, and Asia–Russia will cross the 1.5 ℃(2.0 ℃) threshold in ~2050(~2060), while the coverage rates over South America and Oceania are ~80%(~75%) and ~50%(~30%), respectively. The threshold-onset time(TOT) for 2 ℃ warming is earliest over Europe + Russia and North America, followed by Africa, Asia–Russia, South America, and finally Oceania under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The TOT for 1.5 ℃ is ~10–30 years ahead of that for 2.0 ℃. | di tian wenjie dong han zhang yan guo shili yang tanlong dai | 2017 | Science Bulletin2017，62，21： | 10 |
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