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| 1 | Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models显示文摘Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios. | CHEN HuoPo | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 66 |
| 2 | CMIP6模式对亚洲中高纬地区极端降水模拟性能评估显示文摘本文基于亚洲中高纬地区逐日降水观测资料和CMIP6中12个全球模式资料,采用泰勒图等方法,系统评估CMIP6模式对该地区极端降水的模拟能力,并与CMIP5结果进行对比。结果表明,相较于CMIP5模式,CMIP6模式能够更好地模拟极端降水指数气候平均态以及趋势变化特征,与观测相关系数更高。多模式集合平均在模拟极端降水方面普遍优于单个模式。为进一步评估单个模型的性能,与CMIP5中的旧版本模式进行了两两比较。尽管针对不同的模式和评估指标结果存在一些差异,但大多数新版本模式模拟极端降水能力较CMIP5有所增强。 | LIN Wenqing CHEN Huopo | 2020 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2020，13，6： | 8 |
| 3 | Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models显示文摘Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974- 2001 hindcasts obtained from the 'Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction' (DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June-October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction. | SUN JianQi CHEN HuoPo | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，32： | 6 |
| 4 | A Comparison of the Effects of Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Loss and ENSO on Winter Haze Days: Observational Analyses and AGCM Simulations显示文摘This study compares the impacts of interannual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO events on winter haze days in China's Mainland through observational analyses and AGCM sensitivity experiments. The results suggest that(1) Arctic sea ice loss favors an increase in haze days in central–eastern China;(2) the impact of ENSO is overall contained within southern China, with increased(reduced) haze days during La Ni?a(El Ni?o) winters; and(3) the impacts from sea ice loss and ENSO are linearly additive. Mechanistically, Arctic sea ice loss causes quasi-barotropic positive height anomalies over the region from northern Europe to the Ural Mountains(Urals in brief) and weak and negative height anomalies over the region from central Asia to northeastern Asia. The former favors intensified frequency of the blocking over the regions from northern Europe to the Urals, whereas the latter favors an even air pressure distribution over Siberia, Mongolia, and East Asia. This large-scale circulation pattern favors more frequent occurrence of calm and steady weather in northern China and, as a consequence, increased occurrence of haze days. In comparison,La Ni?a(El Ni?o) exerts its influence along a tropical pathway by inducing a cyclonic(anticyclonic) lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation response over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. The northeasterly(southwesterly)anomaly at the northwestern rear of the cyclone(anticyclone) causes reduced(intensified) rainfall over southeastern China, which favors increased(reduced) occurrence of haze days through the rain-washing effect. | Shuanglin LI Zhe HAN Huopo CHEN | 2017 | Journal of Meteorological Research2017，31，5： | 6 |
| 5 | The advanced South Asian monsoon onset accelerates lake expansion over the Tibetan Plateau显示文摘The rapid expansion of lake area in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has attracted a considerable amount of concern in recent decades.Limited evidence has suggested that climate warming and the cryosphere change are the most prominent contributors to lake expansion.The widespread changes in lake area result from a combination of increased precipitation,melting glaciers,permafrost degradation,and changes in other components of terrestrial water.However,debate remains as to whether melting glaciers or increased precipitation have a greater impact on lake expansion.Varied topography and limited datasets hinder the ability to perform extensive research,and there is currently no definitive conclusion on the issue. | Yong Liu Huopo Chen Guoqing Zhang Jianqi Sun Huijun Wang | 2019 | Science Bulletin2019，64，20： | 4 |
| 6 | Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes in China under global warming scenarios显示文摘极端降水(暴雨)是我国最为主要的自然灾害之一,每年均造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡。现有预估研究表明,未来全球持续增暖使得我国极端降水发生频次显著增加,强度增强。那么,未来极端降水增加会对社会,尤其是人们生活造成多大影响?围绕这个问题,本研究基于多个高分辨率区域气候模式模拟和人口数据,分析了未来我国极端降水人口暴露度的可能变化。结果指出,在RCP4.5-SSP2情景下,到了21世纪末,虽然预估的我国人口数量大幅减少,但极端降水人口暴露度却显著增加,相对当前气候增加了约21.6%,其中东部地区是增加最为显著的区域。进一步研究发现,人口暴露度的增加不依赖于情景的选择,但高排放情景增加幅度更大,而且增加主要是由于气候变化的贡献。 | CHEN Huopo SUN Jianqi | 2020 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2020，13，1： | 4 |
| 7 | Future changes in daily snowfall events over China based on CMIP6 models显示文摘近年来,中国部分地区频繁遭遇极端降雪事件袭击,造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡.因此,亟需深入理解中国地区极端降雪变化的物理机制及其未来演变趋势,为国家防灾减灾及气候变化应对措施制定提供科学依据.本文基于CMIP6模式结果,深入开展人类活动对中国地区降雪变化的影响及其未来演变趋势预估研究.观测显示,过去几十年在中国降雪频发区,其年降雪日数呈现减少趋势但强降雪日数增加;在这些变化中能够检测到人类活动的痕迹,尤其是温室气体排放的影响.对于冬季,全球变暖背景下中国北方地区降水日数明显增加,但北方地区仍为低温控制,这有利于降雪尤其是强降雪事件的发生;到了本世纪末,中国仍有约23%的区域(主要集中在北方地区)其冬季强降雪日数呈现增加趋势.此外,中国地区降雪季长度相比当前气候减少了约41天.因此,在未来持续变暖背景下,中国北方部分地区冬季将经历更多更为集中的强降雪事件. | Huopo Chen Jianqi Sun | 2022 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2022，15，5： | 1 |
| 8 | Climate control for southeastern China moisture and precipitation: Indian or East Asian monsoon?显示文摘 | Wang Huijun Chen Huopo | 2012 | EN2012，，12： | 1 |
| 9 | A statistical downscaling scheme to improve global precipitation forecasting显示文摘 | Jianqi Sun Huopo Chen | 2012 | Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics2012，，3： | 1 |
| 10 | Synergetic roadmap of carbon neutrality and clean air for China显示文摘It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on greenhouse gas reduction,air quality improvement,and improved health.In the context of carbon peak,carbon neutrality,and clean air policies,this perspective tracks and analyzes the process of the synergetic governance of air pollution and climate change in China by developing and monitoring 18 indicators.The 18 indicators cover the following five aspects:air pollution and associated weather-climate conditions,progress in structural transition,sources,inks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,health impacts and benefits of coordinated control,and synergetic governance system and practices.By tracking the progress in each indicator,this perspective presents the major accomplishment of coordinated control,identifies the emerging challenges toward the synergetic governance,and provides policy recommendations for designing a synergetic roadmap of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air for China. | Qiang Zhang Zhicong Yin Xi Lu Jicheng Gong Yu Lei Bofeng Cai Cilan Cai Qimin Chai Huopo Chen Hancheng Dai Zhanfeng Dong Guannan Geng Dabo Guan Jianlin Hu Cunrui Huang Jianing Kang Tiantian Li Wei Li Yongsheng Lin Jun Liu Xin Liu Zhu Liu Jinghui Ma Guofeng Shen Dan Tong Xuhui Wang Xuying Wang Zhili Wang Yang Xie Honglei Xu Tao Xue Bing Zhang Da Zhang Shaohui Zhang Shaojun Zhang Xian Zhang Bo Zheng Yixuan Zheng Tong Zhu Jinnan Wang Kebin He | 2023 | Environmental Science and Ecotechnology2023，，4： | 0 |
| 11 | Recent urbanization increases exposure to humid-heat extreme events over populated regions of China显示文摘目前对于高温的研究主要侧重于干热,针对湿热的研究相对较少,但它通常会造成更大的社会影响,尤其对人体健康的威胁.已有研究证实,当环境湿球温度超过35℃时,它会破坏人体正常生理代谢,进而威胁人体健康.本研究指出在过去四十年,中国区域日最高湿球温度几乎没有超过35℃,但部分地区日最高湿球温度超过了30℃,主要集中在中国的人口密集区,包括华东,华南和四川盆地等.进一步分析发现,中国区域近期的快速城市化加剧了极端湿热事件的社会影响,城市地区暴露于极端湿热事件的范围的增加速率明显大于其他地区,这也意味着快速城市化使得人口密集区暴露于极端湿热事件的风险明显增加.初步估算指出,自2000年以来,中国区域暴露于极端湿热事件的人口数以每年每天约3100人次的速率显著增加. | Huopo Chen Wenyue He Shuhui Zhang | 2024 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2024，17，2： | 0 |
| 12 | More extreme-heat occurrences related to humidity in China显示文摘极端日夜复合高温往往会造成更为严重的社会经济影响及健康风险,受到了广泛关注。本文基于ERA5逐小时资料,针对中国区域极端日夜复合湿热和高温事件的变化及其影响进行了比较分析.结果指出,中国区域夏季极端湿热和高温在空间分布上较为一致,强度高值区主要分布在南方地区,但高频中心主要出现在北方地区.两类事件发生频次在全国范围内均呈明显增加趋势,尤其在西部和北部地区.进一步研究表明,在中国大部分地区,湿度异常在极端湿热事件变化中有着十分重要的作用,部分区域甚至超过温度异常的影响。随着极端湿热事件的增加其影响也在加剧,自1961年以来中国暴露于极端湿热事件的人口数量和城市面积增速明显大于高温事件. | Wenyue He Huopo Chen | 2023 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2023，16，5： | 0 |
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