Warranty Claims Forecasting for New Products Sold with a Two-Dimensional Warranty

查看全文 作　　者：Anshu [1]Dai;Zhaomin [2]Zhang;Pengwen [1]Hou;Jingyi [1]Yue;Shuguang [3]He;Zhen [3]He

机构地区：[1]Co-Innovation Center for Computable Modeling in Management Science,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China;[2]College of Aeronautic Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;[3]College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》索引2019年第28卷第6期,共16页

基　　金：supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71802145,71902180,71872123,and 71801064,71532008. 摘　　要：Warranty claims forecasting plays an increasingly important role not only for preparing financial plans but also for optimizing warranty policy and improving after-sale services.In the case of new products,an important feature is that the new generation of products often has a close connection with the previous generations of products it replaces.Thus,the warranty claims data of the previous generations of products can be used for extracting reliability information of new products.In this context,we propose a warranty claims forecasting model considering usage rate for new products sold with a two-dimensional warranty.The accelerate failure time model is introduced to investigate the effect of usage rate on product degradation.The non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to model failure counts of repairable products and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate model parameters.The results of data experiments based on both simulation and real data collected from an automobile manufacturer in China show that the proposed model considering the varying usage rate outperforms the traditional models in forecasting the number of warranty claims. 关键词：NON-HOMOGENEOUS POISSON process new products TWO-DIMENSIONAL WARRANTY USAGE RATE WARRANTY data analysis

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Warranty Claims Forecasting for New Products Sold with a Two-Dimensional Warranty

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