Pandemic control-do's and don'ts from a control theory perspective

查看全文 作　　者：Latchezar [1]Tomov;Dimitrina [2]Miteva;Metodija [3,4,6]Sekulovski;Hristiana [4]Batselova;Tsvetelina [5]Velikova

机构地区：[1]Department of Informatics,New Bulgarian University,Sofia 1618,Bulgaria;[2]Department of Genetics,Sofia University'St.Kliment Ohridski',Sofia 1164,Bulgaria;[3]Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive care,University Hospital Lozenetz,Sofia 1407,Bulgaria;[4]Medical Faculty,Sofia University St.Kliment Ohridski,Sofia 1407,Bulgaria;[5]Department of Epidemiology and Disaster Medicine,Medical University,Plovdiv,University Hospital'St George',Plovdiv 6000,Bulgaria;[6]Department of Clinical Immunology,University Hospital Lozenetz,Sofia 1407,Bulgaria

出　　处：《World Journal of Methodology》索引2022年第12卷第5期,共10页

摘　　要：Managing a pandemic is a difficult task.Pandemics are part of the dynamics of nonlinear systems with multiple different interactive features that co-adapt to each other(such as humans,animals,and pathogens).The target of controlling such a nonlinear system is best achieved using the control system theory developed in engineering and applied in systems biology.But is this theory and its principles actually used in controlling the current coronavirus disease-19 pandemic?We review the evidence for applying principles in different aspects of pandemic control related to different goals such as disease eradication,disease containment,and short-or long-term economic loss minimization.Successful policies implement multiple measures in concordance with control theory to achieve a robust response.In contrast,unsuccessful policies have numerous failures in different measures or focus only on a single measure(only testing,vaccines,etc.).Successful approaches rely on predictions instead of reactions to compensate for the costs of time delay,on knowledge-based analysis instead of trial-and-error,to control complex nonlinear systems,and on risk assessment instead of waiting for more evidence.Iran is an example of the effects of delayed response due to waiting for evidence to arrive instead of a proper risk analytical approach.New Zealand,Australia,and China are examples of appropriate application of basic control theoretic principles and focusing on long-term adaptive strategies,updating measures with the evolution of the pandemic. 关键词：COVID-19 pandemic CONTROL Control theory COVID zero Flattening the curve

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Pandemic control-do's and don'ts from a control theory perspective

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