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您的检索式：作者名="Abram L.Wagner"
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| 1 | Impact of the national hepatitis B immunization program in China:a modeling study显示文摘Background:Elimination of hepatitis B virus(HBV)is a striking challenge for countries with high or moderate disease burden.Therefore,using China as a practical case to share experiences for similar countries may accelerate the achievement of the WHO 2030 target of 90%reduction in HBV-related incidence.We aim to evaluate the impact of national HBV immunization strategies in China;and the feasibility to achieve WHO 2030 targets under diferent scenarios.Methods:We constructed an expanded Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered(SEIR)model and decision treeMarkov model to estimate the epidemic of HBV in China,assess the feasibility of 2030 Elimination Goals through the projections and conduct the economic analysis.Least square method was used to calibrate the expanded SEIR model by yearly data of laboratory-confrmed HBV cases from 1990 to 2018.Two models were separately used to evaluate the impact and cost-efectiveness of HBV vaccine by comparing prevalence of chronic HBV infections,qualityadjusted life-years(QALYs),incremental cost efectiveness ratio and beneft–cost ratio(BCR)under various intervention options,providing a basis for exploring new containment strategies.Results:Between 1990 and 2020,the number of chronic HBV infections decreased by 33.9%.The current status quo would lead to 55.73 million infections(3.95%prevalence)in 2030,compared to 90.63 million(6.42%prevalence)of the“Without the NIP”scenario(NIP:National Immunization Program),114.78 million(8.13%prevalence)without any interventions.The prevention of mother to child transmission(PMTCT)strategy showed a net beneft as 12,283.50 dollars per person,with BCR as 12.66,which is higher than that of universal vaccination at 9.49.Compared with no screening and no vaccination,the PMTCT strategy could save 7726.03 dollars for each QALY increase.Conclusions:Our fndings proved the HBV vaccination has demonstrated a substantial positive impact on controlling the epidemic of HBV in terms of efectiveness and economy after about 30 years of implementation of the national hepatitis B immunization program which also provided containment experience for high or medium burden countries.As for China,the next step should focus on exploring strategies to improve diagnosis and treatment coverage to reduce the burden of HBV-related deaths and ultimately eliminate HBV. | Zhixi Liu Mengying Li David W.Hutton Abram L.Wagner Ye Yao Wenlong Zhu Lingsheng Cao Shenglan Tang Jinhua Pan Yesheng Wang Qi Zhao Hong Ren Ying Wang Weibing Wang | 2022 | Infectious Diseases of Poverty2022，11，5： | 0 |
| 2 | The impact of weather on summer and winter exercise behaviors显示文摘Background: Outdoor exercise is an enjoyable way for individuals to improve fitness, but it is dependent on weather conditions. This study examines the association between weather conditions and outdoor exercise after adjustment for age, sex, race, and socioeconomic status.Methods: We used data representative of American adults from the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters June 2013 surveys of consumers(core and supplement) to investigate self-reported exercise behavior in summer and winter. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression models estimated the odds of delayed or indoor exercise compared with outdoor exercise.Results: Of the 502 respondents, 16.3% did not regularly exercise outdoors(i.e., at least once a week), and many would delay exercise both in summer(51.8%) and winter(43.9%). Individuals listing rain as the predominant adverse weather condition had 3.33 times higher odds of exercising indoors(95% confidence interval(CI): 1.34-8.28) and 3.49 times higher odds of delaying exercise(95%CI: 1.69-7.21) compared with those mentioning heat as the predominant adverse condition. Individuals for whom ice or snow was an adverse winter weather condition were more likely to delay exercise(odds ratio(OR) = 3.34; 95%CI: 1.19-9.36), compared with those concerned with cold.Conclusion: This study found that race, age, and education exacerbate the negative effects of adverse weather conditions on the decision to exercise outdoors. Accordingly, any recommendation for an individual to exercise outdoors should be combined with an evaluation of the individual's outdoor environment along with strategies for the individual to continue exercising, indoors or outdoors, when adverse weather is present. | Abram L.Wagner Florian Keusch Ting Yan Philippa J.Clarke | 2019 | Journal of Sport and Health Science2019，8，1： | 0 |
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