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您的检索式：作者名="Rachel Mbogo"
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| 1 | SARS-COV-2 outbreak and control in Kenya - Mathematical model analysis显示文摘The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa.As reported by the World Health Organization,the outbreak of COVID-19 has spread across the world,killed many,collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported inWuhan,China,in the end of 2019.As at the end of December 2020,it had led to over 2.8 million confirmed cases in Africa with over 67 thousand deaths.The trend poses a huge threat to global public health.Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID-19 to estimate how transmission varies over time.The model is concise in structure,and successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak,and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number(R_(0))from the model to assess the factors driving the infection.The model illustrates the effect of mass testing on COVID-19 as well as individual self initiated behavioral change.The results have significant impact on the management of COVID-19 and implementation of prevention policies.The results from the model analysis shows that aggressive and effective mass testing as well as individual self initiated behaviour change play a big role in getting rid of the COVID-19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery. | Rachel Waema Mbogo Titus Okello Orwa | 2021 | Infectious Disease Modelling2021，6，1： | 0 |
| 2 | Optimal control analysis of hepatocytic-erythrocytic dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria显示文摘This paper presents an in-host malaria model subject to anti-malarial drug treatment and malaria vaccine antigens combinations.Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is applied to establish optimal control strategies against infected erythrocytes,infected hepatocytes and malaria parasites.Results from numerical simulation reveal that a combination of preerythrocytic vaccine antigen,blood schizontocide and gametocytocide drugs would offer the best strategy to eradicate clinical P.falciparum malaria.Sensitivity analysis,further reveal that the efficacy of blood schizontocides and blood stage vaccines are crucial in the control of clinical malaria infection.Futhermore,we found that an effective blood schizontocide should be used alongside efficacious blood stage vaccine for rapid eradication of infective malaria parasites.The authors hope that the results of this study will help accelerate malaria elimination efforts by combining malaria vaccines and anti-malarial drugs against the deadly P.falciparum malaria. | Titus Okello Orwa Rachel Waema Mbogo Livingstone Serwadda Luboobi | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，1： | 0 |
| 3 | Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using SEIR and ARIMA models显示文摘COVID-19,a coronavirus disease 2019,is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).The first case in Kenya was identified on March 13,2020,with the pandemic increasing to about 237,000 confirmed cases and 4,746 deaths by August 2021.We developed an SEIR model forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using an Autoregressive Integrated moving averages(ARIMA)model.The average time difference between the peaks of wave 1 to wave 4 was observed to be about 130 days.The 4th wave was observed to have had the least number of daily cases at the peak.According to the forecasts made for the next 60 days,the pandemic is expected to continue for a while.The 4th wave peaked on August 26,2021(498th day).By October 26,2021(60th day),the average number of daily infections will be 454 new cases and 40 severe cases,which would require hospitalization,and 16 critically ill cases requiring intensive care unit services.The findings of this study are key in developing informed mitigation strategies to ensure that the pandemic is contained and inform the preparedness of policymakers and health care workers. | Joyce Kiarie Samuel Mwalili Rachel Mbogo | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，2： | 0 |
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