2篇
您的检索式：作者名="Samuel Mwalili"
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| 1 | Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya显示文摘Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.Kenya reported its first case on March 13,2020 and by March 16,2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve.An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and burden.Contacts between different ages are incorporated via contact matrices.Simulation results show that 45%reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5e13%reduction of infections severity and deaths,while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8e22.7%reduction.The peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation,which happened a month after mitigations were relaxed.Low numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic cases.High numbers of cases are reported in the 15e29 years and 30e59 years age bands.Two mitigation periods,considered in the study,resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases,attack rates,hospital and ICU bed demands,as well as deaths,with the 190-days period giving higher reductions. | Mark Kimathi Samuel Mwalili Viona Ojiambo Duncan Kioi Gathungu | 2021 | Infectious Disease Modelling2021，6，1： | 1 |
| 2 | Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using SEIR and ARIMA models显示文摘COVID-19,a coronavirus disease 2019,is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).The first case in Kenya was identified on March 13,2020,with the pandemic increasing to about 237,000 confirmed cases and 4,746 deaths by August 2021.We developed an SEIR model forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using an Autoregressive Integrated moving averages(ARIMA)model.The average time difference between the peaks of wave 1 to wave 4 was observed to be about 130 days.The 4th wave was observed to have had the least number of daily cases at the peak.According to the forecasts made for the next 60 days,the pandemic is expected to continue for a while.The 4th wave peaked on August 26,2021(498th day).By October 26,2021(60th day),the average number of daily infections will be 454 new cases and 40 severe cases,which would require hospitalization,and 16 critically ill cases requiring intensive care unit services.The findings of this study are key in developing informed mitigation strategies to ensure that the pandemic is contained and inform the preparedness of policymakers and health care workers. | Joyce Kiarie Samuel Mwalili Rachel Mbogo | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，2： | 0 |
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