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| 1 | Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization:A case in Beijing metropolitan area显示文摘Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management;however,current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions.Consequently,policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research,which fails to allow for truly informed decisions.Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy.We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions.The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed.The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions.However,the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser.The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates. | ZHANG Jie ZHOU YinKang LI RenQiang ZHOU ZhaoJun ZHANG LiQuan SHI QingDong PAN XiaoLing | 2010 | Science China Earth Sciences2010，53，2： | 8 |
| 2 | Reconstructing Spatial Distribution of Historical Cropland in China′s Traditional Cultivated Region: Methods and Case Study显示文摘As an important part of land use/cover change(LUCC), historical LUCC in long time series attracts much more attention from scholars. Currently, based on the view of combining the overall control of cropland area and ′top-down′ decision-making behaviors, here are two global historical land-use datasets, generally referred as the Sustainability and the Global Environment datasets(SAGE datasets) and History Database of the Global Environment datasets(HYDE datasets). However, at the regional level, these global datasets have coarse resolutions and inevitable errors. Considering various factors that influenced cropland distribution, including cropland connectivity and the limitation of natural and human factors, this study developed a reconstruction model of historical cropland based on constrained Cellular Automaton(CA) of ′bottom-up′. Then, an available labor force index is used as a proxy for the amount of cropland to inspect and calibrate these spatial patterns. Applied the reconstruction model to Shandong Province, we reconstructed its spatial distribution of cropland during 8 periods. The reconstructed results show that: 1) it is properly suitable for constrained CA to simulate and reconstruct the spatial distribution of cropland in traditional cultivated region of China; 2) compared with ′SAGE datasets′ and ′HYDE datasets′, this study have formed higher-resolution Boolean spatial distribution datasets of historical cropland with a more definitive concept of spatial pattern in terms of fractional format. | YANG Xuhong GUO Beibei JIN Xiaobin LONG Ying ZHOU Yinkang | 2015 | Chinese Geographical Science2015，25，5： | 4 |
| 3 | Farmland dataset reconstruction and farmland change analysis in China during 1661-1985显示文摘This research reconstructs China's provincial farmland dataset in the last 300 years(1661–1985) by applying factor correction, citing replacement, linear interpolation, cohesion and contrast, man-land relationship test, farming trend test, provincial administrative area adjustment, etc. on available farmland data based on China's current provincial administrative boundary. Based on this dataset, a quantitative analysis has been applied to study the farmland amount and its change characteristics at both national and provincial level. Three conclusions are derived:(1) Along with the rapid population growth, national farmland amount has increased by about 320% in the last 300 years from 424,480 km2 in the early Qing Dynasty to 1,368,600 km2 in 1985. Comparing with global and national farmland datasets, in terms of the overall trend of national farmland growth, very low deviation exists but significant variances do appear for some provinces.(2) At the beginning of the Qing Dynasty, China's farming activities mainly existed in the Yangtze River Plain, the North China Plain, the Guanzhong Basin and the Yinchuan Plain. Thereafter, reclamation activities expanded to outer agricultural areas. Regarding of the growth rate, national farmland increase can be divided into five phases. National policy, disasters, wars, and economic development, are the main factors affecting farmland changes.(3) Significant regional variances exist in farmland changes. In the space shaped by the average farmland amount and the average annual change rate of farmland, the nation can be divided into six areas. | JIN Xiaobin CAO Xue DU Xindong YANG Xuhong BAI Qing ZHOU Yinkang | 2015 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2015，25，9： | 4 |
| 4 | Carbon emissions induced by farmland expansion in China during the past 300 years显示文摘Scientific assessment of the accounting over carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem in the process land use/land cover changes caused by human activities will help reduce the uncertainty in estimating carbon emissions from the terrestrial ecosystem. This study employs a bookkeeping model to estimate the carbon emissions from farmland reclamation in China during the past 300 years based on the annual rate of land use changes(derived from historical natural vegetation, farmland data), preset carbon density and coefficients of disturbance curves. We find out that:(1) there was a net increase of 79.30×10~4km^2 in national farmland; about 65% of reclaimed farmland had been forest land and 26% of that had been grass land previously;(2) the total amount of carbon emissions from farmland expansion in China had been between 2.94 and 5.61 Pg with the median 3.78 Pg during the past 300 years; specifically, carbon emissions of vegetation were 1.58 Pg while those of soil ranged from 1.35 Pg to4.03 Pg with the median 2.20 Pg;(3) carbon emissions vary greatly across various ecosystems: the emissions were most from forest land, and then grass land and swamps, and the least from shrubs; deserts functioned more likely to be carbon stock in the process of land reclamation;(4) along the time line, carbon emissions had decreased first and then increased while the peak emissions occurred in the first half of 20 th century; and spatially, carbon emissions were most released in Northeast and Southwest China; Northwest China was of the minimum carbon emissions. | Xuhong YANG Xiaobin JIN Xiaomin XIANG Yeting FAN Jing LIU Wei SHAN Yinkang ZHOU | 2019 | Science China Earth Sciences2019，62，2： | 2 |
| 5 | Quantitative estimation and spatial reconstruction of urban and rural construction land in Jiangsu Province, 1820-1985显示文摘Land cover is the most evident landscape signal to characterize the influence of human activities on terrestrial ecosystems.Since the industrial revolution,the expansion of construction land has profoundly changed the status of land use coverage and changes.This study is proposed to reconstruct the spatial pattern of construction land(urban construction land and rural settlement land)for five historical periods over the past 200 years in Jiangsu Province with 200 m′200 m grids on the basis of quantitative estimation.Urban construction land is estimated based on data about city walls,four gates along walls,and other socio-economic factors.Rural settlement land is calculated based on the rural population and per capita housing allowance.The spatial pattern of historical construction land is simulated based on the distribution of modern construction land in 1985 with a quantitative-boundarysuitability control method and thorough consideration over connectivity of different land use types.The study concludes that:(1)the amount of construction land in Jiangsu Province is estimated at 963.46 km^2 in 1820,1043.46 km^2 in 1911,1672.40 km^2 in 1936,1980.34 km^2 in1952 and 10,687.20 km^2 in 1985;and(2)the spatial distribution of construction land features the great proclivity to water bodies and main roads and the strong polarization of existent residence.The results are verified directly and indirectly by applying the trend verification of construction land changes and patterns,the correlation analysis between rural settlement land and local arable land,and quantitative accuracy test of the reconstructed construction land to actual historical survey maps covering four sample regions in 1936. | XIE Jinyuan JIN Xiaobin LIN Yinan CHENG Yinong YANG Xuhong BAI Qing ZHOU Yinkang | 2017 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2017，27，10： | 1 |
| 6 | Chaotic dynamics of the flood series in the Huaihe River Baisn for the last 500years 显示文摘 | ZHOU Yinkang MA Zhiyuan WANG Lachun | 2002 | Journal of Hydrology2002，258，14： | 1 |
| 7 | Exploring complex urban growth and land use efficiency in China's developed regions:implications for territorial spatial planning显示文摘Developed regions in China have experienced rapid urban expansion and have consequently induced a series of challenging environmental issues since its economic reform and opening-up.Taking Zhejiang as a case study area,the present paper explores the complex types of urban growth over the last four decades as well as land use efficiency.Moreover,it discusses the implications of the aforementioned on China national territorial spatial planning(TSP).The acquired results have shown that:1)urban expansion has slowed down,exhibiting a three-stage trend of'slight increase(1980-1990)—dramatic growth(1990-2010)—slow growth(after 2010)';2)the complex types of urban growth reveal that the urban diffusion has been gradually controlled and the urban form tends to be more condensed;and 3)the mean values for pure technical efficiency(PTE)and scale efficiency(SE)of urban land use are 0.83 and 0.95 respectively,indicating PTE as the main factor restricting the improvement of urban land use.Based on these results,some beneficial policy implications and suggestions for TSP are provided.First,it is suggested that'Inventory Planning'will be the main direction of TSP other than'Incremental Planning'.Secondly,we should pay more attention to the protection of cultivated land and ecological resources.Lastly,TSP should guide the economic growth away from simply relying on resource inputs and steer it toward technology and capital investment. | Xiaolu TANG Li SHENG Yinkang ZHOU | 2022 | Frontiers of Earth Science2022，16，4： | 0 |
| 8 | Analysis of spatio-temporal changes in forest biomass in China显示文摘Forests play a central role in the global carbon cycle.China's forests have a high carbon sequestration potential owing to their wide distribution,young age and relatively low carbon density.Forest biomass is an essential variable for assessing carbon sequestration capacity,thus determining the spatio-temporal changes of forest biomass is critical to the national carbon budget and to contribute to sustainable forest management.Based on Chinese forest inventory data(1999–2013),this study explored spatial patterns of forest biomass at a grid resolution of 1 km by applying a downscaling method and further analyzed spatiotemporal changes of biomass at different spatial scales.The main findings are:(1)the regression relationship between forest biomass and the associated infuencing factors at a provincial scale can be applied to estimate biomass at a pixel scale by employing a downscaling method;(2)forest biomass had a distinct spatial pattern with the greatest biomass occurring in the major mountain ranges;(3)forest biomass changes had a notable spatial distribution pattern;increase(i.e.,carbon sinks)occurred in east and southeast China,decreases(i.e.,carbon sources)were observed in the northeast to southwest,with the largest biomass losses in the Hengduan Mountains,Southern Hainan and Northern Da Hinggan Mountains;and,(4)forest vegetation functioned as a carbon sink during 1999–2013 with a net increase in biomass of 3.71 Pg. | Weiyi Xu Xiaobin Jin Jing Liu Xuhong Yang Jie Ren Yinkang Zhou | 2022 | Journal of Forestry Research2022，33，1： | 0 |
| 9 | ON BIO-EFFECTS ON KARST LANDSCAPE IN JIUZHAIGOU CONSERVATION, SICHUAN PROVINCE, CHINA—WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO A MICROMORPHOLOFICAL APPROACH显示文摘Jiuzhaigou Conservation is a typical karst region with scenic tufa constructive landscape. With observation in situ and optical microscope as well as scanning electronic microscope, a series minor and micro biokarst solution features and related agents were identified and described related to local environmental condition, and also the bioeffect on karst deposition in formation of the local tufa dammed lakes were elucidated and discussed.It is shown in the cycle model proposed in the paper that many organisms (algae,mosses,and bushes etc.) with various effects (assimilation,interception,encrustation,trapping and binding etc.)on tufa deposition play an important role throughout the compound cycle process of the tufa dam gradation,i.e.the formation of the tufa dammed lakes in the stream channels which are character of local karst landscape. | Zhang Jie Li Shengfeng Zhou Yinkang Du Jinkang Department of Geography, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 People’s Republic of China | 1997 | Journal of Geographical Sciences1997，7，3： | 0 |
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