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| 1 | Genesis of the 2014–2016 El Nio events显示文摘The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Nio had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts(WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Nio, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Nio events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Nio events, the 2015/2016 El Nio exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Nio to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Nio. | LIAN Tao CHEN DaKe TANG YouMin | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，9： | 9 |
| 2 | Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study显示文摘ENSO is the strongest interannual signal in the global climate system with worldwide climatic, ecological and societal impacts. Over the past decades, the research about ENSO prediction and predictability has attracted broad attention. With the development of coupled models, the improvement in initialization schemes and the progress in theoretical studies, ENSO has become the most predictable climate mode at the time scales from months to seasons. This paper reviews in detail the progress in ENSO predictions and predictability studies achieved in recent years. An emphasis is placed on two fundamental issues: the improvement in practical prediction skills and progress in the theoretical study of the intrinsic predictability limit. The former includes progress in the couple models, data assimilations, ensemble predictions and so on, and the latter focuses on efforts in the study of the optimal error growth and in the estimate of the intrinsic predictability limit. | Youmin Tang Rong-Hua Zhang Ting Liu Wansuo Duan Dejian Yang Fei Zheng Hongli Ren Tao Lian Chuan Gao Dake Chen Mu Mu | 2018 | National Science Review2018，5，6： | 8 |
| 3 | A theoretical investigation of the tropical Indo-Pacific tripole mode显示文摘The El Ni o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific has been a focus of ocean and climate studies in the last few decades.Recently,the short-term climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean has attracted increasingly more attention,especially with the proposition of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)mode.However,these phenomena are often studied separately without much consideration of their interaction.Observations reveal a striking out-of-phase relationship between zonal gradients of sea surface height anomaly(SSHA)and sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans.Since the two oceans share the ascending branch of the Walker cells over the warm pool,the variation within one of them will affect the other.The accompanied zonal surface wind anomalies are always opposite over the two basins,thus producing a tripole structure with opposite zonal gradients of SSHA/SSTA in the two oceans.This mode of variability has been referred to as Indo-Pacific Tripole(IPT).Based on observational data analyses and a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model,this study tries to identify the characteristics and physical mechanism of IPT with a particular emphasis on the relationships among ENSO,IOD,and IPT.The model includes the basic oceanic and atmospheric variables and the feedbacks between them,and takes into account the inter-basin connection through an atmospheric bridge,thus providing a valuable framework for further research on the short-term tropical climate variability. | LIAN Tao CHEN DaKe TANG YouMin JIN BaoGang | 2014 | Science China Earth Sciences2014，57，1： | 7 |
| 4 | New health-state assessment model based on belief rule base with interpretability显示文摘Health-state assessment is the foundation of optimal-maintenance decision-making for complex systems to maintain reliability and safety.Generating the assessment results in a convincing and interpretable way to avoid potential risks is of great importance.Belief rule base(BRB)as an interpretable model performs well in health-state assessment.However,the interpretability of a BRB-based model may be lost during the optimization process,which is expressed mainly as three problems:expert knowledge is not effectively used in the optimization process;the optimized rules of BRB may be in conflict with real systems;and some parameters get over-optimized,which may affect experts’initial judgment.Three concepts—“searching intensity”,“interpretability constraint of belief distribution”,and“rule-activation factor”—are defined to address these problems.Using these concepts,we propose a new health-state assessment model based on the interpretable BRB and a new optimization method to improve the accuracy and preserve the interpretability of the new model.To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model,we conducted an aero-engine case study. | Zhijie ZHOU You CAO Guanyu HU Youmin ZHANG Shuaiwen TANG Yuan CHEN | 2021 | Science China(Information Sciences)2021，64，7： | 6 |
| 5 | On the “spring predictability barrier” for strong El Nio events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system显示文摘Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the 'spring predictability barrier'(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure, which cause a significant SPB and yield a much larger prediction error. These results suggest that the forecast skill of the ICM EPS for strong El Nio events could be greatly enhanced by using the NFSV-like tendency error to correct the model. | QI QianQian DUAN WanSuo ZHENG Fei TANG YouMin | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，9： | 5 |
| 6 | 热带印度洋-太平洋三极模态的理论探讨显示文摘热带太平洋的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)现象是过去几十年里海洋与气候研究的重点.随着近年来印度洋偶极子模态(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)的提出,热带印度洋中的短期气候变化也逐步被重视.然而,人们对这些现象的研究更多的是局限在单个的海盆之内,而不是将其作为一个整体来思考.观测表明,在年际间尺度上,热带印度洋和热带太平洋的海表温度异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和海表高度异常(Sea Surface Height Anomaly,SSHA)等物理量的有着很明显的反向变化趋势.对这种反向变化可以给出一个简单的解释:由于双圈沃克环流在暖池区幅聚上升,海表风场在热带印度洋为西风,在热带太平洋为东风;它们通过驱动海水的上翻使得热带西印度洋与东太平洋SSTA变冷,SSHA变低,同时也通过暖水的堆积使得暖池区SSTA升高,SSHA增加.这样就在整个热带印度洋-太平洋地区形成了一个SSTA和SSHA的三极子结构.随着热带印度洋-太平洋上空沃克环流圈的增强或减弱,两个海洋之间的反向梯度关系也会随之做相应的调整,并通过梯度与沃克环流之间的正反馈作用得以维持.这一振荡模态被称为印-太三极子(Indo-Pacific Tripole,IPT).本文将通过资料分析和一个简单的概念模型来讨论IPT模态的发展和变化机制,并着重考虑ENSO与IOD对IPT模态的影响.该模型包含了最基本的海洋与大气的物理变量和他们之间的相互作用,可以为更深层次地理解和研究热带地区短期气候变化提供重要参考. | 连涛 陈大可 YouMin TANG 金宝刚 | 2014 | 中国科学:地球科学2014，44，1： | 4 |
| 7 | The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions:Retrospect and prospects显示文摘This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit(IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed.The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed. | MU Mu DUAN WanSuo TANG YouMin | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，11： | 4 |
| 8 | A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China显示文摘El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions. | ZHANG Rong-Hua YU Yongqiang SONG Zhenya REN Hong-Li TANG Youmin QIAO Fangli WU Tongwen GAO Chuan HU Junya TIAN Feng ZHU Yuchao CHEN Lin LIU Hailong LIN Pengfei WU Fanghua WANG Lin | 2020 | Journal of Oceanology and Limnology2020，38，4： | 4 |
| 9 | Comparison and combination of EAKF and SIR-PF in the Bayesian filter framework显示文摘Bayesian estimation theory provides a general approach for the state estimate of linear or nonlinear and Gaussian or non-Gaussian systems. In this study, we first explore two Bayesian-based methods: ensemble adjustment Kalman filter(EAKF) and sequential importance resampling particle filter(SIR-PF), using a well-known nonlinear and non-Gaussian model(Lorenz '63 model). The EAKF, which is a deterministic scheme of the ensemble Kalman filter(En KF), performs better than the classical(stochastic) En KF in a general framework. Comparison between the SIR-PF and the EAKF reveals that the former outperforms the latter if ensemble size is so large that can avoid the filter degeneracy, and vice versa. The impact of the probability density functions and effective ensemble sizes on assimilation performances are also explored. On the basis of comparisons between the SIR-PF and the EAKF, a mixture filter, called ensemble adjustment Kalman particle filter(EAKPF), is proposed to combine their both merits. Similar to the ensemble Kalman particle filter, which combines the stochastic En KF and SIR-PF analysis schemes with a tuning parameter, the new mixture filter essentially provides a continuous interpolation between the EAKF and SIR-PF. The same Lorenz '63 model is used as a testbed, showing that the EAKPF is able to overcome filter degeneracy while maintaining the non-Gaussian nature, and performs better than the EAKF given limited ensemble size. | SHEN Zheqi ZHANG Xiangming TANG Youmin | 2016 | Acta Oceanologica Sinica2016，35，3： | 3 |
| 10 | Frequency-specified EOF analysis and its application to Pacific decadal oscillation显示文摘A frequency-specified empirical orthogonal function(FSEOF)analysis is proposed in this study.The aim of FSEOF is to specify a prescribed-band of frequency in leading principal components with less information losing at the ends of the data,thus well characterizing the signals of interest.The FSEOF can well capture prescribed variability in leading modes,and has intrinsic merits in resolving frequency-related modes,especially those associated with low frequency oscillations.An application of the FSEOF to the tropical and northern Pacific sea surface temperature shows that this new method can successfully separate Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)mode from the El Nino-Southern oscillation mode,and clearly detect all regime shifts of PDO in the past centurv. | LIAN Tao TANG YouMin | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，2： | 2 |
| 11 | Nonlinear Measurement Function in the Ensemble Kalman Filter显示文摘The optimal Kalman gain was analyzed in a rigorous statistical framework. Emphasis was placed on a comprehensive understanding and interpretation of the current algorithm, especially when the measurement function is nonlinear. It is argued that when the measurement function is nonlinear, the current ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm seems to contain implicit assumptions: the forecast of the measurement function is unbiased or the nonlinear measurement function is linearized.While the forecast of the model state is assumed to be unbiased, the two assumptions are actually equivalent.On the above basis, we present two modified Kalman gain algorithms. Compared to the current Kalman gain algorithm,the modified ones remove the above assumptions, thereby leading to smaller estimated errors. This outcome was confirmed experimentally, in which we used the simple Lorenz 3-component model as the test-bed. It was found that in such a simple nonlinear dynamical system, the modified Kalman gain can perform better than the current one. However, the application of the modified schemes to realistic models involving nonlinear measurement functions needs to be further investigated. | Youmin TANG Jaison AMBANDAN Dake CHEN | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，3： | 2 |
| 12 | Multiplex Multi-core Pattem of Network Organization: An Exploratory Study 显示文摘 | Youmin Xi and Fangcheng Tang | 2004 | Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory2004，10，2： | 1 |
| 13 | Multiplex Multi-core Pattern of Network Orga-nizations :An Exploratory Study 显示文摘 | YOUMIN Xi FANGCHENG Tang | 2004 | Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory2004，10，2： | 1 |
| 14 | An intermediate coupled model for the tropical ocean-atmosphere system显示文摘An intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model is developed to simulate and predict the tropical interannual variability. Originating from the basic physical framework of the Zebiak-Cane(ZC) model, this tropical intermediate couple model(TICM) extends to the entire global tropics, with a surface heat flux parameterization and a surface wind bias correction added to improve model performance and inter-basin connections. The model well reproduces the variabilities in the tropical Pacific and Indian basins. The simulated El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) shows a period of 3–4 years and an amplitude of about 2°C, similar to those observed. The variabilities in the Indian Ocean, including the Indian Ocean basin mode(IOBM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), are also reasonably captured with a realistic relationship to the Pacific. However, the tropical Atlantic variability in the TICM has a westward bias and is overly influenced by the tropical Pacific. A 47-year hindcast experiment using the TICM for the period of 1970–2016 indicates that ENSO is the most predictable mode in the tropics. Skillful predictions of ENSO can be made one year ahead, similar to the skill of the latest version of the ZC model, while a 'spring predictability barrier' still exists as in other models. In the tropical Indian Ocean, the predictability seems much higher in the west than in the east. The correlation skill of IOD prediction reaches 0.5 at a 5-month lead, which is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. The prediction of IOD shows a significant 'winter-spring predictability barrier', implying combined influences from the tropical Pacific and the local sea-air interaction in the eastern Indian Ocean. The TICM has little predictive skill in the equatorial Atlantic for lead times longer than 3 months, which is a common problem of current climate models badly in need of further investigation. | Xunshu SONG Dake CHEN Youmin TANG Ting LIU | 2018 | Science China Earth Sciences2018，61，12： | 1 |
| 15 | Multiplex Multi- core Pat- tern of Network Organization: An Exploratory Study 显示文摘 | Youmin Xi Fangcheng Tang | 2004 | Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory2004，10，2： | 1 |
| 16 | Assimilation of argo temperature and salinity profiles using a bias-aware localized EnKF system for the Pacific Ocean显示文摘 | Deng Ziwang Tang Youmin Wang Guihua | 2010 | Ocean Modelling2010，35，3： | 1 |
| 17 | Multiplex multi-core pattern of network organizations:An exploratory study显示文摘 | Youmin Xi Fangcheng Tang | 2004 | Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory Journal2004，10，： | 1 |
| 18 | Estimating the Effect of Organizational Structure on Knowledge Transfer: A Neural Network Approach 显示文摘 | Tang Fangcheng Xi Youmin Ma Jun | 2006 | Expert Systems with Applications2006，30，4： | 1 |
| 19 | Estimating the Effect of Organizational Structure on Knowledge Transfer: A Neural Network Approach 显示文摘 | Fangcheng Tang Youmin Xi Jun Ma | 2006 | Expert Systems with Applications2006，30，： | 1 |
| 20 | Induction of Pluripotency in Mouse Somatic Cells with Lineage Specifiers显示文摘 | Jian Shu Chen Wu Yetao Wu Zhiyuan Li Sida Shao Wenhui Zhao Xing Tang Huan Yang Lijun Shen Xiaohan Zuo Weifeng Yang Yan Shi Xiaochun Chi Hongquan Zhang Ge Gao Youmin Shu Kehu Yuan Weiwu He Chao Tang Yang Zhao Hongkui Deng | 2013 | Cell2013，，5： | 1 |
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