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| 1 | Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century显示文摘The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century. | JI JinJun HUANG Mei LI KeRang | 2008 | Science China Earth Sciences2008，51，6： | 48 |
| 2 | Prediction of permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the next 50 and 100 years显示文摘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 reported that the Earth air temperature would rise by 1.4-5.8℃ and 2.5℃ on average by the year 2100. China re-gional climate model results also showed that the air temperature on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) would increase by 2.2-2.6℃ in the next 50 years. A numerical permafrost model was developed to predict the changes of permafrost distribution on the QTP over the next 50 and 100 years under the two climatic warming scenarios, i.e. 0.02℃/a, the lower value of IPCC’s estima-tion, and 0.052℃/a, the higher value predicted by Qin et al. Simulation results show that ( i ) in the case of 0.02℃/a air-temperature rise, permafrost area on the QTP will shrink about 8.8% in the next 50 years, and high temperature permafrost with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) higher than ?0.11℃ may turn into seasonal frozen soils. In the next 100 years, perma-frost with MAGT higher than ?0.5℃ will disappear and the permafrost area will shrink up to 13.4%. (ii) In the case of 0.052℃/a air-temperature rise, permafrost area on the QTP will reduce about 13.5% after 50 years. More remarkable degradation will take place after 100 years, and permafrost area will reduce about 46%. Permafrost with MAGT higher than ?2℃ will turn into seasonal frozen soils and even unfrozen soils. | NAN Zhuotong LI Shuxun CHENG Guodong | 2005 | Science China Earth Sciences2005，48，6： | 40 |
| 3 | Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector:Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism显示文摘The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference,Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios,and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength.The conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2,which implies an increment of 0.5e1.3 billion or 14%e35%from the 2015 levels.(2)Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage applications(CCUS).The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price.When the carbon price attains to CN￥150 t1CO2,the CO2 emission can decrease by 36%than that without carbon price.(3)CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector.Generally speaking,the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation,but once the carbon price reaches up to CN￥106 t 1CO2,the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase.When carbon price increases to CN￥150 t1CO2 in 2050,the application of CCUS will account for 44%of total emission reduction.(4)In the scenario with carbon price of CN￥150 t1CO2,power sector would be decarbonized significantly,and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2(kW h)1,but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission.In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement,more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector.Based on the above scenario analysis,the study proposes four recommendations on the low-carbon development of China's power sector:(1)improve the energy efficiency proactively and optimize the energy structure of power sector gradually;(2)promote the low-carbon transition of power sector by using market-based mechanism like carbon emission trading scheme to internalize the external cost of carbon emission;(3)give more emphasis on and support to the CCUS application in power sector. | LIU Qiang ZHENG Xiao-Qi ZHAO Xu-Chen CHEN Yi Oleg LUGOVOY | 2018 | Advances in Climate Change Research2018，9，1： | 11 |
| 4 | 随机环境中的生产作业计划问题显示文摘生产系统中通常会涉及各种不确定因素 ,如不确定的顾客定单、不确定的生产作业时间等 .在当今时间竞争非常激烈的时代中 ,生产型企业如何把握生产系统中的这些不定因素变得尤为关键 .本文研究在不确定的作业时间、工序间延迟时间等情况下的生产作业计划问题 ,利用 scenario模型把这类随机生产计划问题归纳为一个多阶段随机决策问题 .进而 ,采用Lagrangian松弛和 scenario分解的方法求解这样一个大型的决策问题 .最后 ,就一个实例建立模型、进行计算和分析 。 | 朱道立 武芳 龚国华 | 2001 | 管理科学学报2001，4，5： | 10 |
| 5 | When will China achieve its carbon emission peak?显示文摘Global warming is primarily attributed to the significant increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration,which is caused mainly by carbon emissions generated from fossil fuel combustion[1].Efficient measures are required to control these emissions and reduce global warming. | Tianli Zheng Jiangling Zhu Shaopeng Wang Jingyun Fang | 2016 | National Science Review2016，3，1： | 9 |
| 6 | Scenario analysis on the global carbon emissions reduction goal proposed in the declaration of the 2009 G8 Summit显示文摘A goal of a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gases emissions by 2050, with an 80% reduction by developed countries (hereafter referred to as the G8 Goal), was proposed at the G8 Summit held in L’Aquila, Italy, in July 2009. Here we analyze the scientific and political implications of the G8 Goal and its equity and feasibility by examining four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our results show that (1) the goal to keep atmospheric CO2 concentration of <450 ppmv, stated by G8 nations, can only be achieved under the scenario of a steady, linear emissions reduction by all countries and simultaneously meeting the G8 Goal during the period 2005-2050; (2) under the G8 Goal, the carbon emissions quota for developing countries would not meet their carbon emission demands even if very strict reduction regimes are followed, with a gap of up to >1/3 of emissions demand in the next 45 years; and (3) under the G8 Goal, the cumulative per capita emissions during the period of 2006-2050 for developed and developing countries will be 81 t C and 40-47 t C, respectively, with the former doubling that of the latter, implying that the historical disparity of carbon emissions between developed and developing countries would be widened. Historically, the cumulative per capita emissions from developed countries are 12 times of those from developing countries. We therefore conclude that (1) the G8 Goal seeks to impose binding reduction targets on developing countries that will impede their industrialization process and cause conflicts among developing countries in the allocation of carbon emission rights; (2) the G8 Goal will not only widen the existing disparities of historical carbon emissions between developed and developing countries, but also generate new inequalities in the rights of carbon emissions; and (3) the 450 ppmv threshold of atmospheric CO2 concentration control, which is the basis for the G8 Goal, is impractical and impossible, and should not be accepted as the foundation for international climate negotiation on carbon emission reduction. In summary, the G8 Goal is clearly against the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' and thus is unacceptable for developing countries. | FANG JingYun WANG ShaoPeng YUE Chao ZHU JiangLing GUO ZhaoDi HE CanFei TANG ZhiYao | 2009 | Science China Earth Sciences2009，52，11： | 8 |
| 7 | 随机能力规划的Scenario模型及其决策风险分析显示文摘为研究随机环境下的生产能力扩张问题,采用Scenario方法,建立了市场需求量和产品价格为随机变量的多计划期能力规划决策模型.其中考虑了两种情况:一是能力投资方案不随市场需求的随机实现而变化的预报型模型,二是投资方案可以跟踪市场需求随机实现的适应型模型.算例研究比较了这两种模型的决策效果.进一步,使用下方风险分析,探讨了随机能力扩张的投资决策风险,建立了考虑期望收益风险的预报型能力规划决策模型.该模型在随机规划中加入了一个期望下方风险约束,以反映决策者的风险偏好,基于算例讨论了考虑风险和不考虑风险时的决策差异. | 张人千 王如平 | 2009 | 系统工程理论与实践2009，29，1： | 7 |
| 8 | Effect of species composition on ecosystem services in European boreal forest显示文摘Forest management in several boreal countries is strongly focused on conifers because they are more productive,the technical quality of their stems is better,and their wood fibers are longer as compared to broadleaves.Favoring conifers in forest management leads to simple forest structures with low resilience and diversity.Such forests are risky in the face of climate change and fluctuating timber prices.Climate change increases the vitality of many forest pests and pathogens such as Heterobasidion spp.and Ips typographus L.which attack mainly spruce.Wind damages are also increasing because of a shorter period of frozen soil to provide a firm anchorage against storms.Wind-thrown trees serve as starting points for bark beetle outbreaks.Increasing the proportion of broadleaved species might alleviate some of these problems.This study predicts the long-term(150 years) consequences of current conifer-oriented forest management in two forest areas,and compared this management with silvicultural strategies that promote mixed forests and broadleaved species.The results show that,in the absence of damages,conifer-oriented forestry would lead to 5–10% higher timber yields and carbon sequestration.The somewhat lower carbon sequestration of broadleaved forests was counteracted by their higher albedo(reflectance).Mixed and broadleafforests were better providers of recreational amenities.Species diversity was much higher in mixed stand and broadleaf-oriented silviculture at stand and forest levels.The analysis indicates that conifer-oriented forest management produces rather small and uncertain economic benefits at a high cost in resilience and diversity. | Timo Pukkala | 2018 | Journal of Forestry Research2018，29，2： | 6 |
| 9 | Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method显示文摘Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China's natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas. | Xian-Zhong Mu Guo-Hao Li Guang-Wen Hu | 2018 | Petroleum Science2018，15，4： | 5 |
| 10 | Effect analysis of carbon trading on Economy-Energy-Environment system and calculation of reasonable carbon price intervals显示文摘This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research. | Rui Sun Dan Kuang Dongqin Chang | 2015 | Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment2015，13，2： | 5 |
| 11 | China's pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence显示文摘China achieved the reduction of CO2 intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the '13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),' with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO2 intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO2 intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO2 intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China's CO2 intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%-54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%-25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO2 intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China's CO2 intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO2 emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction. | Hailin WANG Jiankun HE | 2019 | Frontiers in Energy2019，13，3： | 4 |
| 12 | Implications of Klotho in vascular health and disease显示文摘Cardiovascular disease(CVD) is a prevalent condition in general population and the first cause of death overall. Klotho, a pleiotropic protein related to longevity that acts as a co-receptor of the fibroblast growth factor 23, has been proposed as a key regulator of the development of CVD. In the few clinical studies made, it has been observed a relationship between low levels of soluble Klotho and the occurrence and severity of CVD, as well as a reduction of cardiovascular risk when they are high. Also, different polymorphisms of human Klotho gene have been related to the incidence of cardiovascular events. Moreover, several experimental studies indicate that this protein acts in the maintenance of vascular homeostasis. Klotho improves endothelial dysfunction through promotion of NO production and mediates antiinflammatory and anti-aging effects such as suppression of adhesion molecules expression, attenuation of nuclear factor-kappa B or inhibition of Wnt signaling. Furthermore,this protein is related to the attenuation of vascular calcification as well as prevention of cardiac hypertrophy. The expression of this protein in the vascular wall implies a new scenario for the treatment of vascular disorders. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the relationship between the Klotho protein and CVD, in addition to its role in the maintenance of functional vascular integrity. | Ernesto Martín-Núez Javier Donate-Correa Mercedes Muros-de-Fuentes Carmen Mora-Fernández Juan F Navarro-González | 2014 | World Journal of Cardiology2014，6，12： | 4 |
| 13 | Impact of energy structure adjustment on air quality:a case study in Beijing,China显示文摘Energy consumption is a major cause of air pollution in Beijing,and the adjustment of the energy structure is of strategic importance to the reduction of carbon intensity and the improvement of air quality.In this paper,we explored the future trend of energy structure adjustment in Beijing till 2020,designed five energy scenarios focusing on the fuel substitution in power plants and heating sectors,established emission inventories,and utilized the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5(MM5)and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model(CMAQ)to evaluate the impact of these measures on air quality.By implementing this systematic energy structure adjustment,the emissions of PM_(10),PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(x),and non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOCs)will decrease distinctly by 34.0%,53.2%,78.3%,47.0%,and 30.6%respectively in the most coalintensive scenario of 2020 compared with 2005.Correspondingly,MM5-Models-3/CMAQ simulations indicate significant reduction in the concentrations of major pollutants,implying that energy structure adjustment can play an important role in improving Beijing’s air quality.By fuel substitution for power plants and heating boilers,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(x),and NMVOCs will be reduced further,but slightly by 1.7%,4.5%,11.4%,13.5%,and 8.8%respectively in the least coal-intensive scenario.The air quality impacts of different scenarios in 2020 resemble each other,indicating that the potential of air quality improvement due to structure adjustment in power plants and heating sectors is limited.However,the CO_(2) emission is 10.0%lower in the least coal-intensive scenario than in the most coal-intensive one,contributing to Beijing’s ambition to build a low carbon city.Except for energy structure adjustment,it is necessary to take further measures to ensure the attainment of air quality standards. | Bin ZHAO Jiayu XU Jiming HAO | 2011 | Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering2011，5，3： | 4 |
| 14 | 青藏高原维管植物物种丰富度分布的情景模拟(英文)显示文摘For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance(VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the vascular plant type, land cover, mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, topographic relief, patch connectivity and ecological diversity index were selected to screen the best correlation equation between the VPSA and habitat factors on the basis of 37 national nature reserves on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results show that the coefficient of determination between VPSA and habitat factors is 0.94, and the mean error is 2.21 types per km^2. The distribution of VPSA gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and reduces with increasing altitude except the desert area of Qaidam Basin. Furthermore, the scenarios of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the periods from 1981 to 2010(T0),from 2011 to 2040(T2), from 2041 to 2070(T3) and from 2071 to 2100(T4) were simulated by combining the land cover change and the climatic scenarios of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulated results show that the VPSA would generally decrease on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from T0 to T4. The VPSA has the largest change ratio under RCP8.5 scenario, and the smallest change ratio under RCP2.6 scenario. In general, the dynamic change of habitat factors would directly affect the spatial distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the future. | 范泽孟 白茹玉 岳天祥 | 2019 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2019，29，10： | 4 |
| 15 | Multi-hazard disaster scenario method and emergency management for urban resilience by integrating experiment-simulation-field data显示文摘Due to the frequent occurrence of multi-hazard disasters worldwide in recent years,effective multi-hazard sce-nario analysis is imperative for disaster rescue and emergency management.The response procedure for different single hazards were investigated and formulated before.However,the investigations of disaster scenario rarely systematically address the entire development and response process of multi-hazards,including the coupling mechanisms,evolution dynamics,scenario assessment and emergency response.To this end,this paper presents our methodology of multi-hazard disaster scenario that integrates experiment-simulation-field data,focusing on three dimensions consisting of multi-hazard coupling,structures and systems,and emergency management.The newly proposed scenario method mainly comprises three aspects:experiments and simulations,multi-hazard field investigation,scenario analysis and response.Specifically,in order to study the large-scale,high-intensity and multi-hazard coupling effects,we carried out reduced-scale experiments and field measurement experiments to develop experimental similarity theory and prototype simulations of multi-hazards.In addition,a variety of field rescue and survey equipment,such as robots,Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV),and Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality(VR/AR)technologies were utilized to acquire real-time data of multi-hazard field.Furthermore,we also examine the mechanism and framework of multi-hazard scenarios to formulate the detailed procedures of man-agement and response.They are incorporated with the experiments,simulations,field data and models to con-struct a new scenario platform.The proposed scenario method was applied in a case study of the coupled wind and snow multi-hazard to verify its effectiveness.The new method contributes to the disaster relief,decision-making and emergency management for multi-hazard disaster to improve the urban resilience. | Rui Ba Qing Deng Yi Liu Rui Yang Hui Zhang | 2021 | Journal of Safety Science and Resilience2021，2，2： | 3 |
| 16 | Scenario analysis for the energy demand and carbon emissions in low carbon city显示文摘This paper takes the climate change and low carbon economy development as the study background, based on the analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions status, which is aimed to provide the low carbon development path in Chinese cities. The method of scenario analysis can be used to predict long-term strategy for the uncertainty future development, and it was introduced to the field of social forecasting and public policy research, such as the environmental strategic planning, policy analysis, and support of decision in resource management, which can be used to explore the possible development trend and target of the results from the macro perspective. Scenario analysis has been gradually applied to the study area on low carbon economy, energy forecasting and other fields in recent years, and there have been many research results in different aspects. This paper takes the scenario analysis as basic study theory, spreading out the present situation of its application in low carbon city and some issues that need further study. As a tool for predicting the future development in low carbon city, the method of scenario analysis has been providing a powerful reference for policies and their executants. | ZHU Jing LIU Xue-min PANG Wei-hong | 2015 | Ecological Economy2015，8，2： | 3 |
| 17 | Coupled model constructed to simulate the landslide dam flood discharge:a case study of Baige landslide dam,Jinsha River显示文摘Landslide dam,always triggered by the strong earthquake and heavy rain,is a common natural disaster around the world.In this study,a coupled model was built by combining DB-IWHR model and the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate the landslide dam flood discharge.We mapped the maximum Baige landslide dam flood inundated area based on Gaofen-1 imagery,and then simulated the process of Baige landslide dam flood discharge using this coupled model.It was proved that,with 80.05%F values,the coupled model was suitable to simulate the process of landslide dam flood discharge.Lastly,multiple scenarios were simulated respectively by setting varying width and depth of spillway.The results of scenarios 1-4 indicated that spillway width presented low sensibility to the peak flow in spillway and the time of its arrival,and similarly to the water depth at river cross-section and the inundated area.Water depth at river cross-section and the inundated area decreased as spillway width increased.Even if spillway width varied at 10 m interval,the average variation of water depth was less than 1.82 m and the variation of inundated area was less than 2.85%.However,the results of scenarios 5-8 indicated that spillway depth was sensitive to the peak flow in spillway and its arrival time,and also to water depth at river cross-section and the inundated area.Water depth at river cross-section and the inundated area increased first and then started to drop with spillway depth kept decreasing.When spillway depth varied at only 2 m interval,the average variation of water depth at river cross-section basically exceeded 2 m and the variation of inundated area was more than 2.85%. | Hongjie WANG Yi ZHOU Shixin WANG Futao WANG | 2020 | Frontiers of Earth Science2020，14，1： | 3 |
| 18 | 基于收益-风险双目标规划的随机能力扩张模型显示文摘能力扩张问题是指在不同计划期,根据不断增长的市场需求,调整生产能力,使产能与需求合适匹配以寻求企业盈利的最佳表现.能力扩张涉及长期的产能投资,是生产领域的战略决策问题.当面对不确定需求时,这一决策任务变得十分复杂,需要从回报与风险两个角度评估能力扩张方案的性能.本文基于Scenario树描述多阶段的随机需求,从而建立随机环境下能力扩张问题的Scenario决策模型.其中考虑两个决策目标:最大化利润和最小化期望下方风险,因而形成了一个双目标规划问题.为求解该问题,基于二进制粒子群优化技术,提出了双目标优化的粒子群算法.算例表明该算法可以得到近似Pareto前沿,且能揭示利润与风险的同向变化关系. | 张人千 张兰慷 | 2015 | 系统工程理论与实践2015，35，7： | 3 |
| 19 | Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Climate Change显示文摘Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25 ℃/10 a,the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2 mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying,featuring 'significantly increased temperature,the decreased precipitation and sunshine'. These features are significant in autumn,thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenology boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland;different ecological land-use system have different ecological fragility. Specifically,the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability,while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore,suggestions on the ecological land use are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance,saving water and adapting to climate change. | SUN Yun-peng1,2 1. College of City and Environment,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China 2. Tangshan Teachers College,Tangshan 063000,China | 2010 | Asian Agricultural Research2010，2，4： | 3 |
| 20 | Tackle China's Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)显示文摘Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China's macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4%(6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth. | Kevin X.D. Huang Guoqiang Tian Yuqin Wang | 2019 | Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities2019，14，1： | 3 |
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