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| 1 | THE PERFORMANCE OF GLOBAL MODELS IN TC TRACK FORECASTING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC FROM 2010 TO 2012显示文摘Forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks from six global models during 2010 and 2012 were assessed to study the current capability of track forecast guidance over the western North Pacific.To measure the performance of the global model forecasts,a series of statistical evaluations of track forecasts up to 120 h were carried out,including the mean,median,percentile distribution,regional distribution,relative position,correlation analysis,and binned analysis.Results showed that certain improvements have been made for the six global models in their prediction accuracy and stability in the past three years.Remarkably,stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were found at all lead time levels from 2010 to 2012 for NCEP-GFS.An analysis of the regional distribution of position errors showed that a high-latitude region,low-latitude region(which covers mostly the TC genesis region)and the South China Sea are the three main areas within which large errors tend to concentrate.The majority of the models show their own respective characteristics of systematic bias at each lead time,as established through the relative position analysis results.Only the results of NCEP-GFS and CMA-T639 did not show any obvious systematic bias in the three-year study period.Binned analyses indicated that the prediction accuracy and stability of most of the models were better for strong TCs than for weak TCs at short lead time levels.It was also found that the models tend to perform better for initially large TCs,or for those with weak vertical wind shear at lead times shorter than 48 h.The results demonstrate the heavy reliance of forecast errors upon the initial characteristics of a TC or its environmental conditions. | Guomin Chen Hui Yu Qing Cao Zhihua Zeng | 2013 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2013，2，3： | 11 |
| 2 | SEASONAL FORECASTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC:A REVIEW显示文摘The attempt of this article is to provide a literature review on recent development and progress in seasonal forecasts for tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Since the predictability of seasonal TC activity mainly comes from the slowly-evolving sea surface temperature(SST) conditions and the large-scale atmospheric circulation teleconnection patterns, our current understanding on the relationships between the interannual TC variability and tropical SST forcing and variations of various climate modes is first reviewed. It serves as the scientific basis and gives us ideas how predictable the seasonal TC activity is. The main body of the article focuses on an overview of the forecast approaches and methodologies, including statistical and dynamical models and their combination, currently used in seasonal forecasts for TCs over the WNP, and an initial assessment of their prediction skills in the past decade or so. Some outstanding issues, including the intrinsic limitation of predictability due to various uncertainties and the areas for future developments, are also briefly discussed. It is expected that the quality of the scientifically based seasonal TC forecasts would be steadily improved with the advancement in the forecast techniques and the driving of society needs. | RUIFEN ZHAN YUQING WANG MING YING | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，3： | 8 |
| 3 | ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING AND FORECASTING RAPIDLY CHANGING PHENOMENA IN TROPICAL CYCLONES显示文摘This review of new understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs) is based on presentations at the International Top-level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones in Haikou, China. The major topics are the sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and intensity, rapid changes in rainfall, and advances in forecasting and forecaster requirements. Although improved track forecast guidance has been achieved with the Australian ACCESS-TC model and in track forecasts to 120 h by the China Meteorological Administration, there is a continuing need for better understanding and improved track forecast guidance. Advances in understanding of processes related to rapid intensification(RI), secondary eyewall formation, mechanisms controlling inner-core structure and size changes, and structure and intensity changes at landfall have been achieved, but progress in prediction of rapid changes in structure and intensity has been slow. Taking into account complex interactions involved in TC-related rainfall, a prioritized list of physical processes that govern rainfall from landfalling TCs in China has been developed. While forecaster participants were generally encouraged by the progress being made, they expressed a strong desire for a transition of that new knowledge to timely and reliable forecast guidance products. | RUSSELL L.ELSBERRy LIANSHOU CHEN JIM DAVIDSON ROBERT ROGERS YUQING WANG LIGUANG WU | 2013 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2013，2，1： | 7 |
| 4 | INTRODUCTION AND APPILICATION OF A NEW COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT INDEX FOR DAMAGE CAUSED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES显示文摘Using principal component analysis,a new comprehensive assessment index for damage caused by tropical cyclones in China's Mainland is developed based on data from 1984 to 2008.it is a weighted average of four kinds of damage data:including the deaths and missing,affected crop area,destroyed houses,and rate of direct economic loss.The weighting coefficients are set by principal component analysis.Two indices are derived,which differ in the importance of the deaths and missing in severity assessment according to the sign of the second principal component of damage data.Trends in the damage caused by individual tropical cyclones and in the annual frequencies of the various levels of severity of damage caused by tropical cyclones are analyzed.no clear trend in damage from individual tropical cyclones is found.The annual frequency of tropical cyclones causing heavy and catastrophic damage shows a clear decrease from 1984 to 2008 with no trend in the total number of damaging tropical cyclones. | Peiyan Chen Xiaotu Lei Ming Ying | 2013 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2013，2，3： | 7 |
| 5 | RECENT RESEARCH PROGRESS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY显示文摘This article provides a balanced, brief review on the research progress in the area of tropical cyclone(TC) structure and intensity achieved in the past three decade. Efforts have been made to introduce basic concepts and new findings relevant to the understanding of TC structure and intensity in ways as simple and appreciate as possible. After a brief discussion on the axisymmetric and asymmetric structure of mature TCs, progress in our understanding of spiral rainbands, concentric eyewall cycle, annular hurricane structure, and the inner-core size of TCs is highlighted. This is followed by discussions on the maximum potential intensity(MPI) of TCs and factors that limit TC maximum intensity. Some important remaining issues that need to be studied and addressed in the near future by the research community are identified and briefly discussed as well. | YUQING WANG | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，2： | 5 |
| 6 | THE INNER-CORE SIZE INCREASE OF TYPHOON MEGI(2010) DURING ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE显示文摘While Typhoon Megi(2010) shared many common features of tropical cyclones(TCs) that crossed Luzon Island in northern Philippines,it experienced a significant inner-core size increase with little eyewall contraction during its rapid intensification(RI) phase.This is unusual since the majority of TCs experience an eyewall contraction with little or a slow inner-core size increase during RI.The inner-core size increase during RI of Typhoon Megi was simulated reasonably well using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting(ARW-WRF) model with both dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging.In this paper processes responsible for the inner-core size increase of Typhoon Megi during its RI phase were analyzed based on a control simulation.It is shown that the inner-core size increase was primarily related to the binary interaction of Megi with a large-scale low-level depression in which Megi was embedded.The shearing/merging of the largescale depression with Megi and the subsequent axisymmetrization led to the strengthening of the outer circulation of Megi.Both the moist condition in the low-level depression and the binary interaction contributed to active spiral rainbands.Diabatic heating in spiral rainbands enhanced low-level inflow,which brought absolute angular momentum inward,increasing tangential wind speed outside the eyewall,thus leading to the outward expansion of tangential wind and the increase of the inner-core size of Megi. | YUQING WANG HUI WANG | 2013 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2013，2，2： | 5 |
| 7 | SENSITIVITY OF HURRICANE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE TO TWO TYPES OF PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES IN IDEALIZED HWRF SIMULATIONS显示文摘This paper investigates the sensitivity of simulated hurricane intensity and structure to two planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes in the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model including 1) the GFS scheme(control run) that uses the K-profile method to parameterize turbulent fluxes, and 2) the MYJ scheme that is based on turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) budget for turbulent closure. Idealized simulations with these two PBL schemes show that the storm in the TKE run is stronger than that in the control run after three days into simulation. Multi-scale structures are evaluated and compared between the control and the TKE runs prior to the divergence of the model-simulated intensity to elucidate the mechanism underlying such a difference in the intensity between the two runs. It is found that the storm in the TKE run has i) a shallower boundary layer with a stronger PBL inflow, ii) stronger boundary layer convergence closer to the storm center, iii) higher vorticity and inertial stability inside the RMW; iv) stronger and deeper updrafts in regions further inward from the radius of maximum wind(RMW), and v) more convective bursts located near the RMW as compared to the control run. Angular momentum budget analysis suggests that the convergence of angular momentum in the boundary layer is much stronger in the TKE run than in the control run, which is responsible for faster spin-up of the hurricane vortex in the TKE run. | JIE TANG JUN A.ZHANG CHANH KIEU FRANK D.MARKS | 2018 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2018，7，4： | 5 |
| 8 | ON THE USE OF A SYSTEM-SCALE ASCENT/DESCENT DIAGNOSTIC FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT,INTENSIFICATION AND DECAY显示文摘The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre has used two forms of a thermal advection diagnostic to identify relatively large areas of isentropic ascent and descent for many years. When the thermodynamic conditions are favourable the ascent regions are correlated with significant outbreaks of convection that produce heavy rainfall. The diagnostic is based on the relationship between geostrophic winds that turn with height and flow perpendicular to thickness contours. As the relationship is also valid for the more general case of gradient winds, the diagnostic, in theory, should be useful for most heavy-rain-bearing tropical systems. A climatology of rainfall rate with one form of the diagnostic is presented at two Queensland locations(one tropical and one subtropical) that demonstrates a clear relationship between the isentropic ascent wind distribution and heavy to extreme rainfall.The diagnostics applied to numerical weather prediction models are valuable forecast tools as they identify heavy rainfall threat regions within which the extreme rain is likely to fall, whereas the rainfall from the same models is often under predicted or has large location errors. Applied to tropical lows and tropical cyclones the diagnostics have been used successfully to forecast tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification and decay. Examples of such intensification and decay from around the world are presented, as well as a climatology of the diagnostic applied to intensifying tropical cyclones in the Australian region. | JEFF CALLAGHAN KEVIN TORY | 2014 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2014，3，2： | 5 |
| 9 | BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO SYNERGIZED STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL MULTI-HAZARDS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM显示文摘The most countries surrounding the Indian Ocean as well as Southeast Asian countries do not have operational experience in handling a combination of tsunami and other coastal hazard early warning systems.The challenge faced by warning providers,media,disaster managers,and coastal communities is in understanding the similarities and differences among different coastal hazards and the characteristics of the early warnings that are issued.There is a strong need to create synergies among different types of coastal hazard early warnings by reviewing the relevant existing standard operating procedures.These synergies can be achieved through identifying specific gaps and needs for making the existing early warning systems fully operational for the use in multi-hazards context.The project of Synergized Standard Operating Procedures for Coastal Multi-Hazards Early Warning System(SSOP) was proposed by Typhoon Committee Secretariat with the objectives of developing the SSOP Manual/Handbook and establishing the cooperation mechanism on coastal multi-hazard early warning among the target countries.The project will mainly focus on the meteorological and hydrological services for affected areas which become more vulnerable to natural disasters after tsunami and other costal disasters.The synergized standard operating procedure should be easier understandable and interpretable for decision makers,forecasters and dwellers. | OLAVO RASQUINHO DEREK LEONG JINPING LIU | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，4： | 5 |
| 10 | RECENT ADVANCES IN RESEARCH AND FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK, INTENSITY, AND STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL显示文摘This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall. | MARIE-DOMINIQUE LEROUX KIMBERLY WOOD RUSSELL L.ELSBERRY ESPERANZA O.CAYANAN ERIC HENDRICKS MATTHEW KUCAS PETER OTTO ROBERT ROGERS BUCK SAMPSON ZIFENG YU | 2018 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2018，7，2： | 4 |
| 11 | SELECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN TECHNIQUE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTS USING MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES显示文摘A selective ensemble mean technique for tropical cyclone(TC)track forecasts,which excludes from the ensemble those models that have large position errors at short lead times,was applied to a set of TC track forecasts produced by 11 operational global deterministic models.The position errors of the resulting selective ensemble mean TC track forecasts were verifi ed for 91 TCs in the western North Pacifi c from 2010 to 2013 that reached an intensity classifi cation of'tropical storm'or stronger.The TC position errors of the selective ensemble mean were smaller than those of a simple 11-member ensemble mean by 14.4%,7.4%and 4.7%at forecast times of24,48 and 72 hours,respectively.However,the errors were larger than those of the best single-model-based deterministic forecasts,which were ECMWF forecasts.The correlation between TC position errors at short and long lead times was weak,which partially explains why the selective ensemble mean technique in this study had lesser skill than ECMWF forecasts.For operational forecasting,simple ensemble mean forecasts by ECMWF and NCEP generally provide the best forecast performance for verifi cation samples from 2010 to 2013. | MASATO NISHIMURA MUNEHIKO YAMAGUCHI | 2015 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2015，4，2： | 4 |
| 12 | RECENT PROGRESS IN STORM SURGE FORECASTING显示文摘This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts, one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process(IWTCLP 4) held during 5-8 December, 2017. In the workshop, improvement of storm surge forecasting system was mainly discussed with relevance to the problem of estimating the impacts of tropical cyclone landfall.To deal with storm surges, accurate TC condition(predictions and forecasts) as input, reasonable storm surge predictions(with forecasting systems), and effective advisories/warnings(i.e. useful information products) are necessary. Therefore, we need to improve storm surge related matters systematically: input, prediction system, and ef fective information.This report tries to highlight recent progress in the field of storm surges in relation to three key points: improvement in storm surge forecasting models/system, TC conditions as input for storm surge predictions, and informative products for end users. | NADAO KOHNO SHISHIR K.DUBE MIKHAIL ENTEL S.H.M.FAKHRUDDIN DIANA GREENSLADE MARIE-DOMINIQUE LEROUX JAMIE RHOME NGUYEN BA THUY | 2018 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2018，7，2： | 4 |
| 13 | IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. PART Ⅱ: LATE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY PROJECTIONS显示文摘This paper reviews the latest studies on the relationship between projected late 21 st century climate changes and tropical cyclone(TC) activity in the western North Pacific(WNP) basin, which is the region of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)/World Meteorological Organization(WMO) Typhoon Committee members. Existing studies of projected changes of TC activity in this basin, such as frequency, intensity, precipitation, genesis location and track pattern are summarized, based on an assumed A1 B future climate change scenario. A review of available studies on projected future changes in WNP landfalling TC activity is also included.While it remains uncertain whether there has been any detectable human influence on tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, precipitation, track, or related aggregated storm activity metrics in the basin, modeling studies suggest changes in future tropical cyclone activity for the WNP basin. More models project decreases than increases in tropical storm frequency(range-70% to +60%);most studies project an increase in the TC intensity(range-3% to +18%);and all six available studies that include the WNP basin project increases in TC precipitation rates(range +5 to +30%). | MING YING THOMAS R.KNUTSON HIROTAKA KAMAHORI TSZ-CHEUNG LEE | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，2： | 4 |
| 14 | POTENTIAL INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOL ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY:CONVECTIVE FLUXES AND COLD-POOL ACTIVITY显示文摘We investigated the impacts of elevated aerosol concentrations on 2008 Western Pacific typhoon(NURI). Based on satellite and global aerosol model output, pollution levels were estimated. The typhoon was simulated for 96 hours beginning 17 August, 2008. During the final 60 hours CCN concentrations were enhanced as it neared the Philippines and coastal China.Early during the ingestion of enhanced CCN, precipitation was reduced due to suppressed collision and coalescence, and storm winds strengthened. Subsequently, greater amounts of condensate were thrust into supercooled levels where the drops froze resulting in greater latent heating. Convection thereby intensified which resulted in enhanced rainfall and more vigorous convectively-produced downdrafts. As the convection intensified in the outer rainbands the storm drifted over the developing cold-pools, and low level wind speeds diminished. Very high amounts of pollution aerosols resulted in large amounts of condensate being thrust into the storm anvil which weakened convective downdrafts and cold-pools, yet reductions in wind speed(although weaker) occurred compared with the clean control run. While the simulated storm was weaker than the observed storm, making it a borderline tropical storm or typhoon, the simulated response to aerosols was much different than anticipated based on previous simulations of aerosol impacts on tropical cyclones. In particular, the storm strengthened during the first period of aerosol ingestion followed by an extended period of storm weakening. Nonetheless, this study suggests that ingestion of elevated amounts of CCN into a tropical cyclone(TC) can appreciably alter the intensity of the storm. However, the pollution aerosols have very little impact on the storm track. | W.R.COTTON G.M.KRALL G.G.CARRIó | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，3： | 4 |
| 15 | PERFORMANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2016显示文摘The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively,indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015; however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times.A new error tracking tool,called a 'Track Error Rose',was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015. | GUOMIN CHEN XIPING ZHANG PEIYAN CHEN HUI YU RIJIN WAN | 2017 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2017，6，1： | 4 |
| 16 | STUDY ON TYPHOON DISASTER LOSS AND RISK PREDICTION AND BENEFIT ASSESSMENT OF DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION显示文摘Based on the meteorological monitoring data of Typhoon Nesat and Haitang in Fujian Province in 2017, the data of the typhoon disaster situation and third-party evaluation of typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation benefit were investigated. By using the mean value anomaly estimation method in the similarity analysis method, it is estimated that typhoon Nesat and Haitang will cause direct economic losses of 0.8 ~ 1.8 billion yuan, and the typhoon disaster risk index evaluation model is used. The disaster risk pre-assessment of Typhoon Nesat and Haitang is carried out. The results of the study and analysis show that the pre-assessment results of Typhoon Nesat and Haitang are basically consistent with the actual disaster situation. The disaster loss was reduced to the minimum. According to the third party evaluation and investigation, it was concluded that the contribution rate of reducing economic benefits was 75% in Fujian Province for preventing and landing double typhoons Nesat and Haitang. Mainly reflected in the ship return to the port to avoid the wind, geological hazards prone to the site construction and cage culture danger removal reinforcement and other links; The contribution rate of reducing casualties is 86, mainly reflected in fishermen disembarkation and personnel transfer to safety emergency shelter and other links. The benefit of this double typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation in Fujian Province is about 0.6 billion yuan to reduce the direct economic loss. According to the investigation, the overall satisfaction of the double typhoon meteorological service is 91.0 points. Typhoon early warning information service convenience satisfaction is 91.4 points, early warning information accuracy satisfaction is 87.2 points, government departments strong anti-Taiwan disaster reduction organization, linkage departments participate in disaster prevention and mitigation high. However, there is a gap between public awareness and participation in typhoon disasters. | LIN YANG CHUNRONG CAO DEHUI WU HONGHUA QIU MINGHUI LU LING LIU | 2018 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2018，7，4： | 4 |
| 17 | Human intestinal microbiota and healthy ageing显示文摘 | Kirsti Tiihonen Arthur C. Ouwehand Nina Rautonen | 2009 | Ageing Research Reviews2009，，2： | 3 |
| 18 | ASSESSMENT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION OF TROPICAL STORM WA SHI显示文摘In December,2011,the world’s second most deadly disaster of the year,Tropical Storm Washi(known as Sendong in the Philippines)landed along the east coast of Mindanao,Philippines,causing 1,292 deaths,1,049 missing,2,002 injured,and total 695,195 people(110,806 families)affected.This paper introduced briefly the hydro-meteorological characteristics of Washi,and assessed its devastating impacts on society and economy,and the response and recovery taken by the Philippines government during the whole period of Washi.Based on the assessment of impact of disaster,the paper indicated the gaps and needs on aspects of DRR actions and identified the future challenges on typhoon related disaster preparedness and reduction in the Philippines.Finally,the report provided the recommendations within the framework of the activities of Typhoon Committee to improve and enhance the capacity building on typhoon related disaster reduction in the Philippines. | Olavo Rasquinho Jinping Liu Derek Leong | 2013 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2013，2，3： | 3 |
| 19 | THE LONG TERM VARIATIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG显示文摘This study examines the long-term variations of tropical cyclone(TC) frequency and intensity in the South China Sea(SCS) and the vicinity of Hong Kong from 1961 to 2010 based on the best track data of four main weather agencies in the western North Pacific, namely the Hong Kong Observatory, China Meteorological Administration, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo and Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States. To account for the discrepancy in the best track data between agencies, the maximum sustained wind speeds are standardized to the 10-minute average before data analysis. Moreover, a sensitivity assessment based on three different data scenarios is also conducted to study the uncertainty in trend analysis due to the discrepancy in the datasets from various agencies. The results show that, likely modulated by the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, there exist strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in the TC frequency in the SCS and the vicinity of Hong Kong.For the long-term trend, all dataset/scenario combinations depict a decrease in the TC frequency in the SCS and the vicinity of Hong Kong during the study period, but the trend is not statistically significant at 5% level for most of the datasets. As for the TC intensity, the discrepancy between weather agencies remains very substantial even when the difference in the wind speed averaging period is accounted for. The large differences in the available datasets do not allow for a reliable detection of the long-term trend of the TC intensity in the SCS. The study of the TC impacts on Hong Kong reveals that there is no significant trend on the TC-induced extreme rainfall in Hong Kong. The extreme high winds associated with TCs within 500 km range of Hong Kong have no significant trend at Waglan Island(offshore island) while those of the urban station at Kai Tak have a signifi-cant decreasing trend. | TSZ-CHEUNG LEE CHRISTY YAN-YU LEUNG MANG-HIN KOK HO-SUN CHAN | 2012 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2012，1，3： | 3 |
| 20 | RADAR OBSERVATION OF PRECIPITATION ASYMMETRIES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON EAST CHINA COAST显示文摘This study explores,for the first time,the asymmetric distribution of precipitation in tropical cyclones(TCs) making landfall along east China coast using reflectivity data collected from coastal Doppler radars at China's Mainland and Taiwan.Six TCs(Saomai,Khanun,Wipha,Matsa,Rananim and Krosa) from 2004 to 2007 are examined.The temporal and spatial evolution of these TCs’ inner and outer core asymmetric precipitation patterns before and after landfall is investigated.The radius of inner-core region is a function of the size of a TC apart from a fixed radius(100 km) adopted in previous studies.All six TCs possessed distinct asymmetric precipitation patterns between the inner-and outer-core regions.The amplitude of asymmetry decreases with the increasing TC intensity and it displays an ascending(descending) trend in the inner(outer) core.In the inner-core region,the heavy rainfall with reflectivity factor above 40 d BZ tends to locate at the downshear side before landfall.Four cases have precipitation maxima on the downshear left side,in agreement with previous studies.As TCs approaching land(~ 2 hr before landfall),their precipitation maxima generally shift to the front quadrant of the motion partly due to the interaction of TC with the land surface.In the outer-core region,the precipitation maxima occur in the front quadrant of the motion in five of the six cases before landfall.After landfall,the precipitation maxima shift from the right-front quadrant clockwisely to the right-rear quadrant of the motion collocated well with the mountainous areas along the coast,which indicates the impact of topography forcing on the precipitation distribution.This study illustrated how the precipitation asymmetry in the inner-and outer-core at different stages of TC landfall is affected by storm motion,vertical wind shear and topography. | DAN WU KUN ZHAO BEN JONG-DAO JOU WEN-CHAU LEE | 2013 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2013，2，2： | 3 |
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