| 1 | End of the First Demographic Dividend and Possible Labor Market Response in China and Other Asian Countries(Regions)显示文摘This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China,and also discusses how this dividend could be extended.We first estimate how long China's first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective.Furthermore,in view of the possibility that China's first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014,we offer insight into how and to what extent China's labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year2050.For this goal to be achieved,the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent.We conduct an exercise in which the 2007 peak labor income age of 32years is shifted to 40years.In the case of the elderly,this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years.Throughout this paper,we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global'National Transfer Accounts'project. | Naohiro Ogawa Qiulin Chen | 2013 | China & World Economy2013，21，2： | 5 |
| 2 | Survival of geriatric patients after percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in Japan显示文摘AIM: To examine the long term survival of geriatric patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) in Japan. METHODS: We retrospectively included 46 Japanese community and tertiary hospitals to investigate 931 consecutive geriatric patients (≥ 65 years old) with swallowing difficulty and newly performed PEG between Jan 1st 2005 and Dec 31st 2008. We set death as an outcome and explored the associations among patient’s characteristics at PEG using log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Nine hundred and thirty one patients were followed up for a median of 468 d. A total of 502 deaths were observed (mortality 53%). However, 99%, 95%, 88%, 75% and 66% of 931 patients survived more than 7, 30, 60 d, a half year and one year, respectively. In addition, 50% and 25% of the patients survived 753 and 1647 d, respectively. Eight deaths were considered as PEG-related, and were associated with lower serum albumin levels (P = 0.002). On the other hand, among 28 surviving patients (6.5%), PEG was removed. In a multivariate hazard model, older age [hazard ratio (HR), 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.03; P = 0.009], higher C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.07; P = 0.005), and higher blood urea nitrogen (HR, 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02; P = 0.003) were significant poor prognostic factors, whereas higher albumin (HR, 0.67; 95% CI: 0.52-0.85; P = 0.001), female gender (HR, 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48-0.75; P < 0.001) and no previous history of ischemic heart disease (HR, 0.69; 95% CI: 0.54-0.88, P = 0.003) were markedly better prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that more than half of geriatric patients with PEG may survive longer than 2 years. The analysis elucidated prognostic factors. | Yutaka Suzuki Seryna Tamez Akihiko Murakami Akihiko Taira Akihiro Mizuhara Akira Horiuchi Chie Mihara Eiji Ako Hirohito Muramatsu Hitoshi Okano Hitoshi Suenaga Kazuaki Jomoto Junya Kobayashi Katsunari Takifuji Kazuhiro Akiyama Koh Tahara Koji Onishi Makoto Shimazaki Masami Matsumoto Masashi Ijima Masato Murakami Masato Nakahori Michiaki Kudo Michio Maruyama Mikako Takahashi Naohiro Washizawa Shigeru Onozawa Satoshi Goshi Satoyoshi Yamashita Shigeki Ono Shin Imazato Shinji Nishiwaki Shuichirou Kitahara Takao Endo Takao Iiri Takeshi Nagahama Takuto Hikichi Tatsuya Mikami Tetsuo Yamamoto Tetsushi Ogawa Tomoko Ogawa Tomoyuki Ohta Toshifumi Matsumoto Toshiroh Kura Tsutomu Kikuchi Tsuyoshi Iwase Tsuyotoshi Tsuji Yukio Nishiguchi Mitsuyoshi Urashima | 2010 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2010，16，40： | 4 |
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