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| 1 | Comparisons of Two Ensemble Mean Methods in Measuring the Average Error Growth and the Predictability显示文摘In this paper, taking the Lorenz system as an example, we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth. The results show that the geometric mean error (GME) has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error (AME) for the global average error growth, and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent, but the AME is not, as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993. Besides these, the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors. The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different. However, there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean, indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability. | DING Ruiqiang LI Jianping | 2011 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2011，25，4： | 7 |
| 2 | Determining the Spectrum of the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponents in a Multidimensional Chaotic System显示文摘For an n-dimensional chaotic system, we extend the definition of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE) from one-to n-dimensional spectra, and present a method for computing the NLLE spectrum. The method is tested on three chaotic systems with different complexity. The results indicate that the NLLE spectrum realistically characterizes the growth rates of initial error vectors along different directions from the linear to nonlinear phases of error growth. This represents an improvement over the traditional Lyapunov exponent spectrum, which only characterizes the error growth rates during the linear phase of error growth. In addition, because the NLLE spectrum can effectively separate the slowly and rapidly growing perturbations, it is shown to be more suitable for estimating the predictability of chaotic systems, as compared to the traditional Lyapunov exponent spectrum. | Ruiqiang DING Jianping LI Baosheng LI | 2017 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2017，34，9： | 6 |
| 3 | Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia:Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction显示文摘In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter. | Jianping LI Tiejun XIE Xinxin TANG Hao WANG Cheng SUN Juan FENG Fei ZHENG Ruiqiang DING | 2022 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2022，39，4： | 4 |
| 4 | Influence of the Preceding Austral Summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on the Amplitude of ENSO Decay显示文摘There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO.The Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode(SAM) is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics.This study shows that the austral summer(December–January–February; DJF) SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn(March–April–May;MAM).The mechanisms associated with this SAM–ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows:The SAM is positively(negatively) correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle(high) latitudes.This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole(SOD).The DJF SOD,caused by the DJF SAM,could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation,including trade winds,over the Nio3.4 area.Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Nio3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback,which eventually results in a cooling(warming) over the Nio3.4 area followed by the positive(negative) DJF SAM. | Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING | 2017 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2017，34，11： | 3 |
| 5 | Comparison of Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Vectors with Bred Vectors, Random Perturbations and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Strategies in a Barotropic Model显示文摘The breeding method has been widely used to generate ensemble perturbations in ensemble forecasting due to its simple concept and low computational cost. This method produces the fastest growing perturbation modes to catch the growing components in analysis errors. However, the bred vectors(BVs) are evolved on the same dynamical flow, which may increase the dependence of perturbations. In contrast, the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) scheme generates flow-dependent perturbations as in the breeding method, but regularly conducts the Gram–Schmidt reorthonormalization processes on the perturbations. The resulting NLLVs span the fast-growing perturbation subspace efficiently, and thus may grasp more components in analysis errors than the BVs.In this paper, the NLLVs are employed to generate initial ensemble perturbations in a barotropic quasi-geostrophic model.The performances of the ensemble forecasts of the NLLV method are systematically compared to those of the random perturbation(RP) technique, and the BV method, as well as its improved version—the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF)method. The results demonstrate that the RP technique has the worst performance in ensemble forecasts, which indicates the importance of a flow-dependent initialization scheme. The ensemble perturbation subspaces of the NLLV and ETKF methods are preliminarily shown to catch similar components of analysis errors, which exceed that of the BVs. However, the NLLV scheme demonstrates slightly higher ensemble forecast skill than the ETKF scheme. In addition, the NLLV scheme involves a significantly simpler algorithm and less computation time than the ETKF method, and both demonstrate better ensemble forecast skill than the BV scheme. | Jie FENG Ruiqiang DING Jianping LI Deqiang LIU | 2016 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2016，33，9： | 3 |
| 6 | Determination of the Backward Predictability Limit and Its Relationship with the Forward Predictability Limit显示文摘In this work, two types of predictability are proposed—forward and backward predictability—and then applied in the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent approach to the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models to quantitatively estimate the local forward and backward predictability limits of states in phase space. The forward predictability mainly focuses on the forward evolution of initial errors superposed on the initial state over time, while the backward predictability is mainly concerned with when the given state can be predicted before this state happens. From the results, there is a negative correlation between the local forward and backward predictability limits. That is, the forward predictability limits are higher when the backward predictability limits are lower, and vice versa. We also find that the sum of forward and backward predictability limits of each state tends to fluctuate around the average value of sums of the forward and backward predictability limits of sufficient states.Furthermore, the average value is constant when the states are sufficient. For different chaotic systems, the average value is dependent on the chaotic systems and more complex chaotic systems get a lower average value. For a single chaotic system,the average value depends on the magnitude of initial perturbations. The average values decrease as the magnitudes of initial perturbations increase. | Xuan LI Ruiqiang DING Jianping LI | 2019 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2019，36，6： | 1 |
| 7 | MAS NMR studies on the dealumination of zeolite MCM-22 显示文摘 | MA Ding DENG Feng FU Ruiqiang | 2001 | J Phys Chem B2001，105，9： | 1 |
| 8 | Interdec- adal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Indian Ocean 显示文摘 | DING Ruiqiang HA Kyung-ja LI Jianping | 2010 | Climate Dynamics2010，34，7： | 1 |
| 9 | Relationships between the Extratropical ENSO Precursor and Leading Modes of Atmospheric Variability in the Southern Hemisphere显示文摘Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of El Ni ?no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere(SH) might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole(SPQ).The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode(SAM), the first Pacific–South America(PSA1) mode, and the second Pacific–South America(PSA2) mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA. | Jianhuang QIN Ruiqiang DING Zhiwei WU Jianping LI Sen ZHAO | 2017 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2017，34，3： | 1 |
| 10 | Nonlinear finite-time Lyapunov exponent and predictability显示文摘 | Ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li | 2006 | Physics Letters A2006，，5： | 1 |
| 11 | Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans显示文摘 | Jianping Li Ruiqiang Ding | 2013 | Int. J. Climatol2013，，8： | 1 |
| 12 | Recent Advances in China on the Predictability of Weather and Climate显示文摘This article summarizes the progress made in predictability studies of weather and climate in recent years in China,with a main focus on advances in methods to study error growth dynamics and reduce uncertainties in the forecasting of weather and climate.Specifically,it covers(a)advances in methods to study weather and climate predictability dynamics,especially those in nonlinear optimal perturbation methods associated with initial errors and model errors and their applications to ensemble forecasting and target observations,(b)new data assimilation algorithms for initialization of predictions and novel assimilation approaches to neutralize the combined effects of initial and model errors for weather and climate,(c)applications of new statistical approaches to climate predictions,and(d)studies on meso-to small-scale weather system predictability dynamics.Some of the major frontiers and challenges remaining in predictability studies are addressed in this context. | Wansuo DUAN Lichao YANG Mu MU Bin WANG Xueshun SHEN Zhiyong MENG Ruiqiang DING | 2023 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2023，40，8： | 1 |
| 13 | Quantitative Comparison of Predictabilities of Warm and Cold Events Using the Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method显示文摘The backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method(BNLLE)is applied to quantify the predictability of warm and cold events in the Lorenz model.Results show that the maximum prediction lead times of warm and cold events present obvious layered structures in phase space.The maximum prediction lead times of each warm(cold)event on individual circles concentric with the distribution of warm(cold)regime events are roughly the same,whereas the maximum prediction lead time of events on other circles are different.Statistical results show that warm events are more predictable than cold events. | Xuan LI Ruiqiang DING Jianping LI | 2020 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2020，37，9： | 1 |
| 14 | Predictability of Ensemble Forecasting Estimated Using the Kullback–Leibler Divergence in the Lorenz Model显示文摘A new method to quantify the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting is presented using the Kullback–Leibler(KL)divergence(also called the relative entropy), which provides a measure of the difference between the probability distributions of ensemble forecasts and local reference(true) states. The KL divergence is applicable to a non-normal distribution of ensemble forecasts, which is a substantial improvement over the previous method using the ensemble spread. An example from the three-variable Lorenz model illustrates the effectiveness of the KL divergence, which can effectively quantify the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting. On this basis, the KL divergence is used to investigate the dependence of the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting on the initial states and the magnitude of initial errors. The local predictability limit of ensemble forecasting varies considerably with the initial states, as well as with the magnitude of initial errors. Further research is needed to examine the real-world applications of the KL divergence in measuring the predictability of ensemble weather forecasts. | Ruiqiang DING Baojia LIU Bin GU Jianping LI Xuan LI | 2019 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2019，36，8： | 0 |
| 15 | Plasma non-transferrin-bound iron uptake by the small intestine leads to intestinal injury and intestinal flora dysbiosis in an iron overload mouse model and Caco-2 cells显示文摘Iron overload often occurs during blood transfusion and iron supplementation, resulting in the presence of non-transferrin-bound iron(NTBI) in host plasma and damage to multiple organs, but effects on the intestine have rarely been reported. In this study, an iron overload mouse model with plasma NTBI was established by intraperitoneal injection of iron dextran. We found that plasma NTBI damaged intestinal morphology, caused intestinal oxidative stress injury and reactive oxygen species(ROS) accumulation,and induced intestinal epithelial cell apoptosis. In addition, plasma NTBI increased the relative abundance of Ileibacterium and Desulfovibrio in the cecum, while the relative abundance of Faecalibaculum and Romboutsia was reduced. Ileibacterium may be a potential microbial biomarker of plasma NTBI. Based on the function prediction analysis, plasma NTBI led to the weakening of intestinal microbiota function, significantly reducing the function of the extracellular structure. Further investigation into the mechanism of injury showed that iron absorption in the small intestine significantly increased in the iron group. Caco-2 cell monolayers were used as a model of the intestinal epithelium to study the mechanism of iron transport. By adding ferric ammonium citrate(FAC, plasma NTBI in physiological form) to the basolateral side, the apparent permeability coefficient(Papp) values from the basolateral to the apical side were greater than 3×10^(-6)cm s^(-1). Intracellular ferritin level and apical iron concentration significantly increased, and SLC39A8(ZIP8) and SLC39A14(ZIP14) were highly expressed in the FAC group.Short hairpin RNA(sh RNA) was used to knock down ZIP8 and ZIP14 in Caco-2 cells. Transfection with ZIP14-specific sh RNA decreased intracellular ferritin level and inhibited iron uptake. These results revealed that plasma NTBI may cause intestinal injury and intestinal flora dysbiosis due to the uptake of plasma NTBI from the basolateral side into the small intestine, which is probably mediated by ZIP14. | Qian Zhang Haoxuan Ding Xiaonan Yu Qiwen Wang Xuejiao Li Ruiqiang Zhang Jie Feng | 2023 | Science China(Life Sciences)2023，66，9： | 0 |
| 16 | Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation显示文摘The variability in the Southern Ocean(SO) sea surface temperature(SST) has drawn increased attention due to its unique physical features; therefore, the temporal characteristics of the SO SST anomalies(SSTA) and their influence on extratropical atmospheric circulation are addressed in this study. Results from empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the principal mode of the SO SSTA exhibits a dipole-like structure, suggesting a negative correlation between the SSTA in the middle and high latitudes, which is referred to as the SO Dipole(SOD) in this study. The SOD features strong zonal symmetry, and could reflect more than 50% of total zonal-mean SSTA variability. We find that stronger(weaker) Subantarctic and Antarctic polar fronts are related to the positive(negative) phases of the SOD index, as well as the primary variability of the large-scale SO SSTA meridional gradient. During December–January–February, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet shift toward the Antarctic due to changes in the SSTA that could be associated with a positive phase of the SOD, and are also accompanied by a poleward shift of the subtropical jet. During June–July–August, in association with a positive SOD, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet are strengthened, accompanied by a strengthened subtropical jet. These seasonal differences are linked to the differences in the configuration of the polar jet and the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere. | Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Fred KUCHARSKI Ruiqiang DING Ting LIU | 2018 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2018，35，7： | 0 |
| 17 | Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data显示文摘In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h.The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,respectively.The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related.The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS.Furthermore,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available.Further work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks. | Quanjia ZHONG Lifeng ZHANG Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING Jie FENG | 2018 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2018，35，12： | 0 |
| 18 | Evaluation of the performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating the South Pacific Quadrupole-ENSO relationship显示文摘先前的观测研究表明,南太平洋四极子海温模态(SPQ)可以有效地作为ENSO的前兆信号.本文利用20个CMIP6模式及其对应的20个先前的CMIP5模式的工业化前气候模拟试验数据,评估和比较了CMIP6以及CMIP5模式对SPQ与ENSO的关系的模拟能力.结果表明,大多数CMIP5和CMIP6模式可以合理地模拟SPQ的基本特征.与早期的CMIP5模式相比,CMIP6模式能够更加真实地模拟SPQ与ENSO之间的关系.进一步分析表明,CMIP6模式模拟SPQ与ENSO关系的能力提高,是因为CMIP6模式能够更好地模拟出在副热带/热带太平洋上与SPQ相关的表面海气热力耦合过程,以及在赤道太平洋上与SPQ相关的次表层海温的异常相应. | Zhenchao Wang Lin Han Ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li | 2021 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2021，14，4： | 0 |
| 19 | 热带-热带外海洋对2000年后ENSO预测技巧的贡献显示文摘本文利用1979–2017年的再分析逐月资料,首先探讨了2000年前后ENSO海温(Niño3.4指数)与太平洋和其他海域的ENSO海温前兆信号(WWV:VM:vSPQ:NTA SST)之间的关系变化。结果表明由于热带太平洋信号WWV自身方差的骤减,WWV在2000年后并不能在超前6个月以上成为一个很好的预测因子;而南北太平洋区域的海温信号(VM:SPQ)与Niño3.4指数的超前关系保持稳定:值得注意的是,NTA SST与ENSO之间的关系较2000年前更好,且仍有增强趋势。其次,结合分析结果,将热带外ENSO前兆信号加入到一个ENSO统计预测模型之中,原模型预测技巧均得到提升,超前一年左右的时间预测结果与观测相关系数均大于0.7,并且在一定程度上降低了原模型的春季可预报障碍(SPB)现象的强度。 | SHI Liang DING Ruiqiang | 2020 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2020，13，4： | 0 |
| 20 | The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii显示文摘It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2^(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases. | Jie FENG Jianping LI Jing ZHANG Deqiang LIU Ruiqiang DING | 2019 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2019，36，3： | 0 |
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