| 2 | Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century显示文摘We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3,a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900,to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability.We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data:measurement and sampling errors,uncertainties in temperature bias estimates,and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated.We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record.The best estimates of trends for 1900-2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017°C/decade for the year as a whole,and 0.14±0.021°C/decade,0.11±0.021°C/decade,0.04±0.017°C/decade,and 0.07±0.017°C/decade for winter,spring,summer and autumn respectively.For 1954-2006,the trends for annual,winter,spring,summer and autumn are:0.26±0.032°C/decade,0.35±0.046°C/decade,0.25±0.051°C/decade,0.16±0.037°C/decade and 0.22±0.055°C/decade.Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2006 and 1954-2006,while during the most recent period(the satellite era,1979-2006),all the seasons show similar warming trends:0.45±0.13°C/decade,0.51±0.11°C/decade,0.52±0.16°C/decade,0.37±0.10°C/decade and 0.50±0.16°C/decade for annual,winter,spring,summer and autumn.Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951-2001,so this bias was not removed. | LI QingXiang DONG WenJie LI Wei GAO XiaoRong JONES P KENNEDY J PARKER D | 2010 | Chinese Science Bulletin2010，55，19： | 26 |
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