| 3 | Catastrophe Risk Management for Electric Power Distribution Systems:An Insurance Approach显示文摘High-impact,low-probability catastrophes may cause equipment damage,customer outages and serious economic losses to an aging power distribution infrastructure with low redundancy and automation.To cope with catastrophe risks faced by distribution systems(DSs),insurance is proposed as a supplement to existing resilience enhancement measures,which can provide financial aid in recovery after disasters,as well as incentives to make DSs more resilient to potential hazards.This calls for a quantitative assessment for insurance pricing that can not only predict potential losses caused by future catastrophes but also evaluate the effect of risk management measures.In this paper,a four-module actuarial framework,including hazard,vulnerability,resilience,and insurance modules,is developed to assess the catastrophe risks of DSs.Based on Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)and mixed integer linear programming(MILP),the dynamic characteristics of disasters,random failures of equipment,control measures including fault isolation,load transfer,line patrolling,manual switching,and fault repair,are comprehensively incorporated in the premium determination of catastrophe insurance.Numerical simulations are performed on the modified IEEE 33-bus test systems to illustrate the validity of the proposed catastrophe insurance schemes. | Siyuan Sun Gengfeng Li Yiheng Bian Zhaohong Bie Qianwen Hu | 2023 | CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems2023，9，1： | 1 |
| 4 | Immediate and long-term outcomes after treat-all among people living with HIV in China:an interrupted time series analysis显示文摘Background In 2003,China implemented free antiretroviral therapy(ART)for people living with HIV(PLHIV),establishing an eligibility threshold of CD4<200 cells/μl.Subsequently,the entry criteria were revised in 2012(eligibility threshold:CD4≤350 cells/μl),2014(CD4≤500 cells/μl),and 2016(treat-all).However,the impact of treat-all policy on HIV care and treatment indicators in China is unknown.We aimed to elucidate the immediate and long-term impact of the implementation of treat-all policy in China.Methods Anonymized programmatic data on ART initiation and collection in PLHIV who newly started ART were retrieved between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019,from two provincial and municipal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and ten major infectious disease hospitals specialized in HIV care in China.We used Poisson and quasi-Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of treat-all on three key indicators:monthly proportion of 30-day ART initiation,mean CD4 counts(cells/μl)at ART initiation,and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis(year).We built separate models according to gender,age,route of transmission and region.Results Monthly data on ART initiation and collection were available for 75,516 individuals[gender:83.8%males;age:median 39 years,interquartile range(IQR):28-53;region:18.5%Northern China,10.9%Northeastern China,17.5%Southern China,49.2%Southwestern China].In the first month of treat-all,compared with the contemporaneous counterfactual,there was a significant increase in proportion of 30-day ART initiation[+12.6%,incidence rate ratio(IRR)=1.126,95%CI:1.033-1.229;P=0.007]and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis(+7.0%,IRR=1.070,95%CI:1.021-1.120;P=0.004),while there was no significant change in mean CD4 at ART initiation(IRR=0.990,95%CI:0.956-1.026;P=0.585).By December 2019,the three outcomes were not significantly different from expected levels.In the stratified analysis,compared with the contemporaneous counterfactual,mean CD4 at ART initiation showed significant increases in Northern China(+3.3%,IRR=1.033,95%CI:1.001-1.065;P=0.041)and Northeastern China(+8.0%,IRR=1.080,95%CI:1.003-1.164;P=0.042)in the first month of treat-all;mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis showed significant increases in male(+5.6%,IRR=1.056,95%CI:1.010-1.104;P=0.016),female(+14.8%,IRR=1.148,95%CI:1.062-1.240;P<0.001),aged 26-35(+5.3%,IRR=1.053,95%CI:1.001-1.109;P=0.048)and>50(+7.8%,IRR=1.078,95%CI:1.000-1.161;P=0.046),heterosexual transmission(+12.4%,IRR=1.124,95%CI:1.042-1.213;P=0.002)and Southwestern China(+12.9%,IRR=1.129,95%CI:1.055-1.208;P<0.001)in the first month of treat-all.Conclusions The implementation of treat-all policy in China was associated with a positive effect on HIV care and treatment outcomes.To advance the work of rapid ART,efforts should be made to streamline the testing and ART initiation process,provide comprehensive support services,and address the issue of uneven distribution of medical resources. | Xinsheng Wu Guohui Wu Ping Ma Rugang Wang Linghua Li Yinghui Sun Junjie Xu Yuwei Li Tong Zhang Quanmin Li Yuecheng Yang Lijing Wang Xiaoli Xin Ying Qiao Bingxue Fang Zhen Lu Xinyi Zhou Yuanyi Chen Qi Liu Gengfeng Fu Hongxia Wei Xiaojie Huang Bin Su Hui Wang Huachun Zou | 2023 | Infectious Diseases of Poverty2023，12，4： | 0 |
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