|
|
|
题名
|
作者
|
年代
|
出处
|
被引量
|
| 1 | Influenza A (H1N1) transmission by road traffic between cities and towns显示文摘Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns. The results showed that areas along the highways and road intersections had a higher incidence rate than other areas. Expressways and county roads played an important role in the rapid development stage and the epidemic peak, respectively, and intercity bus stations showed a high risk of disease transmission. The model simulates the intensity and center of disease outbreaks in cities and towns, and provides a more complete simulation of the disease spatiotemporal process than other models. | XIAO Hong TIAN HuaiYu ZHAO Jian ZHANG XiXing LI YaPin LIU Yi LIU RuChun CHEN TianMu | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，24： | 4 |
| 2 | Control measures during the COVID-19 outbreak reduced the transmission of hand,foot,and mouth disease显示文摘Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases.This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in China.A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in China's Mainland from 2015 to 2020.The absolute difference(AD)and relative difference(RD)between the reported incidence in 2020,and simulated maximum,minimum,or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated.The incidence and R effof HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19,and in the second half of 2020,the incidence and R effof HFMD have rebounded.The results show that the total attack rate(TAR)in 2020 was lower than the maximum,minimum,and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities(except Changsha City).For the maximum,median,minimum fitted TAR,the range of RD(%)is 42·20-99·20%,36·35-98·41%48·35-96·23%(except Changsha City)respectively.The preventive and control measures of COVID-19 have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission. | Yan Niu Li Luo Jia Rui Shiting Yang Bin Deng Zeyu Zhao Shengnan Lin Jingwen Xu Yuanzhao Zhu Yao Wang Meng Yang Xingchun Liu Tianlong Yang Weikang Liu Peihua Li Zhuoyang Li Chan Liu Jiefeng Huang Tianmu Chen | 2021 | Journal of Safety Science and Resilience2021，2，2： | 3 |
| 3 | Effectiveness of Interventions to Control Transmission of Reemergent Cases of COVID-19--Jilin Province,China,2020显示文摘What is already known about this topic?COVID-19 has a high transmissibility calculated by mathematical model.The dynamics of the disease and the effectiveness of intervention to control the transmission remain unclear in Jilin Province,China.What is added by this report?This is the first study to report the dynamic characteristics and to quantify the effectiveness of interventions implemented in the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Jilin Province,China.The effective reproduction number of the disease before and after May 10 was 4.00 and p<0.01,respectively.The combined interventions reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19 by 99% and the number of cases by 98.36%.What are the implications for public health practice?The findings of this study would add data on the transmission of COVID-19 and provide evidence to prepare the second outbreak transmission of the disease in other areas of China even in many other countries. | Qinglong Zhao Meng Yang Yao Wang Laishun Yao Jianguo Qiao Zhiyong Cheng Hanyin Liu Xingchun Liu Yuanzhao Zhu Zeyu Zhao Jia Rui Tianmu Chen | 2020 | China CDC weekly2020，2，34： | 2 |
| 4 | Feasibility of Booster Vaccination in High-Risk Populations for Controlling Coronavirus Variants—China,2021显示文摘Introduction:Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)in China.The study aims to estimate effectiveness of booster vaccines for high-risk populations(HRPs).Methods:A vaccinated Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed(SEIAR)model was developed to simulate scenarios of effective reproduction number(Reff)from 4 to 6.Total number of infectious and asymptomatic cases were used to evaluated vaccination effectiveness.Results:Our model showed that we could not prevent outbreaks when covering 80%of HRPs with booster unless Reff=4.0 or the booster vaccine had efficacy against infectivity and susceptibility of more than 90%.The results were consistent when the outcome index was confirmed cases or asymptomatic cases.Conclusions:An ideal coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)booster vaccination strategy for HRPs would be expected to reach the initial goal to control the transmission of the Delta variant in China.Accordingly,the recommendation for the COVID-19 booster vaccine should be implemented in HRPs who are already vaccinated and could prevent transmission to other groups. | Kangguo Li Zeyu Zhao Hongjie Wei Jia Rui Jiefeng Huang Xiaohao Guo Yichao Guo Shiting Yang Guzainuer Abudurusuli Li Luo Xingchun Liu Yao Wang Jingwen Xu Yuanzhao Zhu Meng Yang TianlongYang Weikang Liu Bin Deng Chan Liu Zhuoyang Li Peihua Li Shanshan Yu Zimei Yang Yanhua Su Benhua Zhao Yan Niu Tianmu Chen | 2021 | China CDC weekly2021，3，50： | 2 |
| 5 | Simulating potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants based on contact-tracing data:A modelling study in Fujian Province,China显示文摘Although studies have compared the relative severity of Omicron and Delta variants by assessing the relative risks,there are still gaps in the knowledge of the potential COVID-19 burden these variations may cause.And the contact patterns in Fujian Province,China,have not been described.We identified 8969 transmission pairs in Fujian,China,by analyzing a contact-tracing database that recorded a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in September 2021.We estimated the waning vaccine effectiveness against Delta variant infection,contact patterns,and epidemiology distributions,then simulated potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants using a multi-group mathematical model.For instance,in the contact setting without stringent lockdowns,we estimated that in a potential Omicron wave,only 4.7%of infections would occur in Fujian Province among individuals aged>60 years.In comparison,58.75%of the death toll would occur in unvaccinated individuals aged>60 years.Compared with no strict lockdowns,combining school or factory closure alone reduced cumulative deaths of Delta and Omicron by 28.5%and 6.1%,respectively.In conclusion,this study validates the need for continuous mass immunization,especially among elderly aged over 60 years old.And it confirms that the effect of lockdowns alone in reducing infections or deaths is minimal.However,these measurements will still contribute to lowering peak daily incidence and delaying the epidemic,easing the healthcare system's burden. | Yichao Guo Wenjing Ye Zeyu Zhao Xiaohao Guo Wentao Song Yanhua Su Benhua Zhao Jianming Ou Yanqin Deng Tianmu Chen | 2023 | Infectious Disease Modelling2023，8，1： | 1 |
| 6 | Modelling the Emerging COVID-19 Epidemic and Estimating Intervention Effectiveness—Taiwan,China,2021显示文摘Introduction:The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic recently affected Taiwan,China.This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of COVID-19 to predict trends and evaluate the effects of interventions.Methods:The data of reported COVID-19 cases was collected from April 20 to May 26,2021,which included daily reported data(Scenario I)and reported data after adjustment(Scenario II).A susceptibleexposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered model was developed to fit the data.The effective reproductive number(Reff)was used to estimate the transmissibility of COVID-19.Results:A total of 4,854 cases were collected for the modelling.In Scenario I,the intervention has already taken some effects from May 17 to May 26(the Reff reduced to 2.1).When the Reff was set as 0.1,the epidemic was projected to end on July 4,and a total of 1,997 cases and 855 asymptomatic individuals would have been reported.In Scenario II,the interventions were projected as having been effective from May 24 to May 26(the Reff reduced to 0.4).When the Reff was set as 0.1,the epidemic was projected to end on July 1,and a total of 1,482 cases and 635 asymptomatic individuals would have been reported.Conclusion:The epidemic of COVID-19 was projected to end after at least one month,even if the most effective interventions were applied in Taiwan,China.Although there were some positive effects of intervention in Taiwan,China. | Weikang Liu Wenjing Ye Zeyu Zhao Chan Liu Bin Deng Li Luo Jiefeng Huang Yao Wang Jia Rui Benhua Zhao Yanhua Su Shenggen Wu Kun Chen Jianming Ou Tianmu Chen | 2021 | China CDC weekly2021，3，34： | 1 |
| 7 | The collaboration between infectious disease modeling and public health decision-making based on the COVID-19显示文摘Public health decision-making may have great uncertainty especially in dealing with emerging infectious diseases,so it is necessary to establish a collaborative mechanism among modelers,epidemiologists,and public health decision-makers to reduce the uncertainty as much as possible.We searched the relevant studies on transmission dynamics modeling of infectious diseases,SARS,MERS,and COVID-19 as of March 1,2021 based on PubMed.We compared the key health decision-making time points of SARS,MERS,and COVID-19 prevention and control,and the publication time points of modeling research,to reveal the collaboration between infectious disease modeling and public health decision-making in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.Searching with infectious disease and mathematical model as keywords,there were 166,81 and 1289 studies on the modeling of infectious disease transmission dynamics of SARS,MERS,and COVID-19 were retrieved respectively.Based on the modeling application framework of public health practice proposed in the current study,the collaboration among modelers,epidemiologists and public health decision-makers should be strengthened in the future. | Yan Niu Zhuoyang Li Ling Meng Shengnan Wang Zeyu Zhao Tie Song Jianhua Lu Tianmu Chen Qun Li Xuan Zou | 2021 | Journal of Safety Science and Resilience2021，2，2： | 1 |
| 8 | Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: A modelling study显示文摘Objective:In China,the burden of shigellosis is unevenly distributed,notably across various ages and geographical areas.Shigellosis temporal trends appear to be seasonal.We should clarify seasonal warnings and regional transmission patterns.Method:This study adopted a Logistic model to assess the seasonality and a dynamics model to compare the transmission in different areas.The next-generation matrix was used to calculate the effective reproduction number(Reff)to quantify the transmissibility.Results:In China,the rate of shigellosis fell from 35.12 cases per 100,000 people in 2005 to 7.85 cases per 100,000 people in 2017,peaking in June and August.After simulation by the Logistic model,the‘peak time’is mainly concentrated from mid-June to mid-July.China's‘early warning time’is primarily focused on from April to May.We predict the‘peak time’of shigellosis is the 6.30th month and the‘early warning time’is 3.87th month in 2021.According to the dynamics model results,the water/food transfer pathway has been mostly blocked off.The transmissibility of different regions varies greatly,such as the mean Reff of Longde County(3.76)is higher than Xiamen City(3.15),higher than Chuxiong City(2.52),and higher than Yichang City(1.70).Conclusion:The‘early warning time’for shigellosis in China is from April to May every year,and it may continue to advance in the future,such as the early warning time in 2021 is in mid-March.Furthermore,we should focus on preventing and controlling the personto-person route of shigellosis and stratified deploy prevention and control measures according to the regional transmission. | Zeyu Zhao Meng Yang Jinlong Lv Qingqing Hu Qiuping Chen Zhao Lei Mingzhai Wang Hao Zhang Xiongjie Zhai Benhua Zhao Yanhua Su Yong Chen Xu-Sheng Zhang Jing-An Cui Roger Frutos Tianmu Chen | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，2： | 1 |
| 9 | Tuberculosis Prevalence Trends from a Predictive Modelling Study-10 High-Burden Countries,1980-2035显示文摘Summary What is already known about this topic?Given the challenges presented by drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis(TB)and the rising mobility of the population,achieving the objective of eradicating TB appears uncertain. | Qiuping Chen Qiao Liu Kangguo Li Laurent Gavotte Roger Frutos Tianmu Chen | 2024 | China CDC weekly2024，6，12： | 0 |
| 10 | Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic显示文摘Background:Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections,deaths,and better economic performance,compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies.However,the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic.We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment,and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate(CTTI)strategy.Methods:We develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination.We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province,China,from September 10 to October 9,2021,and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province,China for the period from March 1 to April 1,2022.Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefcient(PRCC).Results:Calibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30(95%confdence interval CI:28–33)days,after 10(95%CI:9–11)rounds of citywide testing.The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50(95%CI:41–57)days if supported with sufcient public health resources and population compliance,which shows the efectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy.Conclusions:The CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks.Nonetheless,the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging,which requires routine monitoring for early detection,adequate testing capacity,efcient contact tracing,and high isolation compliance,which constrain its benefts in regions with limited resources.Moreover,these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases.Hence,in regions where CTTI is not possible,personal protection,public health control measures,and vaccination are indispensable for mitigating and exiting the COVID-19 pandemic. | Pei Yuan Yi Tan Liu Yang Elena Arufo Nicholas H.Ogden Guojing Yang Haixia Lu Zhigui Lin Weichuan Lin Wenjun Ma Meng Fan Kaifa Wang Jianhe Shen Tianmu Chen Huaiping Zhu | 2022 | Infectious Diseases of Poverty2022，11，5： | 0 |
| 11 | Transmissibility of tuberculosis among students and non-students:an occupational-specific mathematical modelling显示文摘Background: Recently, despite the steady decline in the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic globally, school TB outbreaks have been frequently reported in China. This study aimed to quantify the transmissibility ofMycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) among students and non-students using a mathematical model to determine characteristics of TB transmission.Methods: We constructed a dataset of reported TB cases from four regions (Jilin Province, Xiamen City, Chuxiong Prefecture, and Wuhan City) in China from 2005 to 2019. We classified the population and the reported cases under student and non-student groups, and developed two mathematical models [nonseasonal model (Model A) and seasonal model (Model B)] based on the natural history and transmission features of TB. The effective reproduction number (R(eff)) of TB between groups were calculated using the collected data.Results: During the study period, data on 456,423 TB cases were collected from four regions: students accounted for 6.1% of cases. The goodness-of-fit analysis showed that Model A had a better fitting effect (P < 0.001). The average R_(eff) of TB estimated from Model A was 1.68 [interquartile range (IQR): 1.20–1.96] in Chuxiong Prefecture, 1.67 (IQR: 1.40–1.93) in Xiamen City, 1.75 (IQR: 1.37–2.02) in Jilin Province, and 1.79 (IQR: 1.56–2.02) in Wuhan City. The average R_(eff) of TB in the non-student population was 23.30 times (1.65/0.07) higher than that in the student population.Conclusions: The transmissibility of MTB remains high in the non-student population of the areas studied, which is still dominant in the spread of TB. TB transmissibility from the non-student-to-student-population had a strong influence on students. Specific interventions, such as TB screening, should be applied rigorously to control and to prevent TB transmission among students. | Qiuping Chen Shanshan Yu Jia Rui Yichao Guo Shiting Yang Guzainuer Abudurusuli Zimei Yang Chan Liu Li Luo Mingzhai Wang Zhao Lei Qinglong Zhao Laurent Gavotte Yan Niu Roger Frutos Tianmu Chen | 2022 | Infectious Diseases of Poverty2022，11，6： | 0 |
| 12 | Trends in Respiratory Infectious Pathogens in Children Under the Age of 14—Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China,2017-2023显示文摘Summary What is already known about this topic?Respiratory infections pose a significant burden on public health.Despite recent outbreaks occurring in various locations,there is limited information available on the prevalence trends of multiple common respiratory pathogens in China beyond 2022.What is added by this report? | Jiali Cao Jie Pan Xiaoqing Yang Jumei Liu Min Zhu Zeyu Zhao Ling Chen Tianmu Chen Huiming Ye | 2024 | China CDC weekly2024，6，8： | 0 |
| 13 | Natural history and cycle threshold values analysis of COVID-19 in Xiamen City,China显示文摘Objective:This study elaborated the natural history parameters of Delta variant,explored the differences in detection cycle thresholds(Ct)among cases.Methods:Natural history parameters were calculated based on the different onset time and exposure time of the cases.Intergenerational relationships between generations of cases were calculated.Differences in Ct values of cases by gender,age,and mode of detection were analyzed statistically to assess the detoxification capacity of cases.Results:The median incubation period was 4 days;the detection time for cases decreased from 25 to 7 h as the outbreak continued.The average generation time(GT),time interval between transmission generations(TG)and serial interval(SI)were 3.6±2.6 days,1.67±2.11 days and 1.7±3.0 days.Among the Ct values,we found little differences in testing across companies,but there were some differences in the gender of detected genes.The Ct values continuous to decreased with age,but increased when the age was greater than 60.Conclusion:This epidemic was started from aggregation of factories.It is more reasonable to use SI to calculate the effective reproduction number and the time-varying reproduction number.And the analysis of Ct values can improve the positive detection rate and improve prevention and control measures. | Bin Deng Weikang Liu Zhinan Guo Li Luo Tianlong Yang Jiefeng Huang Buasiyamu Abudunaibi Yidun Zhang Xue Ouyang Demeng Wang Chenghao Su Tianmu Chen | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，3： | 0 |
| 14 | Modeling Cross-Regional Transmission and Assessing the Effectiveness of Restricting Inter-Regional Population Movements in Controlling COVID-19-Xi’an City,Shaanxi Province,China,2021显示文摘Introduction:The aim of this study was to construct an assessment method for cross-regional transmission of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)and to provide recommendations for optimizing measures such as interregional population movements.Methods:Taking Xi’an City as the example subject of this study’s analysis,a Cross-Regional-Gravitational-Dynamic model was constructed to simulate the epidemic in each district of Xi’an under three scenarios of controlled population movement(Scenario 1:no intensive intervention;Scenario 2:blocking Yanta District on December 18 and blocking the whole region on December 23;and Scenario 3:blocking the whole region on December 23).This study then evaluated the effects of such simulated population control measures.Results:The cumulative number of cases for the three scenarios was 8,901,425,178,and 474,respectively,and the duration of the epidemic was 175,18,and 22 days,respectively.The real world prevention and control measures in Xi’an reduced the cumulative number of cases for its outbreak by 99.98%in comparison to the simulated response in Scenario 1;in contrast,the simulated prevention and control strategies set in Scenarios 2(91.26%)and 3(76.73%)reduced cases even further than the real world measures used in Xi’an.Discussion:The constructed model can effectively simulate an outbreak across regions.Timely implementation of two-way containment and control measures in areas where spillover is likely to occur is key to stopping cross-regional transmission. | Tianlong Yang Yao Wang Nankun Liu Guzainuer Abudurusuli Shiting Yang Shanshan Yu Weikang Liu Xuecheng Yin Tianmu Chen | 2022 | China CDC weekly2022，4，31： | 0 |
| 15 | Nowcasting and Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics—China,2022-2023显示文摘Background:Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023,causing a large number of hospitalizations.While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023.Methods:Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness(ILI)data for northern and southern regions of China,we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.Using this trained model,we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023.Results:We estimated the effective reproduction number Re as 1.08[95%confidence interval(CI):0.51,1.65]in northern China and 1.10(95%CI:0.55,1.67)in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza season.We estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51%(95%CI:0.00%,37.78%)in northern China and 28.30%(95%CI:14.77%,41.82%)in southern China.Conclusions:The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people. | Zhanwei Du Zengyang Shao Xiao Zhang Ruohan Chen Tianmu Chen Yuan Bai Lin Wang Eric H.Y.Lau Benjamin J.Cowling | 2023 | China CDC weekly2023，5，49： | 0 |
| 16 | Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province,China,1990-2021显示文摘Background:The incidence of hepatitis B virus(HBV)has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination,but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China.Methods:The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected.The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering,and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model(APC).Results:Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females.In addition,the results of the APC model showed that the age,period,and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV,and the incidence was higher in males than in females.The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years(mean:21.76/100,000),especially in males(mean:31.53/100,000)than in females(mean:11.67/100,000).Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age(mean:21.40/100,000),especially males(mean:31.17/100,000)than females(mean:11.63/100,000).The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population.Conclusions:The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend,but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females.The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age.More targeted prevention and control measures should be imple-mented for males and the elderly. | Kang Fang Yingying Shi Zeyu zhao Yunkang Zhao Yichao Guo Buasivamu Abudunaibi Huimin Qu Qiao Liu Guodong Kang Zhiguo Wang Jianli Hu Tianmu Chen | 2023 | Infectious Disease Modelling2023，8，3： | 0 |
| 17 | Advancements in Defining and Estimating the Reproduction Number in Infectious Disease Epidemiology显示文摘The reproduction number(R)serves as a fundamental metric in the examination of infectious disease outbreaks,epidemics,and pandemics.Despite an array of available methods for estimating,both newcomers and established public health professionals often encounter difficulties in comprehending the circumstances for their use and their constrictions.Consequently,this review intends to offer elementary guidance on’s selection and estimation approaches.To facilitate our review,we executed an extensive search on PubMed and Web of Science applying the following search approach:[“Basic Reproduction Number/classification”(Mesh)]AND[“Basic Reproduction Number/prevention and control”(Mesh)]OR[“Basic Reproduction Number/statistics and numerical data”(Mesh)]. | Kangguo Li Jiayi Wang Jiayuan Xie Jia Rui Buasiyamu Abudunaibi Hongjie Wei Hong Liu Shuo Zhang Qun Li Yan Niu Tianmu Chen | 2023 | China CDC weekly2023，5，37： | 0 |
| 18 | Analysis of the effect of PCR testing and antigen testing on controlling the transmission for Omicron based on different scenarios显示文摘After the policy adjustment,China no longer carries out COVID-19 PCR testing for all people,and antigen testing has become the main way to detect and manage infectious sources.We developed a dynamic model to evaluate and compare the effects between PCR and antigen testing for controlling the pandemic.Due to the increase of contact degree,the peak reduction effect of PCR testing in population is lower than that of antigen testing.Even if it was only 20%of people isolated at home after antigen testing,the peak of the epidemic could be reduced by 9.46%.If the proportion of antigen testing is further increased to 80%,the peak of the pandemic can be reduced by 31.41%.Antigen testing performed better effects in school(reduction proportion 29.27%)and community(29.34%)than in workplace(27.75%).Therefore,we recommend that antigen testing in the popu-lation should be encouraged during the pandemic,and home isolation of infected persons should be advocated,especially in crowded places.To improve the availability of antigen,the testing proportion should be further enhanced. | Wentao Song Buasiyamu Abudunaibi Zeyu Zhao Weikang Liu Xiaolan Wang Tianmu Chen | 2023 | Infectious Disease Modelling2023，8，4： | 0 |
| 19 | Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City,China:A modelling study显示文摘Objective:Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease,always occurring in winter and spring.In this study,we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics,transmissibility,and its correlation with meteorological variables.Method:A seasonal Susceptiblee Exposede Infectious/Asymptomatice Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number(Rt).Results:The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December.There was high transmission at the median of Rt¼1.091(ranged:0 to 4.393).Rt was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November.Correlations were found between temperature(Pearson correlation coefficient[r]ranged:from 0.101 to 0.115),average relative humidity(r¼0.070),average local pressure(r¼-0.066),and the number of new cases.In addition,average local pressure(r¼0.188),average wind speed(r¼0.111),air temperature(r ranged:-0.128 to-0.150),average relative humidity(r¼-0.203)and sunshine duration(r¼-0.075)were all correlated with Rt.Conclusion:A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City,leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps.Meteorological factors,especially air temperature and relative humidity,may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors. | Jie-feng Huang Ze-yu Zhao Wen-kui Lu Jia Rui Bin Deng Wei-kang Liu Tian-long Yang Zhuo-yang Li Pei-hua Li Chan Liu Li Luo Bin Zhao Yi-fang Wang Qun Li Ming-zhai Wang Tianmu Chen | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，2： | 0 |
| 20 | Computing R_(0) of dynamic models by a definition-based method显示文摘Objectives:Computing the basic reproduction number(R0)in deterministic dynamical models is a hot topic and is frequently demanded by researchers in public health.The nextgeneration methods(NGM)are widely used for such computation,however,the results of NGM are usually not to be the true R0 but only a threshold quantity with little interpretation.In this paper,a definition-based method(DBM)is proposed to solve such a problem.Methods:Start with the definition of R0,consider different states that one infected individual may develop into,and take expectations.A comparison with NGM has proceeded.Numerical verification is performed using parameters fitted by data of COVID-19 in Hunan Province.Results:DBM and NGM give identical expressions for single-host models with single-group and interactive Rij of single-host models with multi-groups,while difference arises for models partitioned into subgroups.Numerical verification showed the consistencies and differences between DBM and NGM,which supports the conclusion that R0 derived by DBM with true epidemiological interpretations are better.Conclusions:DBM is more suitable for single-host models,especially for models partitioned into subgroups.However,for multi-host dynamic models where the true R0 is failed to define,we may turn to the NGM for the threshold R0. | Xiaohao Guo Yichao Guo Zeyu Zhao Shiting Yang Yanhua Su Benhua Zhao Tianmu Chen | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，2： | 0 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员